ORH_wxman

RGEM looked almost exactly like 06z....which was like 1C too warm for ORH hills except maybe up by NH border....Berkshires did ok on that run. ICON was also almost a carbon copy of 06z. So NAM is really the only one that moved in significant fashion so far at 12z. The NAM's move is almost certainly related to the ULL being compressed a bit E/W vs the 06z run.

Even the 12z NAM gets 925 to NH border by 84h....but the damage is done by then.

I don't have the ability to see 925 on the EPS....but my guess is it probably is north of ORH by 90h....EPS is still pretty amped up, even if less than 00z. I think we'd want it about 30-50 miles SE of there to feel good in places like ORH to maybe the smaller hills just W of 495 up by Groton/Shirley/Ayer

IF you want to know what to look for on other model runs to get a thump over the interior....look for the ML warm front being quite sharply defined and slowing down as it approaches us...that's when you get that really strong omega burst and it helps with dynamic cooling. We always say "look at that bent-back ML WF"....here's what the NAM looked like...left image is 700 and right image is 850

Yeah you'd prob get 10 to 1 (and maybe even slightly better if it's 31-32 with good growth) in the 1000 foot hills but I'd go 6 tor 7 to 1 in the valley on that type of look.

You have to admit this might be funny just for the Ray melt

East slopes of ORH hills and Berks would clean up on that type of look

That looks good at 925 for interior

NAM looks thumpy

No, it was just an interior event

Lol....maybe....or 2nd Dec '96 storm. The synoptic setup is actually not terribly different from that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us1208.php

See those members that string out from like S of LI toward ACK.....if we can get those to be closer to reality, then I think ti would be game-on for ORH back into Berks and maybe even parts of 495 belt down to Kevin.....though I think those peeps would want an extra half-tick beyond that. But east-facing slopes are the place to watch on this because they will get some extra orographic assist for cooling that 900-975mb layer. I've seen it many times where it looks like it could be 37F catpaws but they slam 32-33 parachutes (think Dec 5, 2020 as one example with an even more putrid airmass than this one)....the track is still key though. In that 12/5/20 event, the track was ideal. We just had an awful airmass. In this one, the airmass is a little better but the track is still hugging a bit too close for comfort.

EPS came SE a bit too…these types of shifts don’t really matter for places like BOS but they do for ORH up into SW NH and perhaps even down to places like Kevin..esp if they continue another tick or two

06z euro came in a bit better for interior elevations. Prob some decent now for N ORH county that run.

Yes. I could easily see your area getting a few inches before a flip. I’m not 100% convinced you don’t get a lot more either. We’ll want to see euro tick SE though pretty soon.

06z GFS was a nice little paste bomb for the interior. I def don’t think the interior is out of the game on this one. We’ll want to see the euro come SE a tick.

La Niña typically has an Aleutian ridge. Good La Ninas have that Aleutian ridge shooting up into the Bering strait and AK. El Niño typically has an Aleutian low like you see there with corresponding height rises in the PNA region and PAC NW. Bad El Niño’s have the Aleutian low engulfing all of the GOA and giving us a raging PAC firehose….so even if you have a western ridge in the Rockies, there’s no cold air around. But that depiction obviously isn’t like that…it’s more of a “good El Niño” pattern where the Aleutian low stays fairly southwest and pumps the heights in NW Canada so we keep the arctic airmasses coming down.

What the fook is that? Lol Hopefully it verifies because we’d prob do really well in northern stream-dominated Nino pattern

Tip mentioned to me he was gonna start a new thread on this soon...so I'll give him through 00z suite tonight to write the novel. If he punts on that, then someone should fire one up.

Yeah here's the animation on day 7 through day 10....this isn't in total clown range. You can see how the big Baffin block just forces the trough to move east and not torch us....while heights behind it have to build....simple conservation of mass going on there. It's a nice look....hopefully it produces snow before Xmas, otherwise lots of melts, lol.

Models dump the trough initially in the west at D6-7....but there is still a potent Baffin block, so it just slides east with time.

That is an insane pattern on all the ensembles....doesn't matter whether its the EPS, GEPS, or GEFS. They all show it. Looks almost El Nino in N PAC.

Not at all. You’re a skier too. At least most of those hugger scenarios will hit the ski resorts hard.

The storm has officially received a Papal Blessing.....that might be the jolt it needed.

Kind of hard to punt the season when the N PAC starts looking like El Nino with steroidal blocking in the Arctic ocean out in the extended range.