ORH_wxman

Lol....maybe wait until the pattern breaks down at least.....prob gonna be several more chances after 12/16.

Decent front ender for 12/16 over interior SNE (prob N&W of 495) on GFS. Coast is torching with onshore flow in that setup. But obviously that could change as we get closer. That high to the north is funneling a ton of dry polar air to help prolong the frozen over interior.

Super amped solutions with widespread 12-18" of snow are not coming back. But the way to get sneaky warning snowfall will prob be from a stripe under good fronto....like the GFS had. Pretty cool that you can actually see what the PV lobe was doing on those huge solutions....it was retrograding further west so that the shortwave had room to amplify underneath it rather than staying to the northeast and acting as an inhibitor to amplification.

We need the "Day After Tomorrow" map that dendrite posted a few days ago.

What the hell is going on for 12/16? GGEM and GFS both have the 50/50 low getting pushed south into Maine and the GFS then pushes it into the waters east of NE, lol. Some crazy looks ahead of that system.

Significantly north of 00z though

Nice stripe of warning snows in NE CT into N RI and maybe tickling interior SE MA?

GFS is def coming in a bit more zonked.

ICON and RGEM looks pretty good for widespread light snow over much of SNE for 12/11-12. We'll see what the globals do. The 06z EPS still has some pretty big members in there for 12/12. I don't think they are likely, but can't rule out a little surprise yet.

Take under on temps....even NAM has it stuck in the upper 20s all day Sunday away from immediate coast. That's quite chilly from the northeast.

Yes, though there could certainly be a heavier stripe somewhere. We'll just have to see how vigorous the shortwave is when it is knocking on our door. I wouldn't be forecasting much for our area right now (maybe more bullish in SW CT), but there is kind of a low-grade bust potential on that one.

I think it's just DJF....I recall BOS squandering their shot at futility in March 2007. I don't see the point in leaving March out though....that is a snowier month in some places than December is. I could sort of see an argument for discarding months like Oct/Nov/Apr.

That must just be DJF? BOS lowest for the whole cold season is 9.0"

This is pretty interesting on the EPS

Yeah I will be going more bullish if this is the real track of the vort and shortwave..... Now if it ends up south of this depiction, then I would fade the snowfall, but I'd be surprised if there isn't at least widespread steady light snow if it looks like that aloft. Even if it's just an inch or two.

That’s why true top end blizzards are the best. You get the 50mph winds and insane sensible wx conditions plus a transformed moonscape, except the snow is so deep in those that you don’t have any bare grass areas. It’s more like 8-10” in the low spots and 4-5 feet in the high spots. Storms like Jan 2005 and Feb 2013 were like that. Really windy but such top end snowfall totals that you couldn’t blow the ground bare.

Boxing Day must have been your favorite. 50 mph winds whipping dryslot snow grains.

Not out yet. Prob 20 min.

Funny part was when we whiffed on that event and then got nothing for another week, I was really bummed because I thought it cost us a white Xmas, but then 12/23 happened and all worries were buried under 18” in 6 hours. Tip is correct that this was probably THE generational short term bust in our area (central to east-central MA). I don’t recall one prior to that or since then that was worse. We’ve had plenty of bad ones but nothing of that magnitude. The forecast was literally 1-3” at start time. I think a couple Mets saw the radar to the south and upped it to 3-5” pretty fast (I remember Todd Gross on WHDH that morning saying something like “there could be some surprises with this one” as it looks to be developing a lot faster than models showed.”)

18z euro actually looks more amped than 12z for 12/12. Wish we could see another couple panels past 90h

Let’s back that PV lobe a little more SW and have some of the energy phase in for 12/12….go big or go home.

That block is really flexing more and more each run.

18z gfs really crunching 12/12. Gonna whiff most….SW Ct may do ok still on this run.

Easily the biggest potential model errors are the handling of the blocking up there over the next week. The strengthening of the 12/12 system offshore should theoretically feed back into that some and hold it tough as 12/15-16 approaches....we saw some trends of that today, but my gut says those trends are far from done.

Weird how both model suites had some pretty bad misses even like 7-10 days out.....GEFS was pretty much a disaster in handling the NAO block (EPS generally schooled it)....but GEFS schooled the EPS on the PAC look. The handling of the block isn't done either....I'd expect more trends with it.