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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It tries to change you over too but I don't like how far southwest you are on that. But we'll just have to wait and see. Guidance has been slowly trending southeats with the SFC low today, so maybe it can produce a little band later further south.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Nice squall line from CAR to Havana.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Like 3 or 4 of us talked about it further up
  4. ORH_wxman
    Pretty apparent by 96h that it would. This will be Chicago track or roughly somewhere near there.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Tropospheric Polar Vortex
  6. ORH_wxman
    GEM can't buy a coup on a snow event, but it will be the first to sniff out the TPV getting trapped and taking a blizzard away.
  7. ORH_wxman
    LOL brutal.....Cranmore shut down.
  8. ORH_wxman
    One of my old contacts said 7-8" in Winchendon.....they got slammed up there. Might end up with a foot. AWT. What's funny, is the crazy gradient between Cheshire county and N ORH county that I was mocking almost happened....lol. IT was def a bit south of that weird BOX map.....Rt or just south of Rt 2 seems to be the big dividing line.
  9. ORH_wxman
    It looks a bit worse than 00z through 96h up north....I'll be somewhat surprised if this solution ends up cold/snowy.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Over an inch of QPF at ORH now....brutal waste of a nice system otherwise
  11. ORH_wxman
    Euro is kind of going hybrid again on the TPV look like 00z....would've liked to see it definitively go more GFS/NAM route.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks interesting for tonight....I'd feel better up by Ray's hood but maybe down here I can grab an inch or so.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I mean it's Tblizz....never saw a threat that wasn't already cooked at D7. Call it the "Reverse JB" model.
  14. ORH_wxman
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Euro was kind of a middle ground. My guess is it won't play out like that though....prob more binary. But well see. This pattern has been really screwing with guidance. They are having a lot of trouble handling the extreme blocking...it makes it hard to pinpoint which piece of energy get emphasized.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Well one of the sets of models will be wrong....so by deifnition one of them will change a lot. GFS and NAM are similar while GGEM/Ukie are in the other camp. You can see the PV diving SE on the GFS/NAM....here's a comparison between GFS and GEM at 84 hours....you can cleary see the GFS is already sending that piece of PV off to the east and southeast.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is the in the GEM boat right now....no PV moving east. Americans vs Foreign right now on the 12z suite pending the Euro.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, if the main shortwave behind that lead wave can catch up just a bit, then you end up with a really high end type system in NE. That's how Feb 2013 happened....there was this little lead wave around the Carolinas and the main shortwave caught it and phased.
  19. ORH_wxman
    This is the weirdest CF I've ever seen...it goes from like FIT to Barre to Belchertown and then almost due south to Enfield CT and then back SW to around Simsbury. The hi res models did do pretty well with this overall....they were too diffuse with the CF which made it hard to even see, but the overall low levels played out pretty close to what they were forecasting.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Obv things will change, but just talking GFS, it would be nice if that whole thing came in about 200 miles shallower (further N)....I don't like seeing these stemwinder systems from the gulf....they typically don't end up that great here. They will often be snowy in an absolute sense but usually we get dryslot and/or some mixing issues.
  21. ORH_wxman
    PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block. FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Maybe because today's setup isn't a lakes cutter and there's no PV in western Canada today? Other than that, they look exactly the same.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Solutions like the GGEM are a complete synoptic change because it has no PV/PV lobe pinned in SE Canada....it just retrogrades it to western Canada opening the doors for a lakes cutter....so that pv is something to watch.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It's lazy attempt at trolling....esp since the setup on next week's storm doesn't really look anything like today's storm. If it somehow ends up similar, it would be out of sheer coincidence rather than some special forecasting skill by qg_omega.
  25. ORH_wxman
    PV lob is pinned further SE this run so that would reduce the chance of something looking cutterish
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