Kmlwx
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Posts posted by Kmlwx
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18z NAM at range...(FWIW) - brings a line through around 6z Friday morning. That timing absolutely sucks. April 2011 was showing up on some of the analogs. Probably a very minor version of that...minus the like 12+ hours of Tornado Watches
Had instability been better - or the timing maybe this could have been a bigger deal. We'll see if things shift/adjust at all as we close.
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4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:
These are great shots. Any experts here that can comment on that "spot" just to lower left of the center of the sun? What exactly is that?
Unrelated -- it's interesting how "big" the sun actually is when you view it through eclipse glasses, unimpeded by the nearly blinding nature of it when attempting to glance at it via the naked eye.
The dot on the sun? That's a sunspot currently bubbling up on the sun! I think at last check the magnetic field of it was pretty stable, though - so not a big risk for flares.
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From Colesville, MD.
ETA: This was achieved using an 8" dobsonian telescope (not motorized) w/42mm eyepiece and an S24 Ultra manually held up to the eyepiece in 200 megapixel mode. 9.25" solar filter used on the tube itself. Crude astrophotography is definitely possible using less than stellar setups. Just have to have the patience. Non-motorized/computer controller telescopes like this are sub-$600 and some are much lower even. Downside is the 30-50 pounds of weight they can carry with them.
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Good skies in Colesville for the moment...
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It's the NAM at range...and the 12k at that...but it has a formidable line of activity well to our west Thur evening. But the timing appears to suck. We'd need that to either speed up a bit or slow down by a day (to bump into Friday) to maximize potential. As it stands, still think this ends up as a typical "too early" even that *could* have been bigger.
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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:
At least I got a great breakfast.
I see there's some tomatoes eclipsing your breakfast there. Annular eclipse of the breakfast.
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CIPS is more muted now but still a signal. The few beefy events it had have dropped down lower in the list. I think between timing issues and still early season this will be marginal at best for us.
Still... Dynamic systems haven't shut off so if atmospheric memory exists it could still hint at an active late April/May.
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42 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:
Pretty sure clouds will still exist in 2027. Get in the car and go to central Ohio. Enjoy!
Yeah but at least it would be a trip to Italy and a cruise. Plus... The boat can adjust course to hopefully better setup the day of.
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12z CIPS guidance was honking pretty hard for the last panel (hr 132). One or two beefy events in there (including Apr 2011)
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I just canceled my Keene, NH hotel reservation (had that as a "launching point" for a possible Maine trek). Based on distance and people commenting about poor road options in rural Maine...just not worth it.
I still have a Binghamton, NY hotel reservation that's cancelable until midnight tonight...but that precip and cloudiness is precarious.
I'm getting close to just risking it and using my solar filter/telescope to observe this one from MBY in Maryland and then saving up/booking an Italy-->Greece eclipse cruise for 2027.
Also...there's some homeland security warnings about eclipse gatherings being soft targets for potential malicious actors...don't doubt it with local law enforcement dealing with crowds swelling to many times normal amounts.
It sucks having this cut through places not too far from here but it being logistically very tough. I missed totality in 2017 by about 8 miles...I vowed to not let this happen this time but it might be less stressful (but much pricier) to plan internationally for 2026/27). I wish we all had the money and means to go chase every eclipse...
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10 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:
Yeah just sharing the experience with our daughter is the big thing. The ZoT is only 15 or so miles away from where we're staying so if the traffic isn't that bad we'll tool on up to Rome or something. But I hate traffic; deal with enough of that around here. And I hate port-a-potties. And I don't like doing my number-one business on some stranger's property without their permission.
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28 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:
clouds won't matter because you're not in the zone of totality.
It still matters for observing the eclipse (even without totality). But yes it won't get dark like totality will.
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29 minutes ago, TSG said:
Not to be a bummer but anything short of totality just isn't worth making the trip. That 0.3% makes it a completely different experience. I would recommend finding a spot within the path you can drive to without hitting too many major roads.
This. But I think I see where he's coming from - at least there's a family connection. But yeah...if you are at 99.9 even - might as well just stay home and watch it with 80-90 percent totality through a solar filtered telescope or glasses.
But he's seeing family so I see the approach.
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:
Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key
I bought little sleeves that you can pee into and it absorbs. Now if there's a #2 situation....outta luck. I bet most public bathrooms in the totality path are going to be overcrowded and disgusting.
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Stream gauge near here level out right around 6ft on the dot. But expect it could begin rising again as the precip from the SW arrives. Ground is WATERLOGGED here - lots of standing water in areas that normally absorb relatively fine.
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Getting near 6ft on the stream gauge near me.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=clam2
Good rise today so far.
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MUCAPE is on the rise per mesoanalysis...even if SBCAPE remains nada.
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3 minutes ago, yoda said:
Surprising the sun has appeared here
Does not look like it will be long lasting. Small patch of clearing in VA and then back to clouds it looks like
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I'm interested to see if we keep getting dynamic systems into alter April and May. That could aid in increasing severe potential for our area.
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1 minute ago, yoda said:
Afternoon update (1730z OTLK) from SPC is late... wonder if the SLGT risk will be pulled back west some at all
Could also be late if they are devoting most of their attention to active severe threat(s) today.
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Just now, George BM said:
Verbatim... probably an elevated supercell/multicellular cluster w/ hail. Surface temps in the upper 40s locally at that time.
UH swath on it weakens considerably as it approaches too - that could hint that it is weakening at the time.
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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:
The OP GFS is the most aggressive in bringing the 500 low east, over Iowa on Monday. The Euro is way west, on the ND/MT border. The GEFS is over ND, with still some good spread in the ensemble members. West doesn’t “save” NY since there still may be a cirrus deck, but it is a lot better than the low going east where it brings lower clouds into play with precip nearby.
If there's a thin or high cloud deck - that might be okay. Obviously clear is best - but supposedly with a thinner or higher deck there can be some pretty cool effects...
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24 minutes ago, high risk said:
Wednesday is pretty interesting. The shear will be off of the charts, and wind damage and tornadoes seem possible in any sustained surfaced-based storms. But how far north will the low-level warm air get? Pretty good agreement it makes it into southern MD and also pretty good agreement that it doesn't make it north of the DC Beltway. The in-between zone (including DC) has a fair amount of uncertainty.
I've mostly written off both days for MBY - hoping for the unicorn of elevated storms with some hail. HRRR looked pretty good honestly...but we know how that goes.
Hoping for some better push of the warm air. But yes - it does't look great for DC northward.
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13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy.
And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path
April 8th Eclipse- Last Easy One To See In My Lifetime
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
My PWS registered a 3-4 degree drop in temperature and a big time drop in sunlight/solar radiation. BUT - there were quite a few clouds streaming in too so the drop was also caused by that.