Kmlwx

I just hope we can manage something a little more exciting to track this year than our normal pencil thin squall lines. Ring of fire pattern could be interesting...or anything with a big low going to our west with a little low developing close in. 

With this travesty of a winter...I really can't wait until this becomes the dominant thread in a few months. Time is just ticking by. Until then, I'm just hoping for a late hard freeze or two to help cut down on the bugs. 

One thing to consider for us severe weenies...the wind event we are just getting through might be the biggest severe event of 2018

No mention from SPC - which is usually a good sign we're primed for EF-5 tornadoes. 

There was discussion in the Mid-LR thread earlier about La Nina years and severe seasons. Figure that can go in here - so bumping the thread for reference. 

Some heavier showers to the north in Carroll - that looks like the only show in town right now. 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering it's Jan....fairly widespread reports of TL would be a win in my book. Won't really know how that's going to go until radar lights up (or doesn't). 

This 100%. I'm just happy to even get a mention in the SPC outlook in January (on day 2 no less). I haven't even started to look at potential analogs for our severe season yet. Hopefully Ian chimes in with some encouraging odds for out Mid-Atlantic wedge risk. 

And remember - these things like to be a bit earlier than expected...so timing probably isn't great for max threat. 

GFS for 15z tomorrow - supercell composite parameter. Indicative of at least a little instability and some shear. SPC thinks there's a chance for a couple instances of damaging winds despite the overall tempered threat. It's all we have to track for now...

Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. 

As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate  

Ready? Go.

My greatest life accomplishment - Starting the thread about our regions biggest earthquake in recent times on a weather board.

Can you imagine if the December storm from that winter had happened closer to this one and the one on the 9th/10th? We would have had like 50-70 inches of snow on the ground lol. 

We are a bunch of weenies

I especially like how I was clearly just sitting at the computer that day given that I posted a minute after the quake

EDIT: less than a minute

omg. I forgot I was the one who started this thread.

Pattern in the aftershocks

MAP	2.4	2011/08/25 15:27:47	 37.951	 -77.924	 0.1	 6 km ( 4 mi) S of Mineral, VA
MAP	2.3	2011/08/25 06:37:31	 37.912	 -77.969	 0.1	 12 km ( 7 mi) SSW of Mineral, VA
MAP	4.5	2011/08/25 05:07:50	 37.940	 -77.896	 5.0	 7 km ( 5 mi) S of Mineral, VA
MAP	2.5	2011/08/25 04:06:47	 37.923	 -77.988	 0.1	 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Louisa, VA
MAP	3.4	2011/08/24 04:45:26	 37.925	 -77.994	 4.9	 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Louisa, VA
MAP	4.2	2011/08/24 00:04:36	 37.912	 -77.951	 7.9	 11 km ( 7 mi) SSW of Mineral, VA
MAP	2.2	2011/08/23 19:20:26	 37.911	 -78.004	 0.1	 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Louisa, VA
MAP	2.8	2011/08/23 18:46:50	 37.931	 -77.935	 0.1	 9 km ( 5 mi) SSW of Mineral, VA
MAP	5.8	2011/08/23 17:51:04	 37.936	 -77.933	 6.0	 8 km ( 5 mi) SSW of Mineral, VA

two little ones between each larger one. The 3.4 didn't fit though I guess. But still - now this is HARD evidence that the next one is going to rock the entire area

2.7 out in WV. Looks unrelated.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/se082511a.php

Chopper just went over - thought we were going to die again.

No. Not because it's 24 hrs later at least. I would think we could get a 4.5-5 or so tho still.

5.0 might be pushing it. Especially since we've seen 4.2 as the highest thus far. I guess anything is possible. I was actually holding out for a 6.0.

Thats pretty significant, surprised we havent seen more aftershocks, thought there'd be a few more.

I think the profile might be a bit different than west coast quakes given the different fault configurations etc (I am by no means an expert though). Might have a more gradual aftershock profile - rather than a bunch quickly fizzling we might have one or two for the next few weeks (each week that is).

Ian I've heard stupid info on the news an aftershock is expected today due to it being 24 hours ago involving something in relation to the fault, any credibility to the news people?

An aftershock is possible I guess but certainly not an expected thing. I could be wrong, but that sounds a bit out there to me.

I should change the thread title -

earthquake and forum quake

School damage reported in Fairfax and DC. So yeah..again...your dumb slam about PRINCE GEORGES county is about as structurally sound as your post.

Frederick Co. is telling some staff members to report to alternate buildings so I think they sustained some damage too.

Earthquakes are not fun -- people only say that in retrospect. I never imagined I'd have that split second feeling of "is this going to keep getting worse" living here. It definitely popped in there late in the game. Similar situation at work.. I think that final bit of jolt set everyone in motion.

I can relate lol - Part of me was expecting it to get more and more violent.

help

Log off Fbook chat lol

Scared... the living.. CRAP out of me.. I work from home, here in Edgewater.. I have been in a small quake on the west coast, which just felt like a train going by.. This made that look silly. Knocked my laptop off my holding stand thing. I know it sounds silly in retrospect - but I went into full on adrenaline survival mode. Within 4-5 seconds, I went upstairs to get my daughter out of her crib.. This house was making noises I never ever heard it make before.

I'll fully admit, I was shaking like a leaf.

I know what you mean...for a while after it hit I still felt like I could feel the shaking continuing and it almost felt like it turned my stomach into knots.

DCPS hasn't decided to close schools or not, they say they are doing an inspection of all 126 buildings tonight. Why does it seem like inspecting 126 buildings in one night is impossible?

Allegedly MoCo did their buildings supposedly lol - they released a statement saying all buildings were fine. But that statement came at like 3 or 4.