ORH_wxman

06z runs were pretty good for maybe a period ending as snow further east too early Saturday. Still gotta watch that.

Man, I just got finished looking at 06z stuff (which cooled just a smidge) and it’s hard for me to see how that map doesn’t bust up in N ORH county. But we’re gonna find out real soon.

I’d actually like to see that saturated just a bit higher past 500 to maximize latent cooling. I want that whole DGZ covered.

It’s funny, I just said I’m glad I don’t operationally forecast up there these days. I’ve been waiting for the BL to keep cooling but it seemed to reverse slightly and start warming a tad since the 18z runs. Yet, every other aspect of the storm seems to be trending toward a big snowstorm there. Everything in my gut and past forecasting experience and instinct says go gung ho there…but do you go against the raw temp data on some of these runs? That’s the part you always have to wrestle with as a forecaster. You can’t ignore data without a very strong empirical reason. You pick and choose very carefully when it is appropriate to make the human adjustment and always make a note of what the outcome was in your forecast.

You might be in one of the best spots for this storm. I’d expect a foot minimum there.

That is absolutely drool-worthy for interior elevations. It would be hard not going full-throttle if I was still operationally forecasting for those towns up there.

It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost.

Those BL temps are almost not credible given the track. Track might have been slightly better on 18z vs 12z. More consolidated just south of BID and a touch south of 12z. I’ll give it until 12z tomorrow to see if there’s any caving.

I might be wrong but I’m really struggling to find an excuse to forecast 1-3/2-4” for 1000+ feet up by rt 2. I suppose if we believe model guidance that has 925 in the 0C to -1C range but sfc temps of 37? I’m not sure who would believe that though. That just doesn’t happen in elevated areas there. It almost always fails…which is why I always used 925 as my benchmark when forecasting for high terrain. I guess if you took the Euro verbatim it would struggle there but it’s the warm outlier at the moment in the 925 level…and even on the euro, it’s showing rain for a while when 925 is still below 0C. It’s also the NW outlier. So they must be going with that track but they didn’t explicitly say there were. The track matters a lot. You just aren’t going to get rain in N ORH county if 925 is tracking over the Cape…at least not significant rain.

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then.

It’s hard to imagine towns like Gardner/Winchendon/Ashburnham getting less than 6” without a good bump NW on model guidance. Basically all those towns N of rt 2 there.

It won’t happen. I probably forecasted for that specific region longer than anyone else alive…lol. One of them will be really wrong.

Thought that would end up better based on aloft. But either way the threat is clearly there.

GFS looks like a mushroom cloud ready to go off….prob gonna be fun in a few more frames.

Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)

Either GYX is going to be really wrong in southern Cheshire county or BOX is going to be very wrong in N ORH county.

Yeah its fine up there....you're gonna clean up. There was almost this weird dryslot hitting CT and part sof MA briefly early on during that run which changed the progression vs 12z....because it was def shunted more south and colder early on, and then we lost dynamics that run. I mean, the QPF in the CT river valley is like 40% of the 12z run....lol

Prob about 1 in 10....it would happen somewhere from late evening to overnight friday night if it happened.

It was colder early on....but its starting to be warmer in the more recent frames because the dynamics are definitely weaker this run.....but we'll how it looks in another few frames...it may go to town here overnight friday night.

Right....by that token, they weren't worried about that area of 8"+ intruding into Ashburnham on their map? Just weird.... Anyways, 18z NAM coming in colder again

LOL....BOX and GYX better coordinate again overnight tonight. The discontinuity in the maps is really obvious....even for a non-Met/non-weenie.

BOX and GYX clearly do not agree either....that gradient in N ORH county looks ridiuclous....never seen Rindge get 12"+ while those other towns just south get almost skunked.

Lol....how did they get a watch in HFD county out of that map?

They already issued their watches this afternoon....unless maybe they add N ORH late? I'm extremely surprised they didn't have them in the first time around though. I mean, it's not a lock in N ORH county, but I'd have to say its def 50%+ for 6" for a lot of that part of the county.

No....Euro caught on around 132-138 hours out and no other models joined until like 2 or 3 runs later. 12/17/20 was seen over a week out.