ORH_wxman

The track is almost perfect....850 stays below freezing for everyone N of MA/RI border now on the Ukie, but it's still trying to furnace 925 (but it cooled a decent amount there too versus prior runs)

Yeah it hammered most of E MA with big CCB overnight. Remains to be seen if that will materialize, but we follow. Ukie verbatim was pretty warm, but it's always warm in the low levels and it's been cooling as we get closer. The track is more important to me on that model and the track looks lot more like the GFS.

They also got stronger....which is what we want. You want to see this sfc low bomb out big time to collapse things SE as quickly as possible in the CCB stage

GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now

Yeah kind of like '92-lite....we never got the big ULL underneath us, but a little part of it getting squeezed underneath gives us the mini-version perhaps.

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

Models will under-do the snow in heavy lift...esp models that are hydrostatic. They kind of put an artificial cap on the dynamics. This is why we often see the model busts in those marginal events with very heavy precip....they can't quite capture the true dynamics going on. They are approximating it and the errors will become bigger the more dynamical a system is. That's why us mets have traditionally always said things like "if the dynamics are big, watch out....there could be surprises"......but it's hard to say when they will be that way versus more middling.

It almost certainly would flip right to the coast on that look....but again, big if. RGEM/GFS liked the idea....NAM didn't. We'll see if we can trend the Euro that direction today.

Yes.

20-burger in ORH county with that look....not forecasting that right now, but these slower "meandering eastward" type solutions have some pretty high positive bust potential in those areas...and maybe positive bust too for eastern MA coastal plain too if that collapse SE during CCB overnight Friday night happens....still a big if on that part. NAM didn't really show that, but GFS/RGEM did.

RGEM was showing it too. Those mid-level tracks are mouth-watering for elevated interior.

One thing I like seeing is heights are falling pretty quickly during this whole event. That is going to want to be trying to counter WAA more and more as the event goes on.

And scorpion bowls

First system in Dec '96 was like that....started as rain for everyone except the highest spots in Berks and maybe like 1200 feet in ORH county and then snow levels just kept lowering all day until even BOS got TSSN late in the game.

RGEM does do a flash to heavy wet snow almost to the coast overnight Friday night though....

This will be an amazing system for those ski areas out there up into S VT.....really build the natural base. Perfect snow for base building.

RGEM still pretty torchy in low levels....but 925 def cooled that run. Just not enough to get to NAM levels of snow in SNE outside of the Berkshires.

Probably....if we get one more tick, then maybe not, but right now I'd expect mostly rain there. Maybe a burst of snow for a time if you can get dynamics going there between about 4am-8am Friday morning.

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

You'd prob get hit hard initially, but it would eventually change over....but not before like 5-8".

I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop.

More for IJD than ORH.....lol

Pants off on winter hill that run

That's a good 925 look right there for anyone with any elevation at all....even some lower spots out west in W CT might do ok on that look

NAM looking a little thumpy again in CT