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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    3k tracks over the Cape....it also brings a but more of a CCB early tomorrow. Not as good as Euro/GFS but might be an inch or two in spots.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro def had a nice CCB band curling down for late tonight/early tomorrow. But yeah, not really buying it yet because I'd like to see other guidance...esp mesoscales. GFS had it too at 06z.
  3. ORH_wxman
    You might get destroyed in the next few hours.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah flipped there about 30-40 min ago i think. Down to 32 quickly.
  5. ORH_wxman
    You will prob start parachuting soon if that front moves even another mile or two.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Lift was also kind of meh I think. I noticed how cellular and fragmented radar looked down there even predawn. But who knows if it would have mattered. There def seems to be a distinct boundary in N ORH county.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Front looks like its just south of rt 2 in ORH county. I’m surprised there’s like a 5-6F difference over a couple miles. I didn’t really see that on guidance. We’ll see if it sinks a bit more over the next couple hours.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Rap has been hitting the snow hard for you. It has like 4 or 5”
  9. ORH_wxman
    The radar is going to look snowy for a long time because aloft supports snow until around midday there. It’ll lose the snow texture in CT a bit earlier but the problem in this event for a good chunk of it is low level temps and not aloft…much of the precip is done by the time 850-875 warm above freezing. The radar is shooting that beam a few thousand feet aloft by the time it reaches central areas.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’d be surprised if they don’t get at least a foot and a 20 burger is a distinct possibility.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Bodies in S VT is another good suspect (no pun intended)
  12. ORH_wxman
    I dunno check out 1983 Xmas in the CONUS. That may have ‘80 beat too (not locally but in many other areas)
  13. ORH_wxman
    There's been some weenie flakes on winter hill today.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Looks like BOX convinced them to cave in southern Cheshire county. I'm still bullish in that area.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd prob go a little higher in Norfolk area....they've been consistently getting 10+ on guidance.
  16. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM actually has a better ending over eastern areas early Saturday than previous runs....but I don't really buy it when the low is already at or beyond our latitude. IT's trying to show a good CCB...though 850 is still almost out of the east north of the pike so maybe....
  17. ORH_wxman
    Which is funny because other guidance is getting more amped while RAP keeps getting colder....19z run actually hits ORH to Tolland pretty hard.
  18. ORH_wxman
    3k continues to be colder than the 12k....actually gives decent snows again for parts of CT late tonight.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Keep us posted....your obs are actually kind of useful for how guidance was handling the low levels.
  20. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM looks normal early on, but its going to be super amped by late Friday....850 low at 18z tomorrow is over NYC while it was S of LI at 12z.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I'm not at all comfortable yet for your 'hood on just going borderline advisory snow. I've been noticing the RAP cooling all day today....Euro continues to be an issue obviously, but we'll keep tracking. RAP has you with this sounding at 15z tomorrow with already 6+ fallen
  22. ORH_wxman
    I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Good Scooter high in place on the Euro at 168-174
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you'll prob get a period of parachutes when the lift is good predawn and then you lose them as lift moves on and/or 925 warms too much to support snow any longer. Whichever happens first.
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