ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,907 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Tropical forcing is migrating east in early January, so we'll have to see if guidance continues to show that. If it does, I'd expect some improvements on the ensembles post-New Years.
-
GFS looked worse but Euro was pretty close to something last night. We We'll see what happens today.
-
Nobody east of ORH got screwed but it was more “did you get 25” or 35”?” You’re current area was in that band that produced 30”+ totals.
-
We did have a string of solid Decembers in the 2000s. Seems like there were only two true duds that decade (2001 and 2006)….all other Decembers had either big snow totals or at least one notable decent storm. We def paid back the piper recently for that good decade of Decembers. Seems like the 2010s have been bigger Februarys and Marches which were lacking a bit in the 2000s (esp post-2005)….2012-2013 kind of started the era of big Feb/Mar totals that were lacking for a while.
-
Even ORH rarely goes wire to wire. Maybe 1970-71 they did…’95-96 came close….we survived the mega-melt with like an 8 inch glacier but the forgotten late Feb ‘96 torch did us in eventually. I think ‘60-61 pulled it off too. 2000-2001 is another one…though consistent pack didn’t start until a little later around 12/20-12/21. Im not sure where he lives has ever done on the record book. I’d have to check the numbers. Maybe back when “snow up to thy knickers” was the phrase used they did it but that is long before official records began.
-
RGEM and NAM have it too now. I don't expect this to be a snow producer for most of SNE....but it could be for NNE and the increased CAD puts the higher winds at risk for not materializing....esp over the interior and further north you go. South coast and southeast areas prob still get them. The question is how far into the interior can high winds get?
-
This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer.
-
Yeah S RI coast to like EWB area kind of got shafted in both the 2/2 and 2/7-9 systems. Ironically, Ray should've been up at his current place back then....he would've gotten into the Ginxy-ORH-495 band in the Jan blizzard and gotten near-jackpot totals in the 2/2 event.
-
Another run....another tick east and stronger CAD. If this keeps up another 2 or 3 runs, they'll have a net gain up in NNE.
-
Only consolation on that one was we saw it coming from a long ways out....we kept telling everyone to ignore the QPF maps and cut off the northern 30-50 miles because of those brutally dry northerly winds in the mid-levels. There were GFS runs that were giving me like 0.5-0.75 and I was expecting almost nothing.
-
The Jan 26, 2015 phasing mechanics was amazing to watch on that storm....basically backed the thing in from Bermuda (ok, that's hyperbole, but still...I think it was SE and E of the benchmark and then backed up to a position E of the Cape).
-
He was referencing your melt from Jan 2015
-
He didn't say the pattern sucked....he said the wx had sucked up to that point and the model guidance was temporarily taking away the 1/26 storm due to the 1/24 system getting instead of being wide right....so Scooter had a nice melt telling James the 1/26 storm ain't happening. But the pattern always looked pretty good.
-
This is what guidance last week generally looked like prior to the end-of-week storm....you can see the PV lobe trapped in SE Canada just to our north. That's a cold look here. That obviously didn't materialize.
-
Here's 12 hours later....you can see a few members look good. But obviously still needs improvement
-
Some mild interest from the EPS
-
The narrative I think is set in stone unfortunately....there will be PTSD from this 3 year La Nina. The '07-'08s, '08-'09s, '10-'11s and '17-'18s of the world will be quickly forgotten next time a La Nina is coming.
-
Yeah that is working against the threat because it's de-amplifying the western ridge as the system approaches the east coast....you typically want the opposite where the western ridge is building. Now if it can trend to holding the line for another 12 hours, then I think we'd be in business.
-
Right....previous runs were just having the storm bully itself into the block and push it out eastward instead of positive feedback and pushing it west. The latter scenario makes more sense meteorologically....esp considering the heights are already quite high up there. That could also change some of the looks we see post-12/27 as a block around Hudson Bay will try and promote split flow.
-
Model guidance seems like it was way too fast breaking that block down during and just after the 12/23 event. Having it hang around gives another shot.
-
There's some potential for phasing too with that southern stream vortmax....so there's reason to watch this for a cycle or three provided the main northern stream shortwave keeps showing up strong enough like we've seen trend today on 12z.
-
This is nothing like 2020 in terms of pack-destroying ability. It maybe had potential to be when there was much less high pressure showing up the northeast and the storm was more negatively tilted and slower.....but all of that has changed to a degree in the past 48-60 hours. Now it's pretty run-of-the-mill for warm sectoring....lots of sheltered places in NNE prob won't spend more than a few hours above 40-45F. The heavy rain will suck for ski slopes, but at least they won't lose a ton of base like in 2020.
-
Yeah it's more like "maybe worth keeping half an eye on...." It's not a honking threat at this point. It needs continued improvement.
-
Yes, this week failed in part due to the Pacific being slightly more hostile than modeled, but we prob wouldve gotten away with it if that PV lobe had managed to get trapped in Quebec...but it barely misses and rotates back N and NW. Them's the breaks but they happen and are very difficult to foresee beyond several days.
-
Both GGEM and GFS kind of interesting.
