Kmlwx

Starting to think we'll have to wait for the stuff that the HRRR is insistent will come through around 1-2z

Just fired up a spare smartphone running a hyperlapse video capture looking north (and a bit west) of Columbia. Hoping to catch any CU growth and subsequent storm formation. 

Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later. 

LWX is very bullish it seems for Tuesday. SPC is less enthused. But that's not a concern...I just went back for nostalgia and was re-reading outlooks leading up to the June 2012 derecho and we weren't even in a risk from long leads. 

SLGT risk for tomorrow now - SPC indicates supercell development possible. 

Of note - the 12z CIPS analogs have a big signature for severe potential at the hour 132 mark 

5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

By the way, I think the high rise in that photo is Kenny's Columbia apartment building.  He wasn't kidding yesterday when he said that the funnel went right over his house.  Unfortunately, he wasn't there yesterday. 

STALKER

I honestly wouldn't have recognized my building from a panoramic photo with that lighting. I would have killed to watch the storm from my building...work sucks

5 hours ago, high risk said:

       @kmlwx     We were not in lockstep with today's storms.     Please get your act together for the next Step 2 event.     

  

I don't know what's gotten into me

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx

LWX seems to think Sunday could be another active day in their AFD if things come together 

 

 

I have no opinion yet. But it's been there a bit off and on - on the guidance. Wouldn't expect anything like today at this range. 

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@Kmlwxis right about June storms.  The need to rapidly generate their own cold pool and benefit from a strong EML to push them over the terrain and prevent downsloping.

Don't get me wrong - June and July can still be fierce...but the fail potential is a lot higher. We tend to do pulse severe (isolated) in later June and July. The time of year we are in right now is great for severe if we can get the stars to align. We still benefit I guess from shorter wavelengths and somewhat more potent low pressure systems. 

Absolutely NO scientific backing here - but after today I feel pretty good about some good chances at severe as we head towards summer. Now if only we can track some Mid-Atlantic tropical trouble in fall. Add a decent December snow and we'll have had it all

2 minutes ago, George BM said:

This afternoon actually seemed somewhat similar to though obviously nowhere near as widespread (wind gusts only into the 30s mph IMBY ) as the June 4, 2008 mid-afternoon event with a CAPE tongue through the region and decent enough 40-50+kt EB shear with storms decently strengthening as they got east of the mountains and into the metro region. Time of the day was similar as well though the June 4, 2008 event had more outages areawide if I remember correctly. The really impressive stuff was obviously more localized with this event.

100% agree. There were definitely similarities. That one was (as you said) way more intense/widespread but this one definitely had shades of that. That one (rightfully) was a moderate risk in our area. 

4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

If only this happened a month from now with higher dew points/temps with full sun from morning on and some extra sun altitude. There's no coincidence the derecho happened in late June. Could argue that's the absolute peak time to maximize a storm around here.

The one thing about earlier season events is they can have a lot more shear to work with. 

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The cell which moved from Winchester across northern Montgomery probably produced that. Cloud tops maxed out around 50kft which is a good size for this part of the country. 235k power outages in the DC area but that pales in comparison to the derecho where each county had about 240k in the dark for days.

Yeah - I mean beyond the two wind cores (Columbia and Downtown DC) this wasn't a widespread derecho-style damaging wind event. Nonetheless, it definitely wasn't as meager as it could have been. Really decent event considering the bust potential. SPC was a bit too north with their enhanced perhaps. Great work by them though maintaining the 30% wind when they could have dialed it back to 15%. 

This event was a "win" - glad there were no injuries in the Columbia house. 

9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I am walking the area of Shaker Drive right at the intersection of 29 and 32 and the post above with the helicopter is accurate. Immense amount of very inconsistent tree damage. Including a couple homes that are close  to comoletely  destroyed by falling trees. I might put a few bucks on there being something more than straight line winds here. 

Heard on the news the storm survey team will be out there. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this was okay.

Almost looks like serial bow echos (not using the D-word as it doesn't meet the criteria) - but with the Columbia bow and now the DC one. Cool radar signature.

Just now, supernovasky said:

What are our chances at a round 2?

This is going to stabilize us pretty good. HRRR says nothing after. Which is fine by me - this was a GREAT event for our area. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wow I take back what I said earlier.  Line is legit.  

It BLEW up once it hit the instability tongue. Good shear, halfway decent lapse rates - What a day. This is going to go down as one of the better events in recent memory. 

Lots of damage reports into EOC? 

I'd say based on the number of damage reports, this is going to be a verified ENH. A bit south of where the main area was outlooked. 

Any ground truth from Columbia? 

This is reminiscent of the "classic" solid lines of storms that some of us have discussed as being less common than in the 90s and earlier 2000s. 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

colleges need to stop tweeting weather advisories, wtf is this?

is UMBC even under a warning right now? 

UMD did something similar a few years back. Turns out they didn't use NWS warnings but used the Accuweather service instead. 

Well..if that was a TOR on the ground it went right over my apartment

Howard County cell might have 80mph winds with it based on velocity. Looks like easily 65mph+ based on velocity. 

Howard County is getting pounded according to radar. I'm seeing sime 60kt+ readings. 

Radar shows big wind nearing Dayton, MD

Doesn't look all that wound up so far.