Kmlwx

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is anyone else watching the nam to extrapolate out to hour 120?

We really need the DGEX back

1 hour ago, EHoffman said:

Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation.  That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC.  I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff.  That's what we need.  But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle.

Never change! 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe he meant "folks" in the literal sense? Like "active users" or something? I dunno 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

whoa..Good luck man!

Thank you! I was adopted when I was 4 months old so I figured at 32 might as well! Sooo much paperwork (South Korea). They said it could be 3-9 months. Maybe by my birthday in September I'll hear something! 

I just started a birth parent search! The more tasks and embers you can put in the fire to distract from snow the better!

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 - I don't have many "wall of text" moments on here...but when I do I try to make them count  

Heck...I don't have ANY social life and I'd like to think I'm a lot better mentally about snow than I was 15 years ago. I'm also a lot more cynical (see my snow contest guess(es)) 

@Maestrobjwa - 

Have never had an issue with you and I try really hard not to judge people's style and such. But I will say that I, for one do appreciate that over the last year or two you truly seem to have been trying to learn concepts and stuff. 

The biggest advice I will give you - and in no part of this post do I mean any malice or ill will - is that like you said in the other thread...weather is weather - we can't really change it or do anything about it. Weather doesn't care if you're due. Weather doesn't care if you "deserve" snow. Weather doesn't care if you got screwed by 50 snowstorms and are depressed. 

The best advice that I got when I started on Eastern in the 2000s was that you don't have to reply to every post or topic or concept. It's okay to just read. The more you post is not going to trigger the butterfly effect to "will" a snowstorm closer. 

It is OK to just let other folks carry the thread. I too get REALLY bummed out when we miss snowstorms. You'll notice that I largely go silent in the winter here - but I certainly am in here DAILY and quietly obsessing about the snow potential. I've gotten better over the years - but I will admit I in fact do get bummed when stuff doesn't work out. 

But I found a long time ago that the more I posted, the worse my "need" to have snow to be happy got. You have some options here - and it's not even a complete list. 

- Try new hobbies - I've been spotting foxes and animals in my backyard lately and it's been a blast with trailcams and stuff. Way higher success rate than snow chasing too! I also picked up plane spotting in the past few years. Again, not saying THOSE specifically, but they are both more redeeming a lot of times than weather tracking. 

- Get into more diverse weather. We fail a ton at summer/spring severe weather too...but at least by making it more flexible as to the type of weather that interests me - it's not just snow. 

- CHASE the snow if you have the means to do so. I know we can't all pack up like Bob Chill and go to multiple locations. But if you have the means, do it. 

We are unfortunately warming. We don't need to over that. But if you are solely attached to big snow that you "deserve" you're going to have deep depression in the years to come I fear. Gotta take the wins we get and hope for the best. No amount of posting or hand wringing is going to change what Mother Nature wants to do. 

But I want to reiterate - I truly appreciate that you've been trying to learn and improve. 

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think I figured out what I didn't like under the hood. My best guess right now based on everything I see is the pattern flip will preceded by a west track rain/front sometime around the 12-15th then we go dry for a bit and wait for something to undercut the pna. Guidance is kinda dry after the trough hits and it seems to last. If the northern stream is quiet and all precip events are lower slower southern stream waves, there's typically a 5-7 day gap in between. Maybe the goods are still a week beyond where ens guidance ends. Looking forward to the flip getting closer so I can track analog guidance. Analogs still look pretty bad irt snow chances 

 

I peeked at the CPC analogs yesterday and yeah they were some turds. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I expect a mix of March 58 Feb 83 and 2010 but the intensity of 1993. 

Don't tempt the weenies. 

Omg!!! I haven't even been following since I submitted my entry. I was wondering why I got tagged in here. It won't hold  

Will be sad to see this event end. Really nice day! 

Hopefully we don't go to shut the blinds for *too* long. 

Two over performers in one week is nothing to sneeze at, though

Already lightening up here in Colesville - streamer is losing a bit of the punch it seems. 

Not going to get to another half inch unless it picks up again. Just a bit of a refreshed dusting maybe tenth of an inch. 

Flake size increased in this streamer (Colesville, MD). Last hurrah probably! Great way to end the day - probably iwll have to do a little light broom work on the driveway later on (shoveled earlier). 

I think for today's event so far I ended up right around 4.5" 

Snow depth (including the leftovers from early week is like 6-7 inches depending on the undisturbed areas I checked. 

Streamers finally coming across the Potomac! 

Do these just fall under the WSW or will they get snow squall warnings? Assuming it's just part of the WSW since it's already in effect for snow. 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I'm done with this. Driveway is almost completely melted after I shoveled a few hours ago. Been basically nothing since 11. Let's see if we can get under some nice streamers. Looks like they might be a bit too far west and northwest but we shall see.

Light rates and sun through clouds. If you wanted it to stick around you shouldn't have shoveled  

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Those squalls look legit.

I want to get parked under a training streamer. 

17z HRRR run continues the threat for those pop up snow showers/streamers later. They're going to be narrow - but somewhere within 15-20 miles of the Potomac seems like a good bit. 

There's definitely some exposed road where the heaviest salt was now that rates are lighter and the sun is up higher. Unless I get under another band or it darkens a bit - the non snow covered surfaces aren't going to get stickage very well now. 

This blob seems to have mainly been focused south and west of DC!

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

SHHH they think fringed isn't a real thing. 

But in the long run we will do better.  I had a nice event in Dec that most missed.  But my big advantage is in marginal temp storms, not setups like this.  You win some you lose some, but yea its been a rough couple of years up here.  2022 was actually decent down south but up here it was way below avg.  Hope people remember this when I get some 12" wet snow bomb in March that is mostly rain in DC and they don't come up here with pitchforks.  

They won't. We are snow weenies and are mostly irrational. Ji might even put a turd in your mailbox or something. 

Measurement area cleared again and measured an additional 1" since last clearing. Total of around 4" here in Colesville, MD so far. Radar looks more splotchy right now - but this is a great event given how it looked a mere few days ago. Wow! really pulling to get under a convective snow shower later on! 

Round of shoveling done. So pretty outside. The existing snowpack definitely makes this overperformer even better.