Kmlwx

HRRR is showing some pretty intense updraft helicity

ETA: less impressive on latest run

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good lawd give me the 6z GFS 78-108hr progression in 2-3 months time please. Textbook.

No kidding. I just looked and that look at H5 is drool worthy. Hopefully not laying down the tracks too early

It's disgusting...my parents house (where I am tonight) is so humid we've got a dehumidifier and the house A/C running - along with a window unit in one of the rooms. 

28 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You're right.  Traveling 70 west, from the Patapsco river bridge and points west, it's really thick.

Looks like they just kept the short term forecast product and no dense fog advisory. Funny thing is it doesn't even include eastern MoCo and it's plenty foggy here still - was socked in when I made that post. I guess maybe they decided it was going to be relatively short in duration. 

I can't believe I missed my exit! Sure was creepy out there. 

NWS needs a dense fog advisory. I drove from Columbia, MD down to Colesville, MD in the past 25 minutes and visibility is in the toilet. Much better near water sources but elsewhere the fog is so thick I missed the exit to the ICC because I couldn't see it. 

Something is trying to spin a bit up near Thurmont. 

Newest HRRR run that is ongoing right now looks less impressive - it also focuses most of the storm activity along and to the east of the metro area. 

HRRR is pretty insistent on Maryland getting some nice storms this PM. 

HRRR and 3km NAM both have good storms especially in Maryland later today. Would think that as usual, the timing will be a bit earlier than the models suggest. 

Line forming west of Dumfries

Watching that cell just NW of Stafford. 

Posted in the tropical thread - but LOL have to love the GFS in fantasy range. 

Just now, Dunkman said:

The NOAA plane was flying out of Bermuda which was ~400 miles away. The AF plane is flying out of Savannah which is ~1100 miles away.

Yes - and this - I forgot about that. Thanks Dunkman. 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay two passes. The past missions included many more passes.

Maybe they had a mechanical issue. A lot of the previous missions were also flying with the P-3 aircraft which may have a different range.

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like recon is heading home after only one pass?

 

That shows two fixes/passes......

And they have limited range...

They didn't fly out of the islands - they flew out of Georgia. Decent ways back. 

56 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

I bought snow pants because of this thread.

Well now you've done it - that guarantees 4 snowless winters. 

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

A nice, albeit very brief, respite from the misery.  Right back to the muggy mid 80s next week.

80s are fine. Let's just avoid the low to mid 90s. Hopefully the humidity leaves soon. 

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am also free the first two Saturdays in November but it can start to be chilly up here by then. That's not necessarily a problem. We could move inside if necessary but I was trying to find a best possible date. 

I'm also interested. And who cares about cold - let's have it outside in the middle of one of the 15 blizzards we are going to get this winter. 

4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Actually looking at the 12Z Euro it shows that Florence has no less than 3 siblings behind it. The first 2 looks to have gotten past 20N before hitting 50w. Using what I think is the Don Sutherland rule those 2 should not be a threat to the US Mainland. the 3rd one looks to be too early to tell.

I mean...they're all too early to tell...even Florence. 

Had some very, very loud thunder and extremely heavy rain for a bit - but sun is back out now. 

Remember this day so vividly. Hard to believe it's been this long...

Quite the storm here in Potomac. Close lighting strike scared our receptionist while I was standing with her at the windows in the waiting area. 

HP supercells get me going. 

TMI

16 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Why do they have the SLGT risk so far west? Soundings support severe weather all the way over here as well. CAPE also looks highest D.C and east as well. Not buying it right now.

Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. 

Did I miss a memo/change - since when did SPC start issuing 2 Day 3 outlooks each day?