Kmlwx

You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z. 

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

I don't think the sun is what will get us the storms today, guys.

Agree - but more fuel for the fire. 

Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween. 

30% of EF2+ whoa...

"A couple of intense tornadoes possible"

17z HRRR brings a nice looking updraft helicity swath through western parts of the DC area. Like western Montgomery County. 

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......

Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps.

Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. 

If we get sun I wonder if we get an outlook upgrade at 20z. I doubt it - I think we are at the max SPC would go for a late season event. But it's never out of the question. 

Satellite shows some pockets of clearing ahead of the line associated with the tornado watch. Question will be whether that becomes clouded over more with stuff popping ahead of the line...or will the clearing sustain and move over our area later on. In my mind, any clearing is just bonus instability. 

The RAP has 47kts of 0-1km shear for a time in some areas this PM. That's legit. 

Pretty good slug of rain in the Rockville/Potomac area right now. Hope we can get a peak of sunshine or two to boost instability even more. Let's go big. 

WOW - That is a bold Outlook from SPC for this late in the year. Let's shoot for a moderate at 20z  

That's a pretty strongly worded meso discussion for October on the east coast. 

RAP (FWIW) has like 1000 CAPE. Instability has been trending upward more. A few days ago I thought we'd be lucky to get 500J/KG

I pulled a sounding from the 12z 3km NAM and it had a 500 value for 0-1km SRH  it was 800 for 0-3km I think. That's absurd. 40+kts of shear in the 0-1km range. 

EF-5 tracing the beltway during the end of rush hour. Mark my words. 

2 hours ago, southmdwatcher said:

 

That is a very large 5% Tornado risk area

 

That's probably broadbrushed due to the general large area of risk. Maybe more of a CYA than anything. But large 5% TOR can sometimes be a prelude to a little 10% area being introduced later. 

I think Reed Timmer was a bit much last night...

Just now, losetoa6 said:

What product is that? 

Just now, yoda said:

Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027

There was a tornado watch just south of LWX in October of last year (10/11)

Just now, mappy said:

everyone should make sure they have ways to receive warnings regardless of when and what day it is. 

my comment was about the "potentially dangerous" part, at the time of the AFD. I personally don't see it being potentially dangerous minus a QLCS tornado or two. 

@mappy - WOW SO JUDGEY. ALL TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. How dare you undermine QLCS cutie tornadoes. 

@yoda - I'm in for "interesting weather" other than what we've been getting lately with just sun or rain. I'm *not* in for a widespread damaging event. LWX in typical fashion will find a way to issue 30+ SVRs tomorrow though (I kid in good fun)  

VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is 

A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday

43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's buried in a disorganized website that needs a UI overhaul.

Does Horst have plans to get that updated to a cleaner interface? 

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Millersville University runs their tweaked in house WRF and it's a nice alternative for us here

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wrf/wrf.php

Sweet! Thanks! Not sure how I had no idea about this. 

I miss the locally run LWX models for the weenie factor. We had like 3 extra models to look at for severe. 

The trend definitely seems to have been to bump CAPE values up a bit. I'm seeing numbers of 500 to almost 1000 in some soundings. I might be in - depending on model runs today.