Kmlwx

12z CIPS maps actually had some moderate risk days in the mix of analogs. June 4, 2008 is showing up too  

But also some other older events with moderate risks or a decent number of reports locally. 

I see it on CIPS. Though it's not a meaty signal as of yet. We take what we can get - it's been on the boring side lately! 

3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I don’t pay for pivotal and the ads are annoying but liveable. The annoying part is when the page refreshes and I have to move my cursor from a location I’m analyzing to click the scroll bar so i can arrow key over again.

For sure. I feel like every single model site has some weird quirk that is awful and really tough to get used to. I love the CoD site except that it seems to lag behind sometimes - but it's a higher education site...so I'm not going to be picky. I know some will say the CoD interface is outdated but I love it...simple and you know what you're doing no matter what. 

Maybe I can ditch Pivotal then. I already bailed on WeatherBell because of their price hike. Pivotal has been pretty good, though. 

Photographers out there...B-52 is going to do a low flyover of Arlington Cemetery around 11:40 apparently. The aircraft is currently holding over the Calvert County area. Anybody from from JB Andrews WNW to Alexandria/Arlington and then just NW of Arlington may get a photo-op from this. People farther out - it will depend how the aircraft departs the area. Guessing MoCo is out of luck as this airframe will probably head back to Barksdale after. 

The HRRR is actually kind of solid for some of us this afternoon/evening. But almost none of the other guidance seems to agree with it. 6z NAM 3km was snooze worthy and so were the ARW twins. 
ETA: The HRDPS is pretty okay as well. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

SPC 1300z OTLK is MRGL for most of LWX CWA for 5% wind

#derechoredux

Bit of thunderstorm activity to the west of the metros. Obviously sub-severe - but rumbles would be cool.

It will work only because we failed so badly during winter. 

That would be SO fitting....take away my snowfall contest win as well  

What in the world  

CIPS and GFS are pretty quiet for the next couple weeks it looks like...so unless something sneaks up on us we may be back in snooze mode. The cooler weather coming back probably will squash instability and preclude any spring severe while it's around. I'm hoping for a last hard freeze to cut down on some of the bugs already out ugh. 

We'll have to see what late April and early May hold for thunder chances

The storms near Capon Bridge actually have had an uptick in lightning production. 

Meh

The few chances we've had already this year have been failing on timing. We need something to come through during peak hearing or just after and also not while we are wedged north of a warm front. 

Pouring in Colesville, MD

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's pathetic...we're wasting a really, really good setup here because of bad timing.

You got me a little more enthused when you said this storm wouldn't go quietly...but yeah the timing sucks. It has looked pretty meh for us from the get go. 

12 minutes ago, high risk said:

  You have a VERY generous definition of "central".     

I was thinking the same thing after I read his message and then looked at the map lol

Meh

Bullish! 

12z FV3 actually looks pretty good on sim reflectivity. 

LWX mentions lack of instability...which we already knew would be the issue here. Few good analogs still showing up in CIPS at the 72hr frame. Better timing/better instability with this probably would have allowed for a pretty sizeable severe risk. I don't really see anything to suggest major changes from what we are expecting though. Gusty line of showers/storms Thur night seems like a good bet, though. 

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

A couple of downfalls of the trip

 

1.  Waze sucks.  I deleted the app... On the way home it took me through Youngstown

2. Why does PA have one lane closed from Breezewood to the MD line with no roadwork being done on I-70?

3.  Why would MD close two lanes going up South Mountain knowing that traffic would be heavy.

 

With that all being said, I would to it again tomorrow.

First time driving through PA?  

12z CIPS guidance is a lot of nothing and still a few eye opening ones lower on the list. Apr 16, 2011 is still showing up, February 2016 is showing up  and then a few less widespread events as well. 

The 18z GFS suggests more like a 3z arrival of a "line" of storms on Thur night. That 3 hour difference could help a bit.