Kmlwx

For sure. I think the issue with severe is that it's way easier to miss out on a major storm cell that is 10 miles wide at best versus a big coastal. But that's just severe - and honestly with severe at least in the summer you're usually only a day or two away from the next isolated storm chance (or more). You generally get more opportunities in severe season vs winter (perhaps not for a region wide outbreak - but just for strong-severe storms in general).

I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at.

The the painful gap between winter and severe season begins. Maybe we can score on some sort of squally type sub-severe line at some point early season. March and April can be really slow if nothing happens. Nice weather at least!

Valid point - though even then - I wouldn't say I even ripped sleet for hours. I was in the crab claw for hours this morning. The sleet has really just been absolutely bursting for the last 20-30 minutes or so (if that). Mostly it's just been light sleet with spikes into the moderate territory. I think I've seen 7 flakes total. ETA: I don't even think I've hit 1 inch of sleet. Looking out the window it's pretty unimpressive if I'm going by scenery and amounts. It's already slowing down here.

The amount of sleet is pretty amazing. It's not very typical to get buckets of sleet like this at once. Not sure about you - but I'm into meteorology for interesting weather. It's why I'm here in severe season and winter a like. I love snow - but I love interesting weather - a massive sleet bomb is meteorologically interesting. But I understand your POV if you were hoping for snow and don't give a s*** about any other type of weather.

There does seem to be substantial drying out of the radar returns south and west of the Potomac River (compared to the huge blob of death over Maryland)

The amount of sleet falling here is insane.

Hefty sleet with maybe a flake or two mixing in.

I don't see any trace of rain anymore at least - seems like a straight sleet fest here now.

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site?

The heavier band that is moving through the "lull" area right now is sleet in Colesville again. Can hear it sandblasting the windows.

Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations?

Getting a sleet base IMO makes the snow (if any comes) easier to accumulate - and if it comes AFTER snow it tends to make it harder to melt. Sleet sticks around longer!

Getting raked with sleet right now with perhaps some ZR mixed in.

So the "claw" was kind of legit? Radar shows it a bit and it's not doing much here at the moment. Nice sleety base on the walkway and parts of the street, though.

Just waking up - but I can hear a lot of pingers against my window here in Colesville, MD. Not sure what the ptype breakdown is here yet and haven't looked at road conditions.

I'm very late - but yes!

Would be nice if LWX would do some supplemental balloon launches tomorrow as well to assess the warm layer. It's a shame BWI/DCA don't have balloon launches as well (being closer to the fall line).

I'm not sure I entirely agree with this - at least for MBY. I haven't ever hit (this year) those illusive 1-2 inch an hour rates (even for a short time). Even if the mix line comes in fast, this seems like it will be less "splotchy" and less spaced out than prior events. More precip in a shorter period of time than past events.

Great map! What are your thoughts for how bad the icing threat will be to the south and east of 95?

It's not relevant. Those ptype radars are notoriously bad and are just estimates (and often poor ones at that). If you want to get an accurate view - use radar and then look at mPING reports to see ground truth. Don't trust consumer weather apps or gimmicky radar apps.

I was hoping you'd give me the "NEVER" answer. Now I feel too inner circle

When will the watch be upgraded to a warning?

I'm mostly taking the Bob Chill approach this year - so I hope this was not targeted at me. Cover my grass so I can't see the blades and I'm happy. Yes - a HECS is fun - but snow is fun. I've turned into more of a severe guy myself.

They are pretty good about getting the 88Ds back up in a timely manner. They got the LWX radar back up a few days ahead of schedule when the bullgear failed.