Kmlwx

Valentine's 2007 was essentially a glacier for many many days after the storm. This coming event is much closer to the last week on the spectrum than anything close to Valentine's 2007...

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Think we could be looking at another Valentine's Day 2007 event?

No. This will be significantly less impressive than that. Probably much closer to our typical few inches of snow to slop type deals. 

I've driven from Columbia to Silver Spring this morning (around 4am) and just went from Silver Spring to Potomac and there is not a hazard to be found on the road other than wet pavement and stupidity. 

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Sorry - PVA signature?  Thanks in advance

Believe that would be positive vorticity advection (maybe?)

This looks closer to a severe t'storm threat than a winter storm for us

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed.  We gusted to 3 mph when it blew through Gaithersburg.  Picked up 0.07" rain.  Send prayers.

Probably enough to knock out 3K customers power.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Another terrible forecast.  So much for the cold front and wind of doom. Lol.

Line forming. Maybe you spoke too soon.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You could make some money for the board. Take up a collection with a target amount to get him banned. I guarantee you will hit the target quick!  Not kidding. 

At this point I'd think he's doing it just to get reactions. Either ban him or get everyone to ignore him or he's going to keep it up. 

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji and Ralph yelled fire

And Mdecoy apparently thinks the pattern change is still 2 weeks away...

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system.  PV phases in and drives the storm west.  Hopefully they and the op are too amped.

This post above is probably a good indication we are going to get shellacked

First big snow since moving to Columbia. We're on the 8th floor and I've lost my ruler so no official measurement. It's dumping out there the last hour, though. Looks like two reports near me of over 9 inches so I'd assume I'm around the same. 

38 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

I’m just pointing out the concern.  It’s definitely the best chance so far this year for a warning level event but given how things have transpired thus far it’s hard not to worry about what could go wrong.

You do realize that he is a professional meteorologist. If you want to butt heads with somebody - probably going to lose that battle going up against a red tagger and people like psuhoffman and Bob Chill. Yes...we can fail. Glad you're taking the ops and claiming "persistence" - the fact is we have a snowfall enroute for this weekend...that alone has broken your persistence theory. 

Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

Sure, the ensembles paint a prettier picture which is to be expected this far out.  All I’m saying is if the PV location is in central Canada, it’s going to be tough to snow.  Have to hope that’s wrong.

Wut...

That's now how that works. The ensembles are run with each member having slightly varied initial conditions. The ensembles don't automatically paint a better picture. 

Okay - I'm done. Thread can go back to normal programming. 

21 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward.  GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence?  A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period.  It forces early phases.  Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct.

Nobody is "acting like we're guaranteed to get slammed" - You really should post a little less. you're contributing almost nothing to the discussion at this point. 

The 20th is 9 days away. Glad that because the GFS and Euro show something similar it's locked in to be a cutter. If you're so sure that we are cooked for the 20th - why don't you just stop posting until the next threat pops in. There's nothing wrong with discussion - but if you're just going to pollute threads with crap don't post at all. 

Ever wonder why you rarely see me in threads during the winter until it's the obs thread? Because I know I don't have much to add and I'd just clutter the threads. A high post count doesn't make for a smarter poster. Don't go for quantity over quality...

I get it - we've all been there before. I was weenie tagged in the EUSWX days. Just take a step back...

ETA: you aren't even in the right subforum...if you're going to come into a subforum outside of your region...you need to at least be courteous of the other members. I don't come derail discussions in the PA forums. 

Fantastic write-up! Always enjoy reading your posts!

Party like it's 2007. 

Just now, Tenman Johnson said:

Ten man Johnson came Not from any idea about having the Johnson of 10 men but rather the old Tennessee Man that vexed WxRski for a while. I wanted to come back anonymously back then .

going back to Weather 53 would be good and if admins want to change it then let’s do it

I'm pretty sure you can change your own username in the user settings! 

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I slept in this morning. Woke up to a roller coaster in here. Probably going to be that way for another day or two before we can safely lock in win or fail. Of course, JI will wake up shortly and cancel the rest of winter. Maybe even next winter. 

You really think by Monday or Tuesday we'll be "locked in"? How long have you been in this hobby?

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you know how the Fv3 switch will impact the GEFS?  Are they switching the ensemble system over, if so how?  Resolution changes?  Just curious if you have any info on that.  GEFS is in desperate need of an upgrade. 

More members would be nice as well...but not sure they have the computing power available for that? 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The off hour runs only go out to 120 so in this case they aren't in range yet.  I'm just not used to having to go look at them either. Not part of the regular routine yet. But I am sure once legit threats pop up inside range people will start using them. No way weenies will just ignore anything. Well except the SREFs and that took over a decade to finally get people to stop bothering with that crap. 

Yoda will still post them but preceded by "FWIW" or "we take" 

06z FV3 looks like it goes for a Miller A at the end of the run hehe

1 minute ago, PDIII said:

This doesnt make any sense.. since when did the euro roll at 18Z?

Started a few weeks ago. 

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

dont expect it to be any better during model run times. you'll find information here faster than you will in real time on the website. 

If it's that slow and tough to navigate - I may bail on the subscription and just go back to getting PBP here...it isn't terrible so far but it's definitely not what I'd expect from a pay site. 

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

If you can figure out the navigation, let me know.  It’s a maze.

Yeah - I love the graphics - don't love the navigation. Page is also slow for me to load a bit. 

I broke down and bought a weathermodels.com subscription. Probably will let it cruise through March if the need arises. Pretty maps galore.