ORH_wxman

I like where ens mean is at with plenty of spread NW at this lead time.

For a pattern as chaotic and unpredictable as this one is at 6-7 days lead, I think it's hard to be too upset about where guidance is. Are we getting a huge snowstorm? Probably not, but we have a legit shot at one and that's all you can ask for a week out.

Ukie is pretty amped for next week. Hopefully we split the difference between it and the GFS.

We may have to watch for a few snow showers or light snow Tues/Wed from that retrograding 50/50 ULL.

Big hit interior....toast bath for coast.

Most guidance is like that...GFS was the stingiest.

Yeah this run skunks eastern zones (outside of OES)

It will still get into SNE....but more confluence is more of a problem for eastern areas. Western areas should do fine regardless.

GFS looking quite squeezed by confluence.

Wouldn't shock me if someone got a decent surprise. The instability is very good....almost dry adiabatic lapse rates for a time and TTs in the 50s. Could see an intense band of heavy snow somewhere.

Yes probably.

Gonna have to watch for the IVT after the initial band of snow....that sig is getting a bit stronger. CT looks most favorable....but also need to watch it in central/western MA.

Hard to believe that '05 storm was 17 years ago. Remember it like yesterday. Funny story on that storm is like 2 days prior to it is when both Tip and I joined EasternUsWx.....we had both been on WWBB, but when the mass exodus occurred from there, it was after the '04-'05 winter, and neither of us had been posting after that winter, so we returned to WWBB to find a wasteland, and I think we both mused to eachother on the forum "I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of the 12/9 threat...it looks pretty intense on some guidance (notably the old ETA)". Then we remembered that some people had been posting on Eastern the previous winter....so we checked it out and found the more engaging convo going on.

I can merge them

Is there a reason they are running the NAM on an IBM 486SX CD ROM computer today?

Lol....good timing

Even though it looks great at the sfc there, gotta remember that a lot of these are still bringing in some milder air from the east just off the deck up to around 900mb. We'll want to see that trend continue to wane...that's what I'll be looking for today.

Don't sweat it dude...we get it......we'll just play dice with your balls after your wife mails them in an envelope to Funky Murphy's.

The trends def continue overnight for 12/16. Obviously 06z GFS was a full-on blizzard for a chunk of the forum. Euro was a big hit for NNE/CNE but even interior SNE gets in on some of it…esp N of pike. Ensemble members continue to trend faster and S with redevelopment too.

Low levels are torched too when you have a low ripping into SE NY. Need this to not get yanked back to the west like that.

Still too tucked for a lot of snow but closer.

Def looking snowier this run for 12/16

There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here.

18z icon also juiced up a bit for Sunday night/Monday.

Rgem looked pretty beefy. That would prob be a solid 2-4” for much of SNE. Maybe some higher lollis. Still have a little ways before we figure it out.