Kmlwx

Is that a hint of a notch south of Point of Rocks?

Echo tops have really started to come up. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This line looks like crap

If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out. 

First warning out. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0750.html

60 percent chance of a watch for portions of the area and to the north. 

Tracking something like June 4, 2008 again would be a treat. I remember watching the event start to unfold at lunch and in my 6th period class where I had access to a computer. Sprinted home through the woods (I lived close) after school to fire up all of my radar programs (I had StormLab at the time). 

I was a total weenie back in 2008...

CIPS still is suggestive of more chances at severe coming. Pretty good analog signal for some severe at the 168hr mark on the extended analogs. There should be chances over the next week or two...whether they result in anything of significance remains to be seen. 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

pretty typical. like high risk said, i think we still see some storms, but whether they are as severe as some of us would like to be, remains to be seen. 

Yeah - everything is far too conditional today for a shot at a moderate I think. In fact, if there was a gun to my head I'd actually learn more towards shrinkage of the ENH or elimination of it. 

Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment. 

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No you're just learning to be cautious.

Hoping to end up somewhere between Yoda and you. Maybe I'm already there. 

SPC seems to hint at a chance of an outlook upgrade later pending trends. 

Just a little humor - the CIPS analogs from the 0z run for the 24hr mark have 5/31/2008 as an analog. I mention this because a few days later that year on June 4th we had one of our more impressive severe weather outbreaks in the last 15 years. That was a lot of fun IMBY. 

SET THE TABLE

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not happening here today.

I think I might slowly be turning into you...should I be worried? 

Dews need to come up in a hurry. We are still in the low to mid 50s for dews at best. That'll help a lot with instability. Hopefully we can advect some juicy dews in. 

Yeah the most recent HRRR runs pretty much suck - just isolated activity. 

Sun is out here with thin clouds around. On my way to work (currently between Silver Spring and Rockville) 

I am still not in yet. 

Parameters continue to look pretty impressive. But sim radar is pretty weak sauce for us on most models (even the better ones @high risk ) mentioned. Still think it could go either way. I want to get excited but that's always a losing strategy around here. On the plus side - it does look pretty certain that we'll see a good bit of sun tomorrow...that's one of the factors we sometimes don't have (often). 

Just now, mappy said:

Sure can! Ill be home  

Unfortunately my presence would guarantee no storms within 25 miles.

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

includes Baltimore and Frederick now

Can I come watch a wedge pass by from Mappyville?

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

1730 SPC OTLK moves the SLGT and ENH risk south some compared to earlier Day 2

Let's recklessly go chasing up US15. 

12z NAM nest has almost nothing unless you're in extreme NE Maryland. Meh. 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

you know those are all things we need every time and tend to fail on lol 

 if i was in Scranton, id feel pretty good about seeing some severe tomorrow. 

ahh, i hadn't looked at either one of those. i've always considered them weenie models  (i honestly don't know enough about them)

I'd be happy with thunder, I know our chances down here aren't nearly as good as those in PA/NY. But still has a chance to be a fun event to watch unfold, even if we don't get the goods. 

They certainly seemed to be before. The last year or so though they seem far more conservative a lot of times. 

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

As usual for us down here, its all dependent on how north the warm sector gets before the cold front comes through. Need enough daytime heating and lift, otherwise we see nothing. 

PA has a better shot because they get the better ingredients near the warm front and the lift. 

Maybe we can pull a miracle and keep the warm front JUST to our north. As Ian says - playing with the warm front is not usually a bad thing.