ORH_wxman

Analogs are really to be used as probabilistic tools. I know most people just have their eyes glaze over at that term but it’s unfortunately the reality of long range forecasting. Check Jan 1969 and Feb 1969. The patterns aren’t all THAT different but the snowfall and sensible wx was extremely different….and those were one month apart…nevermind years or decades. Think of it I’m these terms: 1. pattern is really good…so we have a 40% chance of a decent snow event in the next 7-10 days 2. pattern is kind of mediocre/average. We have a 25% chance of a decent snow event in the next 7-10 days 3. pattern sucks donkey balls. We have prob a 10% chance at a decent snow event over the next 7-10 days. There are no guarantees in any of those statements. But you’d much rather have the higher percentage pattern. But if two shortwaves don’t phase properly or there’s a random over-phase and we get a cutter, then it still won’t work out. Doesn’t really change anything empirical about the longwave pattern either.

RGEM looks like its reverting back to parakeets if extrapolated. So we prob aren’t going to see the GGEM come east against like 00z did. OTOH, the Icon looks more interesting. Def more confluence up north this run but it’s still not quite enough.

A 30 hour snowfall will need to have a minimum of 2 measurements even if you are doing it the lazy way. You must measure at least once in a 24 hour period. 30 hour snowfalls aren’t that common anyway unless you live in upslope land.

If we didn’t use analogs, we’d be forecasting like voo-doo methods back in the early 20th century. The reason we know a western ridge is good for us is because historical analogs tell us how many large storms we got from western ridges. Are western ridges supposed to no longer good for snowfall because it was colder by 0.7C in 1975 than it is now? You can easily adjust for that too in a long range forecast….”normally I’d go -2 to -4 temperature departures but maybe I’ll go -1 to -3 instead because of underlying warming.”

Yeah it’s like #19 on a list of 20 things. I think many people want it to be a simplistic explanation like that but wx is way more complicated. We’ve had furnace SSTs before in December and cleaned up. An AK ridge folding over has nothing to do with George’s Bank SST anomalies.

Homebrew cold climo isn’t bad at least in early January. So even if Canada isn’t frigid I’d still take our chances in +PNA if we can get any sort of amplitude on that ridge. Further south you go, obviously it becomes more perilous.

The pattern would prob get pretty good if that low retrogrades to Aleutians like guidance is showing near the end. That’s an El Niño look…so for those wanting to flush La Niña, that’s what you should be rooting for.

It doesn’t make a big difference. It maybe makes a difference on the seasonal total of a couple inches here and there. The reason is because it really only matters a lot in the big double digit storms which don’t happen that frequently. Compaction rate is sort of an exponential function. So some of those big dog totals may have been higher if measured every 6 hours. However, most first order sites were already doing 6 hourly measurements even in the 1960s/1970s.

I think it could trend pretty decent for them in a SWFE sort of manner if they get another tick today. But can’t afford any regressions.

Still warm sectoring them but not as long now. Would like to see more ticks flatter today.

Fwiw, the 06z euro looks like it would go east a bit from 00z. It’s pressing the PV a bit further east and the trough axis a bit east as well. I still think we would need another solid tick in that direction today to make this more interesting.

Weve talked a lot about the younger generation being spoiled utterly rotten with snow. I don’t think anyone gets overly swayed by the argument though because it’s hard to force someone to understand experiences they weren’t a part of in-person. But if we keep up the general crappy flavor of winters that has plagued us the last few seasons for another 5-10 years then maybe they will understand a little more.

GGEM trying to go SWFE too.

We lost the PV giving us a visit. So instead of arctic hounds later this week it’s just seasonable chilly weather prior to the cutter.

Tropical forcing kind of shows this. The pig tries to build in during an unfavorable period just after Xmas but then we go more to an El Niño look in the N PAC with the pig retrograding to Aleutian Low position. If Ray wants to flush La Niña temporarily, this would be the time that it might happen.

Lol. Dude is like JB in reverse. Never saw a pattern that didn’t suck…so he can take credit for every time it doesn’t work out. The longwave pattern has been pretty favorable but you can’t always assume nuances will work out. Hell, we just had a storm with 20-burgers not that far away…a storm that would’ve been a cutter if not for the blocking. But we missed a big storm down here by about 1-2C in the BL. The 12/11 system also would have been a mild rainer if not for the blocking.

Yeah esp after ski country just got an awesome base builder. Getting a screamer would suck. At least powderfreak can host his annul Xmas skimming party.

If there’s one way to salvage the storm it’s prob turning it more into a SWFE where confluence to our northeast comes in stronger than modeled and the relay off the west coast comes in flatter.

Yeah recently. It wasn’t as egregious prior to that. There will prob a set of years soon where we avoid it a bunch of times.

Yeah we saved a white Xmas that year with about an inch of snow overnight 24th into the 25th after the 23rd apps runner wiped out our 5” pack that we had achieved on 12/19. Fun winter that followed.

Ironically the 1980s were pretty good at avoiding grinch storms….but don’t look at the rest of those winters.

Off top of my head…Grinch storms since 1990 (defined as a torching cutter between 12/22-12/25) 1990 1993 1994 (this was actually a benchmark nor Easter but was subtropical so it was all rain even into NNE) 1996 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2013 (this one stayed ice for a lot of NNE) 2014 2015 2020 I may have missed one or two. It’s happened a lot in the past few decades.

At least we’ll save on the awful heat prices.

GFS does try and thump on the front side. But it will get washed away.

Yeah this is gonna be a screamer.