ORH_wxman

GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now

Yeah kind of like '92-lite....we never got the big ULL underneath us, but a little part of it getting squeezed underneath gives us the mini-version perhaps.

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

Models will under-do the snow in heavy lift...esp models that are hydrostatic. They kind of put an artificial cap on the dynamics. This is why we often see the model busts in those marginal events with very heavy precip....they can't quite capture the true dynamics going on. They are approximating it and the errors will become bigger the more dynamical a system is. That's why us mets have traditionally always said things like "if the dynamics are big, watch out....there could be surprises"......but it's hard to say when they will be that way versus more middling.

It almost certainly would flip right to the coast on that look....but again, big if. RGEM/GFS liked the idea....NAM didn't. We'll see if we can trend the Euro that direction today.

Yes.

20-burger in ORH county with that look....not forecasting that right now, but these slower "meandering eastward" type solutions have some pretty high positive bust potential in those areas...and maybe positive bust too for eastern MA coastal plain too if that collapse SE during CCB overnight Friday night happens....still a big if on that part. NAM didn't really show that, but GFS/RGEM did.

RGEM was showing it too. Those mid-level tracks are mouth-watering for elevated interior.

One thing I like seeing is heights are falling pretty quickly during this whole event. That is going to want to be trying to counter WAA more and more as the event goes on.

And scorpion bowls

First system in Dec '96 was like that....started as rain for everyone except the highest spots in Berks and maybe like 1200 feet in ORH county and then snow levels just kept lowering all day until even BOS got TSSN late in the game.

RGEM does do a flash to heavy wet snow almost to the coast overnight Friday night though....

This will be an amazing system for those ski areas out there up into S VT.....really build the natural base. Perfect snow for base building.

RGEM still pretty torchy in low levels....but 925 def cooled that run. Just not enough to get to NAM levels of snow in SNE outside of the Berkshires.

Probably....if we get one more tick, then maybe not, but right now I'd expect mostly rain there. Maybe a burst of snow for a time if you can get dynamics going there between about 4am-8am Friday morning.

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

You'd prob get hit hard initially, but it would eventually change over....but not before like 5-8".

I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop.

More for IJD than ORH.....lol

Pants off on winter hill that run

That's a good 925 look right there for anyone with any elevation at all....even some lower spots out west in W CT might do ok on that look

NAM looking a little thumpy again in CT

MLK was a mid-level issue for you....850 0C line was like straddling Union CT....you are plenty cold at 850 this time...all the warmth is trying to get you in the boundary layer below 900mb. Those are the ones I'm frequently skeptical with on the models because the one bias model guidance always has in the low levels is that they are too geostrophic...they don't capture ageo flow very well. A model that is too geostrophic at 900-950 mb is going to bring the warmth too far west inland.

I've noticed those are always super low in marginal events like this. 12/5/20 is a recent example....I think they had low prob of even 3" for ORH and they had nearly 10" of paste but like 10 miles east lower down had 3". Kevin's area is def a bit tough to forecast for because it has elevation but it can be prone to warmth intrusion at 925 from the SE/ESE.

I have no doubt WOR (litchfield county) is a better spot...I'm just looking at some of these runs that show him at -1C at 925 with heavy precip and thinking "that is not rain at 1000 feet". We'll see how the guidance comes in today....small tick NW and he's prob skunked....but small tick colder/SE, and he could get warning snows.