Kmlwx

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure on severe parameters but 12z mesos look good for storms generally 

The longer range 12z HRRR looked really solid....

Funny how sometimes we don't get a watch until there's a consolidating/existing line of storms well into the area. Other times there's hardly anything on radar except at the outskirts and we get a watch. 

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

FYI:

pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf

To save you a click, the topic is about "Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26, 2025."

I guess this is good if it's accurate  - maybe not so good if it's not so hot. 

I didn't see the HRRR referenced in that PDF - is that continuing? 

Okay I've had enough summer now. Time for fall!  

My PWS is reporting (likely incorrectly) a dew point over 80F lol

27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

PWS has already picked up 101 lightning strikes and counting. Sub-severe here but POURING and tons of thunder. Messy looking radar as well. Appetizer for tomorrow? 

Now showing 251! 

You know we are out of skinny CAPE season when we are seeing echo tops at or above 50kft. 

PWS has already picked up 101 lightning strikes and counting. Sub-severe here but POURING and tons of thunder. Messy looking radar as well. Appetizer for tomorrow? 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Borrowed from @WxWatcher007

 

If we ever get a 60% wind for us I will promptly perish. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week. 

Thursday seems as though it may carry potential - but it's ages away. 

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but even with our small area it's still more scattered than not (think of how many times a line crosses the mountains and splits north or south). @Kmlwx give me an assist here, lol

 - I was like - I don't remember posting recently in obs! 

Cool looking outflow on radar as well!

Just now, yoda said:

45%... impressive indeed 

From watching this tool this spring so far - it seems like it way overdoes things - I'm not even sure it works on the same percentages as SPC...so take those maps with a grain (or a handful) of salt. I've been using it more of a "first look" at which days to look at closer. 

The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) 

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

39 minutes ago, coolio said:

Thunderstorms. 

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1933194649457262720

 

"EXCLUSIVE!" 

June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well.

Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit. 

CIPS has casually been showing June 4, 2008 in the analogs (not the top one at all) for the upcoming period. Not giving it much thought for now - but we'll see if we can squeeze some storms out. 

Cool radar today - lots of storms moving in different directions.

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon

A new site or something even cooler (micronet?!?!?!)

FWIW - HRRR has been awful at initializing the storms to the west. 

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs  

I'm actually sort of intrigued at Sunday evening. The timing seems a bit off and it's not clear that areas (especially NE of the Potomac) will be unstable enough - but 12z NAM nest really fires a lot of storms mainly west and south of the metros. It would align well with CIPS honking - but not sure there's a ton of support. Good indication of missing ingredients. 

CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs  

Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 

2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. 

We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days. 

I remember being in 6th period newspaper and itching to go home (I lived right through the woods). Literally sprinted (also had to take a leak because the bathrooms at school sucked LOL) and made it home with just enough time to track the line rolling in. I remember seeing tons of tree debris flying through the air. As bad as 6/4/2008 was - I think it was outclassed by the 2012  derecho pretty easily. 

CIPS has a bit of a signature for severe around 120hr. 

One thing I've seen relatively consistently this spring so far is analogs from 1998 being peppered into the mix. That was a really robust spring.