ORH_wxman

Yeah I was just looking....def more eastward members and fewer members over interior SNE now. Hopefully that is a sign of a real trend and not just model noise.

Ukie did come east and significantly colder in the 925-850 range....but 00z was pretty zonked up so it would have been surprising if it didnt.

This is my thinking right now. I don't expect massive wholesale changes, but it's really about 1C of cooling that makes a huge difference and it happens pretty often when you have a ML track southeast of us.....now if the MLs trend back NW, then you can throw that out the window, but assuming a track to the southeast over like the cape or something, I expect MLs and down to the BL 925 range to keep ticking a bit cooler. We even saw this in the Dec 5, 2020 storm with an absolutely putrid airmass....it was so putrid that lower elevations couldn't overcome it, but even they got 1-2" of slop when it looked like all rain 2 days before the event. Higher terrain did get warning snows.

Yeah when the ML track does what the GFS did, you're flipping a chunk of that yellow echoes over to parachutes at 33F. I've also been noticing the antecedent airmass at 925mb has been very slowly cooling as we get closer which makes sense because it's a pretty good airmass that gets advected in right before the storm....model guidance often erodes it too quickly...esp over the interior.

It's a bit low for ORH (ORH is around 60% in reality) but those national maps are always a little smoothed around localized elevations. Also, it doesn't help that ORH stopped reporting snow depth data in 1994 and there's no real close by coop to pick up the slack. .

This storm would be torching Quebec City to 55F and rain if it weren't for the block.

A bit over 2" here....just missed that nice band in N RI last night. Otherwise prob wouldve had 4". Still, cant complain.....everything covered pretty nicely.

Yerah they did move east some...I'd like to see another move though before determining whether it was just wobbling/noise or a real trend. It's a potent block up near Hudson Bay so at least there's some synoptic support for a move SE.

I'm honestly not looking at snow maps really right now. Just looking for trends aloft in the midlevels. We saw a move SE. We need a bit more...esp east of ORH lower down, but there's 4-5 days to do it. If you get midlevels tracking more over the Cape, then it's going to be mostly snow over interior.

We’ll see today. ORH to your hood really just needs one more tick and it’s prob a decent event. I think the really high end outcomes for SNE are probably out because we don’t have the block to the north linking up with the western ridge in Canada which helped shove the whole ULL under us…but if we elongate the ULL and force the midlevels more over the cape, then interior SNE can have a solid event, even if it taints a bit.

Euro def looked a bit better for snow lovers in SNE. It still needs another couple ticks but you could see aloft how the H5 trough was trying to elongate W-E….if you can do that, it prevents the storm from cutting overhead and shunts it a bit more east. EPS mean had this rightward shift too. Instead of right over NYC it’s now tracking it over E LI. We will need a little more trending outside of the Berkshires in SNE, though. But still 5 days out.

Def a band of good echoes from ORH to PVD

No idea at this point. Could stay offshore too. Short term guidance doesn’t really have one at all. But it enhances some bands in N CT and into RI later this evening.

You can see that twist in the echoes in E NY…that’s what we’ll want to watch as it moves SE. Might provide some rejuvenation of returns

Really coming down with good snow growth now from this nice batch

Starting to snow pretty good here now. Snow growth improving.

Pretty nice echoes in N CT and adjacent MA

Should fill in there…esp between about 4-6pm and your best period is probably 6-9pm. But the nowcasting trends def look really good for N CT.

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of Virga so far. We’ll see if that increases though as it heads east.

Yeah the squeeze is trying to happen there. We’re probably losing the super high end potential (like Dec ‘92) with the ULL remaining well to the west and further north…but that block is still trying to shunt things and I don’t expect guidance to be handling it properly yet.

At 1000+ feet in N ORH county, you’re prob not sticking a fork in this system at all. Maybe if it continues to trend west for another 3-4 runs. But I’d be kind of surprised if it kept doing that.

Best snow in your hood looks like 5pm-midnight or so. But gotta watch the IVT potential for between 1-4am.

I’ll be jelly, but I’m also very interested in the mesoscale stuff that may happen in CT tonight. The instability on the soundings supports some bands of heavy snow…esp where some localized lift or convergence is going on.

Yes. We saw that coming though. That band started extending further east even yesterday.