Kmlwx

Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst? 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong.

I mean - if we can get 20 hours of tornado watches from 2011 - maybe we can get something like this

SIm reflectivity probably won't be 100% useful until the models get a good lock on the evolution of convection overnight. 

NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km

The 3km looks better

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

There’s so much going on I can’t keep track lol

okay, two threats for tomorrow. Morning qlcs as mentioned, then possible more discrete cells later in the day

then high winds after that, right?

High winds seem like they will be with the activity and in the morning. 

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

10% hatched tor is now literally just south of DC metro... EZF is included 

You would track that line by the centimeter if you could

The 15z RAP has over 2000J/kg of SBCAPE through a good chunk of the area around surrounding the 17z timeframe. 1km EHI approaching 4.5 in a pocket...SigTor 8-10 in a chunk of the area. Dang...

Just now, high risk said:

         I still have the same thoughts I had last night:   QLCS moves through the area during the early-mid morning hours with some discrete cells in the early afternoon.    The QLCS will have extreme shear - it's a question of instability, but IF we can get some sfc-based cape (and the chances seem to be going up), you have a threat of widespread wind damage and some tornadoes for sure.    The 2nd event will have more instability and reduced shear but still more than enough, and a more "classic" supercell mode would be favored with a legit TOR threat.   There are still uncertainties (how much instability for round 1?     how much coverage of storms for round 2?), but I think that a 10% TOR threat (and an ENH risk extended north into our area) would be justified in the updated day 2. 

   

Always glad to have your insight in our region. I would tend to think any hatching remains south of our area...at least with regards to TORs. I could see a hatched wind area come up to our area - especially if LWX is leaning more on the SVR TOR products to emphasize the wind threat rather than the wind advisory products. 

Updated LWX disco snippet is dead on what I thought earlier

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Really not much to add to the previous discussion. High impact
storm to affect the region Mon with significant risk of severe
thunderstorms including tornadoes. Planning to issue a Wind
Advisory for everywhere not included in a High Wind Watch.
While widespread damaging winds are certainly possible in a lot
of areas, these should be brief in nature and mainly
convectively driven. Believe those will be handled better with
SVRs or TORs as needed. Flooding rain threat seems to be
diminishing and not planning issuing any Flood Watches at this
time.

12z NAM (12km) has less CAPE into Southern PA. But still looks excellent for the DC area.

Going to be interesting to see what the 3km NAM spits out. GFS will bring us back to reality as usual. But interesting to see the models maxing out with time...

Long range 12z HRRR also going kinda bonkers...

If you took that RAP run at face value - it would seem to indicate we have just as much potential as some places in the Carolinas. I don't buy it. But the models continue to spit out some very healthy solutions for our area. 

LOL at the RAP on the 09z run

Not sure how useful the RAP is anymore - but at range it has 80-90kts at the 850mb level at 15z tomorrow.

Have to say - the big gap in the high wind watch products from WFOs to the west of LWX and WFOs east of LWX doesn't look great. Don't see a ton of harm going with a WATCH and ultimately going with an advisory if the higher wind progs don't end up verifying. But the whole purpose of a watch is for this reason. Could easily see gusts to the 58mph criteria. I wonder if their plan is to go with an advisory and then cover any HWW criteria winds with SVRs

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

Out of my subforum - but just an FYI - looks like there was an error. The outlook was amended about 1hr after being issued. Larger extent to risk area in your region.

WRF-NSSL run looks very robust for our area. Link below - several models on this page, in fact. 

https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=wrf_nssl_3km&rd=20200412&rt=0000&product=sbcape&sector=spc_ma&postage_stamp=false

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

So no slight and no HWW? This sure has lamed out... We always find away for things to not be exciting. 

Huh? Entire area is under a slight risk with ENH not far away. Outlook was amended about 1 hour after issuance. 

0z HREF has ensemble mean 850mb winds of 75 knots around the area on Mon.

LWX in their AM discussion was indicating only wind advisories for most of the area. HWW confined to ridge tops. NAM (06z) still has crazy winds at the 850 and 925 levels. NAM nest has surface wind gusts to 65mph almost area wide. 

They amended the D2. Weird

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 3km NAM is so convoluted.  You’ve got the warm front showers overnight, effectively ending by 8am.  Then we get the leftover line of storms from MS/TN late morning.  And after that the parameters peak and we got more storms firing early afternoon.  That is a lot going on.  

Some of our big severe days do seem to have a morning round. But this is a lot. I wonder if it'll get some clarity and focus more on one of the rounds in future runs. 

IF the models still look like this at 12z tomorrow I'm going to really start honking. @Eskimo Joe - you're looking at 0z tomorrow night, right?

We would probably do just fine even with 1000 CAPE. We've had days of 500-750 do fine with high shear. 

Some of these forecast soundings are edging closer to 2000 SBCAPE...