ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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There was never much of any support for this threat....it was always a long shot. It's not a good idea to make threads on systems that have a decent chance of never forming to begin with.
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You can use 30 years if you want for snowfall but you'd have to understand that it won't be as predictive of the future as a longer term mean. A lot of decadal cycles go about 25-30 years so if you aren't capturing the both the peaks and valleys of those cycles, then you'll get a skewed presentation of what your snowfall climate really is. The 1980s has been eliminated from the 30 year mean....but those of us who remember that decade know what can happen. If you looked at only the mid-1990s and beyond, you would not see how things can go badly for longer periods like they did in the 1980s and early 1990s....because that 30 year climate calculation has artificially removed that period from the record. For temperatures, it makes a bit more sense to eliminate the decades of yore, but it's a lot more perilous for snowfall IMHO.
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Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.
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His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)
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He feels the need to emphasize what's been said like 800 times....it's a longshot. But it's the Tblizz M.O......keep b*tching and whining until one hits you with the jackpot.
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"The previous failure does not predict the future" is a good way to look at things.
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Dec 30ish through Jan 5 is prob just a week-long furnace with nothing interesting. Things might get ok after that though as we see AK pig retrograding to Aleutians.
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We basically had one on 12/11. But yeah, there's been a dearth recently. We had several in the 2018-2019 winter....those were kind of fun. I remember we had back to back clippers in late Feb that winter...first one was like 4" and then another 2-3".....refreshing the landscape.
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He also just posted a DJF composite for phase 7.....there is nothing specific in his composite that tells us it was during negative ENSO and it doesn't single out January.
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Maybe...but the last time we were in a deep -PDO was 2007-2013 and we were making naked snow angels with SWFEs being passed out like halloween candy. I know the impulse is to need a scapegoat that is larger than just nuances.....such as "there is just something larger I cannot see or put my finger on, but I'm convinced it's there and we need to get rid of it"......but when we're grasping at not-fully-empirical phantoms like that, sometimes it means we actually just succumbed to some misfortune just as we were fortunate in some previous periods. We want further explanation when sometime it doesn't require it. Now, being the skeptic that I am on many things....I can't prove there isn't some nefarious "Screw SNE" underlying demon lurking in the Pacific that only a robust El Nino can flush away.....but I'd want to see how it works before being convinced it's there. Missing a firehose snowstorm by 1-2C on 12/16.....getting some weird exotic phase on 1/17 last winter to cost us a legit KU event, etc, etc. We can go on and on, but a lot of our misses don't seem to be the result of large scale underlying mechanics.
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Given the previous 2 El Ninos sucked donkey balls....I'm not convinced it's the answer. Sometimes you just whiff on a decent pattern. Surprised we only got the minor 12/11 event out of this, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We've gotten blasted on worse looks
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Man that’s crazy on the front range
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Blizzard is not a good word to use to describe a storm threat unless there is ample evidence that blizzard conditions are likely. Not every coastal nor Easter is a blizzard.
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Well go with ensemble #4
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End of EPS didn't look terrible, but it will prob take some time to get true cold into the source region again. That said, we can snow with good synoptics even in a stale airmass in early January....and a ridge centered over Utah/Idaho/Alberta always carries some potential.
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Yeah this is the view I'm taking on this. Unlikely to occur, but there's enough potential that keep half an eye on it and see if the ridge improves a bit or the spacing between the main shortwave and the PV.
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You can see the ridge getting the top sliced off of it out west.....if we had that more amped, then we'd prob see a decent coastal system out of that trough....with the potential to phase in some of that PV energy.
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Euro is still semi-interesting. Enough to not pull the life-support plug yet. But it's still a long shot.
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Euro looks like a snoozer over the interior. Cape and south coast though could get it really good. There's like this micro-low that runs near the Cape that we'll have to watch.
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Never sniffed 60 in Jan 2015....some spots may have touched low 50s in the two cutters (1/3 and 1/18) but otherwise it was pretty cold all month. That was part of the frustration in the first 3 weeks of that month....it was quite cold except the two main storm systems were both awful cutters, so we got little snow (just a bit on the front end in the 1.3 system)
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14 years ago today.....crazy coastal front where Ray played naked twister with it and jackpotted. It was a late blooming system right on the heels of the 12/19-20/08 event.
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I think it was a waterspout that made landfall
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GFS really isn't close to anything this run. There's just too much wave spacing issues between the PV and the shortwave
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That won't get it done for big winds....esp away from the exposed areas near the coast. Seems like best shot may be post-FROPA on a quick pulse where the sounding becomes a little more unstable.
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This one is def a long shot at the moment. There isn't a whole lot to analyze on this...it's kind of just hoping the PV lobe allows the shortwave behind it to amplify, and a better western ridge may help with that. So it's basically a game of "if it improves over the next couple runs, we have a shot, otherwise likely fish food"
