ORH_wxman

Yeah I could totally see this system turning into more of a SWFE but the thermals tick colder as we get closer as Tip is musing above. That kind of happened in the Nov 2018 event and obviously happened in some other front enders like 12/16/07. We don’t have an intense arctic airmass out ahead of it but it’s not a total garbage airmass either…we get that PV lobe insert about 24-36 hours prior to the system and that’s not just going to erode that quickly over the interior. Still a ways to go though. Let’s see how todays system phases with the PV lobe first and we’re probably going to get some slightly different solutions as more data comes on the west coast…even the ridging out there matters because it may try to interact with the Hudson Bay block.

Yeah someone will prob get 3” and 10 miles away could get 6-8”. What I like seeing is the mesoscale lift is kind of getting larger in scale…almost merging at times with the synoptic lift which is why we’re seeing larger areas of good QPF on guidance. There will still be winners and losers, but at least the floor is starting to look higher.

Yeah but it mostly depends on how strong this system gets after it’s well east of us…what it does is it phases with the 50/50 low and then retrogrades almost over us which is what sets the stage for a colder 12/16 system. But the snowfall totals tonight won’t really tell us much on how all that interaction with the 50/50 low is going to develop. But I think all else equal, we’d want more rapid development when this is just south of us.

Yeah this has overperformer written all over it. I was pretty struck by the soundings yesterday and the shortwave has always been very vigorous on the models.

Man, someone is prob gonna see a surprise down in CT.

Oh that’s right. How could I forget. The 4th was Kevin on that trip. Ekster doing donuts in the fairway.

I totally forgot about that. We went with Ekster and who was the 4th? Lol

Me, Bob, and Luke gotta do a golf GTG on a warm summer day and then BS until dark sharing some edibles. Ginxy can meet up with us after the golf.

Nice steamer there

Yeah it looks like a band tries to form later in the event…almost as it’s trying to spawn the coastal. Like a little mini fronto band that gets near far southern MA and N RI/N CT and maybe into SE MA if it can maintain.

Was a great time. Glad to meet new faces…Don (wxwatcher007) and JD (WinterWolf). I talked with both for quite a bit. Great to see old faces too. The unexpected Tip appearance was fun, and anytime the accordion comes out from Corey, it’s a good time. Great to see Ginxy, Ray, Scooter, Kevin, Luke, Weatherwiz (Paul…but I still call him Weatherwiz), Bob, Pickles, Jay. I have to say, good representation from the CT crowd in this one.

Ripping tunes with the kocin book

Just got here. Sitting right side of bar with Kocin book in tow.

The block just makes cutters and runners less likely but they can still happen because of nuances in the flow and which piece of vorticity phase and which don’t….there’s a lot of variables. Right now we just know a storm is looking more and more likely and that’s about all we can say. It prob won’t be cutting into BUF or CLEbut huggers or inland runners are still a possibility.

We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me: ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block”

Ukie not quite as tucked

Yeah you don’t want a low tucked into NY bight for most of SNE. But there’s miles to go on this threat. It’s good that we’re seeing a significant event continuing to show up.

I also think some areas in SE MA are going to do ok. Better than under an inch.

I like the box map for MA but I think it’s way too light in southern half of CT. Not that they focus strongly on that area as most of it is outside their CWA…is OKX going that low down there? I get temps are kind of marginal on the coast but just inland it should be plenty cold enough.

I prob haven’t seen you in at least 6 years. The two most recent GTGs I made were 2019 and prob 2017? I just remember you didn’t make them. The 2017 one was the pre-Xmas GTG in Boston so it was mostly locals (but Weatherwiz made it!!). Then we had a Jan 2019 GTG at funkys but you had something going on the day I recall. I was bummed about missing last year for being sick, but look forward to seeing a lot of people today.

Yes but notice on the next frame how many of them slide almost due east or ENE. That’s kind of what Dec ‘92 did. The sfc low initially hugged and tucked into Delaware/extreme S NJ (cape May region) and just ripped easterly flow into everywhere but then it slid ENE to south of BID which kept the interior snowing and helped flip some of the coastal areas over later in the game.

Yeah the GFS suite from 12z through 00z seemed dubious. It wasn’t matching any other guidance. Didn’t mean it was wrong, but it made it more likely and the shift back sort of confirms that prior.

You might get some enhancement there. If you can saturate the 850-700 layer then you might be able to rip for a few hours.

Pike band there (at least until about it 495 when it slides a little south.)

Are you going to order a hamburger with no cheese and cooked to the consistency of a hockey puck? I haven’t seen you in a long time…so was wondering if that is still what you ordered.