ORH_wxman

Even ORH rarely goes wire to wire. Maybe 1970-71 they did…’95-96 came close….we survived the mega-melt with like an 8 inch glacier but the forgotten late Feb ‘96 torch did us in eventually. I think ‘60-61 pulled it off too. 2000-2001 is another one…though consistent pack didn’t start until a little later around 12/20-12/21. Im not sure where he lives has ever done on the record book. I’d have to check the numbers. Maybe back when “snow up to thy knickers” was the phrase used they did it but that is long before official records began.

RGEM and NAM have it too now. I don't expect this to be a snow producer for most of SNE....but it could be for NNE and the increased CAD puts the higher winds at risk for not materializing....esp over the interior and further north you go. South coast and southeast areas prob still get them. The question is how far into the interior can high winds get?

This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer.

Yeah S RI coast to like EWB area kind of got shafted in both the 2/2 and 2/7-9 systems. Ironically, Ray should've been up at his current place back then....he would've gotten into the Ginxy-ORH-495 band in the Jan blizzard and gotten near-jackpot totals in the 2/2 event.

Another run....another tick east and stronger CAD. If this keeps up another 2 or 3 runs, they'll have a net gain up in NNE.

Only consolation on that one was we saw it coming from a long ways out....we kept telling everyone to ignore the QPF maps and cut off the northern 30-50 miles because of those brutally dry northerly winds in the mid-levels. There were GFS runs that were giving me like 0.5-0.75 and I was expecting almost nothing.

The Jan 26, 2015 phasing mechanics was amazing to watch on that storm....basically backed the thing in from Bermuda (ok, that's hyperbole, but still...I think it was SE and E of the benchmark and then backed up to a position E of the Cape).

He was referencing your melt from Jan 2015

He didn't say the pattern sucked....he said the wx had sucked up to that point and the model guidance was temporarily taking away the 1/26 storm due to the 1/24 system getting instead of being wide right....so Scooter had a nice melt telling James the 1/26 storm ain't happening. But the pattern always looked pretty good.

This is what guidance last week generally looked like prior to the end-of-week storm....you can see the PV lobe trapped in SE Canada just to our north. That's a cold look here. That obviously didn't materialize.

Here's 12 hours later....you can see a few members look good. But obviously still needs improvement

Some mild interest from the EPS

The narrative I think is set in stone unfortunately....there will be PTSD from this 3 year La Nina. The '07-'08s, '08-'09s, '10-'11s and '17-'18s of the world will be quickly forgotten next time a La Nina is coming.

Yeah that is working against the threat because it's de-amplifying the western ridge as the system approaches the east coast....you typically want the opposite where the western ridge is building. Now if it can trend to holding the line for another 12 hours, then I think we'd be in business.

Right....previous runs were just having the storm bully itself into the block and push it out eastward instead of positive feedback and pushing it west. The latter scenario makes more sense meteorologically....esp considering the heights are already quite high up there. That could also change some of the looks we see post-12/27 as a block around Hudson Bay will try and promote split flow.

Model guidance seems like it was way too fast breaking that block down during and just after the 12/23 event. Having it hang around gives another shot.

There's some potential for phasing too with that southern stream vortmax....so there's reason to watch this for a cycle or three provided the main northern stream shortwave keeps showing up strong enough like we've seen trend today on 12z.

This is nothing like 2020 in terms of pack-destroying ability. It maybe had potential to be when there was much less high pressure showing up the northeast and the storm was more negatively tilted and slower.....but all of that has changed to a degree in the past 48-60 hours. Now it's pretty run-of-the-mill for warm sectoring....lots of sheltered places in NNE prob won't spend more than a few hours above 40-45F. The heavy rain will suck for ski slopes, but at least they won't lose a ton of base like in 2020.

Yeah it's more like "maybe worth keeping half an eye on...." It's not a honking threat at this point. It needs continued improvement.

Yes, this week failed in part due to the Pacific being slightly more hostile than modeled, but we prob wouldve gotten away with it if that PV lobe had managed to get trapped in Quebec...but it barely misses and rotates back N and NW. Them's the breaks but they happen and are very difficult to foresee beyond several days.

Both GGEM and GFS kind of interesting.

Euro prob handled the block the best in the medium range...but it still had its struggles. GFS seemed better at handling the PAC. The block was formidable.....it caused two potential cutters to slide underneath us (12/11 first and then 12/16 later).....12/16 could've been a monster but we were unable to get the whole ULL under us like that Euro run had (and a few other models) on the 12z run the day of the GTG.....so instead we only got a partial lobe extending under us and it allowed too much easterly taint.

It doesn't....the Dec 25, 2020 comps are not going to pan out. I don't see a prolonged mega-warm sector residence time with the CAD showing up. It will rain and be mild for a time, but it seems like less than 12 hours in the true warm sector....prob closer to 7-8 hours in NNE. Seems like the warm sector hits late morning/midday for NNE and by early evening, Powderfreak is already posting pics of parachutes falling in Stowe as the front passes through.

Maybe he was buying the GGEM 12/27 storm.

You mean 1998? I think '99 was garbage. '95 was def my best December from a sensible wx standpoint if you like consistent cold and lots of snow events leading into Xmas. That month did leave a little on the table though with the messy phase of the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm....that one was supposed to be a blockbuster but it turned into a mundane warning event. Nothing wrong with that obviously, but there was a little feeling of letdown there. But we had so many snow events it was hard to complain....you had 12/9 over the interior, and then the massively overperofming clipper warning event on 12/14...then the IVT on Dec 16-17 that dropped 2-4" and then of course the bigger storm on Dec 19-20....but then the ULL just sat and spinned up in Maine and we had random snow showers between Dec 21-26 each day. Always seemed to be mood flakes falling with a deep pack. We must've had 18-20" OTG (biggest difference between interior and coast that month was the 12/9 event where coast had mostly rain after snow to start)