Kmlwx

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it's nice.  We'll have a kicked plus the airmass.

 

Wonder if the usual spots (around Potomac etc) where winds sometimes get a little more backed due to local factors could enhance a tor threat. 

Either that or perhaps some factor that could back the winds a bit more isn't being seen yet. Nonetheless, I like the sounds of a day 2 ENH with decent discussion wording. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I am squarely between those 2 locations and don't feel good about it at all, lol

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

Just now, yoda said:

Woah... 1730 SPC discussion is

 

Seems fairly standard - I guess the comment at the end is unusual - but they are saying they don't think we will achieve that given the unidirectional wind. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm in for now.  Going to wait until late tomorrow morning before going all in or not.

I think at the very least storms should be more widespread than today. Intensity TBD...but it still looks like enough fuel and shear will be around. Nice stretch we've had for parts of the area. Wish I had been at my apartment for the Columbia TOR. 

Just now, yoda said:

Appears you have made a good call about tomorrow... entire LWX CWA included in SLGT risk in 1730 SPC OTLK... ENH risk for all of S PA and all of MD and N VA and DC

Even Thursday is looking decent on recent sim reflectivity. But I think tomorrow might be the main show. Lots of ENH this year so far. This year has been fun so far...loved the Saturday storms in Columbia. 

So what happens when EJ is in and Kmlwx is out? The @WxWatcher007 scale is broken now. 

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

$20 says they red box to the Potomac River.  We are PRIMED if something can fire on its own down here.

Oh snap. 

ETA: I'd feel pretty good about my storm odds today if I was in Lancaster/Millersville this PM. 

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

Is 12 good or bad? 

It is quite high for this area. Doesn't mean much without forcing, though. 

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

nothing south of the potomac.  Im out

I still think most of us are out

Worth noting the ARW and ARW2 are much more robust with storms (especially across northeastern parts of the CWA). 

I'm still on board for tomorrow. 

Shocked that meso covers so far into Maryland. Includes Howard County entirely. 

 SPC mesoanalysis has supercell composite parameter of 12 in a pocket over the area. 

The 14z HRRR has pretty much nothing of interest south of the M/D line this afternoon/evening. 

ETA: But the extended HRRR (12z) looks great for tomorrow. 

June is definitely out "big league" month it seems. Though really anytime April through July can go big with the right ingredients. Once we get into July though it seems things go more towards pulse severe as shear tends to be harder to come by.

Hopefully June brings continued chances at tracking. Best part about severe season is that I tend not to give *too* much look at day 4 and beyond other than glancing at general setups and the day 4-8 outlook. None of this chasing snowstorms from 14 days out kind of things

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i like wednesday if we can get into a classic hazy, humid day.  i think tomorrow morning is just some leftover scraps, so i'm expecting mostly showers, but weather has surprised me before, so who knows.  i do think wednesday has better potential overall.

IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit. 

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Enhanced just north of the Pa line . Not much of a shift needed for northern neck to get in on the goods. 

 

Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA. 

SPC thinks PA is ground zero around here tomorrow. And other than the morning stuff, the NAM, NAM nest and HRRR (long range) are not enthused. I'm out for now. 

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       yeah, although NAM synoptics for Tuesday don't match up well with the GFS.      NAM front is slower.

I'll cross my fingers and hope for persistence - good storms lately so hopefully our luck continues. 

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

SARS is off the charts silly for hail at 21z TUES at KDCA

Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though. 

One more

Radarscope has a TVS on the most intense part of the line 

Yeah it looks like the evening stuff is getting going. Let's see how it does with lowering instability/loss of daytime heating.