Kmlwx

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

pretty typical. like high risk said, i think we still see some storms, but whether they are as severe as some of us would like to be, remains to be seen. 

Yeah - everything is far too conditional today for a shot at a moderate I think. In fact, if there was a gun to my head I'd actually learn more towards shrinkage of the ENH or elimination of it. 

Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment. 

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No you're just learning to be cautious.

Hoping to end up somewhere between Yoda and you. Maybe I'm already there. 

SPC seems to hint at a chance of an outlook upgrade later pending trends. 

Just a little humor - the CIPS analogs from the 0z run for the 24hr mark have 5/31/2008 as an analog. I mention this because a few days later that year on June 4th we had one of our more impressive severe weather outbreaks in the last 15 years. That was a lot of fun IMBY. 

SET THE TABLE

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not happening here today.

I think I might slowly be turning into you...should I be worried? 

Dews need to come up in a hurry. We are still in the low to mid 50s for dews at best. That'll help a lot with instability. Hopefully we can advect some juicy dews in. 

Yeah the most recent HRRR runs pretty much suck - just isolated activity. 

Sun is out here with thin clouds around. On my way to work (currently between Silver Spring and Rockville) 

I am still not in yet. 

Parameters continue to look pretty impressive. But sim radar is pretty weak sauce for us on most models (even the better ones @high risk ) mentioned. Still think it could go either way. I want to get excited but that's always a losing strategy around here. On the plus side - it does look pretty certain that we'll see a good bit of sun tomorrow...that's one of the factors we sometimes don't have (often). 

Just now, mappy said:

Sure can! Ill be home  

Unfortunately my presence would guarantee no storms within 25 miles.

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

includes Baltimore and Frederick now

Can I come watch a wedge pass by from Mappyville?

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

1730 SPC OTLK moves the SLGT and ENH risk south some compared to earlier Day 2

Let's recklessly go chasing up US15. 

12z NAM nest has almost nothing unless you're in extreme NE Maryland. Meh. 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

you know those are all things we need every time and tend to fail on lol 

 if i was in Scranton, id feel pretty good about seeing some severe tomorrow. 

ahh, i hadn't looked at either one of those. i've always considered them weenie models  (i honestly don't know enough about them)

I'd be happy with thunder, I know our chances down here aren't nearly as good as those in PA/NY. But still has a chance to be a fun event to watch unfold, even if we don't get the goods. 

They certainly seemed to be before. The last year or so though they seem far more conservative a lot of times. 

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

As usual for us down here, its all dependent on how north the warm sector gets before the cold front comes through. Need enough daytime heating and lift, otherwise we see nothing. 

PA has a better shot because they get the better ingredients near the warm front and the lift. 

Maybe we can pull a miracle and keep the warm front JUST to our north. As Ian says - playing with the warm front is not usually a bad thing. 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah but its no better in PA. advertises a couple larger cells in NNE PA towards NJ, but that's it.  its a very broken line of storms ahead of the front, with nothing popping up out ahead. very weird to see when there is an enhanced risk and strong wording from State college. 

Almost seems like the trigger just isn't strong enough to get things going until you're in the area you mentioned well north. Pretty much all of our severe days have some aspect of "bust" written all over them. I"m still half in and half out - there hasn't really been any run so far that's brought widespread severe into our area. So I think coverage will be an obvious issue for us. 

06z NAM seems to have a bit of an issue with timing. Would love if it sped up just a bit. 

36 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX seems uncertain in their morning AFD https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

State College though, their AFD is pretty good weenie material https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

06z NAM is pretty boring, so we shall see today brings. But I think the further north you are, the better your chances of seeing something worth a damn. All the best stuff will be in PA

Yeah 06z NAM nest has the parameters still but does the DC/Baltimore split it seems. Lame.

Just now, yoda said:

I'm liking Thursday based off the NAM/NAM NEST/SREFs...  I see the slight risk moving south some on the new Day 2 and an ENH in PA.

Comical...I picked a sounding in our area from the NAM nest at 22z on Thursday and it has a SARS match from DDC (95052300.DDC) with a 6in hail result. Still a TON of hail results showing up from SARS...interestingly enough - there have been some IAD ones showing up in the matches. 

FWIW (not much at this range) the sim reflectivity on the 3km NAM doesn't look all that impressive. I'm half in and half out. 

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks pretty meh to me, but weather in general is less and less interesting to me with each passing season.  We haven't had a good storm since the derecho.

I was pretty meh on it except for just keeping an eye on it up until today. Enough consistently good SARS returns and such to at least keep my eye on it. And having @high risk be interested is enough for me to stay partially in. If nothing else - the one big thing you always rightfully say is lacking (lapse rates) might be better this go around. 

I think the biggest "meh" right now is that it looks focused to our north. I'd feel pretty good if I was along a line running from like Pittsburgh to @mappy perhaps. 

Though I think the risk is there for some places to get a really nice cell or two. I think odds are pretty good of one of those days where one or two cells put down really large hail in isolated spots but the area at large doesn't see a widespread event. 

There are a few example of perhaps what could transpire in the Washington Weather Book IIRC - I loved that book in grade school. 

Posted for those who don't want to go digging for it - 

@high risk I suspect if @Eskimo Joe pops in here he might be more enthusiastic than he normally would be. He's generally pretty down on lapse rates in our parts unless we get an EML or something to advect in. Obviously he might find a reason to deb...but he'll be an interesting "weather vane" - let's crack out the WW007 severe weather scale! 

Just now, high risk said:

           I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest.    What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.

 

Posting the SREF at range below - not for the specific map type - but because it outlines the best risk area really well (and as such the area outlined in SLGT right now for D3).