Kmlwx

Line segment between Rosedale and Clay in WV looks nice! 

15 minutes ago, George BM said:

That MRGL has since been expanded east across the region for the 13z update.

SPC playing catchup. It's June 29, 2012!!!

Tracking *something* (even a pencil thin squall) would be fun and a welcome break from the winter crap-tracking. Obviously it's early for anything super beefy - but stranger things have happened. I personally think one reason severe tracking is a bit more "civil" and "tame" than the winter stuff is other than my stupid CIPS posting, we really don't look much beyond 8 days (from the D4-8 outlook) for severe. Save for a major signal, like 95% of our severe threat windows pop up within 7 days - and often more like inside 5 days. 

We aren't pattern hunting for weeks looking for a hint of severe. Add in that you can get a rogue pulse storm that wipes out 1000 trees and sneaky stuff is all around. 

Not looking forward to bugs and heat...but I sure as heck am ready to end the boredom of tracking nothing. 

Is there ducting going on?

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has a really good objective track record. Even without Ellinwood or Ian posting much of something legit is on the way the usually come back to post. 

Not to mention their ideas can generally be found elsewhere on the interwebs as well! I just hope we don't drop into a months long doldrum of boring weather. I can deal with little stretches of beautiful weather...but prolonged stretches get BORING. 

Hopefully we get some nasty freezes late season to cut down on the mosquito populations 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@Kmlwx

The timeless scale. Each person has to be on board for the step to be activated. 
 

It just never fails  

10 minutes ago, George BM said:

Unsolicited local severe outbreak rankings IMO since 2000:

MCSs:

1. June 29, 2012

2. June 4, 2008

3. August 26, 2003

Tornadoes:

1. September 17, 2004

2. September 24, 2001

3. April 28, 2002

Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012 

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Yea, that should probably be KMLWX.  He'll know when it's time.  It's probably a little early.

Edit: He did create it in December of 2022 for '23, though.  Shows what kind of winter we had last year lol.

Done  

It's early, but might as well do the annual severe thread (people were talking about it in the long range thread!). 

I don't have the @WxWatcher007 scale handy on this computer - but I usually post it for posterity for the upcoming severe season. Anything from discussing past events to potential upcoming patterns/analogs, and discussion about more specific upcoming threats can be posted in here. A while ago we stopped doing event-specific severe threads for most things. Whether we do that or not - this is the general thread. 

Have at it! 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical. 

It almost makes me wonder if some piece of "bad" data either from an aircraft or a 0z sounding did something odd. Though I think somebody else mentioned it's been a trend for a few runs. 

35.8/26.2 right now in Colesville. 

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I’ll be furious if I get less than 2”.

 

 

LOVE the Crooked Crab! Tasty pizza there too! 

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good thing we are running out of time for the continuing north trend lol.

New technology was just announced by NCEP to be able to insert a north trend after the event has already happened. Wiping memories of snow and erasing actual accumulation from the space/time continuum 

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wonder when they’ll issue hoist warnings?

Fixed

15-25" - final call - area wide with l isolated jackpots to 30"

0" though for Winchester and immediate surroundings. Sorry folks  

The temp drop here seems to have slowed/stopped right around 33ish degrees. Very pretty out watching this band come down though. 

Mirroring what others have posted from their stations. Accelerated drop when the precip started back up after the dryslot. Almost down to 33 now. 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Mixing with snow here. 
 

Yoda, Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay?  You can pay in installments too.  But there’s a 20 fee and interest is 125% 

That's brutal dude! lol

Down to 34.2 and flakes coming down pretty hard. No accumulation as of yet. 

Just now, EHoffman said:

Hmmmm does it snow at 40 degrees????

I've seen snow at 45-50 even - but the warm layer was exceedingly shallow in those cases. 

Still 37.9 in Colesville. 

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same. 44.2/43.9

Actually seemingly stuck now after losing a few degrees with sunset. I guess it's better than having to wait from 60 degrees...my expectations are essentially zero for MBY. 

43.7 temp and 43.3 dewpoint. Slowly ticking down. 

19 hours ago, Jebman said:

I am perfectly positioned for this puppy.

Host us 

@Maestrobjwa - If you're going to hone in on dates and calendars to backup your point...you should also take into account that a year isn't truly 365 days. Hence why we have leap years. So really it could be said that each year is never identical to the last - thus throwing off your calendar date patterns.