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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I am shocked they don’t have a watch for N ORH county. You only need 50% confidence in 6” for one.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I think you and I need another half tick or so to get into something meaningful. I’d be feeling excellent on my old stomping grounds on winter hill….I may make an appearance there on Friday. You’re old stomping grounds are a lock. At least it’s still trackable though.
  3. ORH_wxman
    We sick… We remember…
  4. ORH_wxman
    EPS
  5. ORH_wxman
    2/15/15 had a similar strength H5 low....though the one on the euro today is much larger in size.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS didn't move too much from 06z....maybe a very small tick E.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Just gotta get Dr. No to finally cave....it's teetering, but not quite ready to give up yet.
  8. ORH_wxman
    That Euro look was much better than last run....that blocking is in a great spot.
  9. ORH_wxman
    New Hartford at 1,000 feet should get crushed in this event
  10. ORH_wxman
    One thing I noticed on the Euro is that the vort max we see on most other guidance on the front side of the trough is a lot weaker. I wonder if that is playing a role...generally weaker dynamics (and weaker height falls)? See below....here's the GFS
  11. ORH_wxman
    Even the stubborn ones eventually submit to the power of the interior hills on 925 tracks over the Cape. It's just a matter of time....tick tock. The only way out of embarrassment is to trend it back NW.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Tossed further than Ray's Xmas presents.
  13. ORH_wxman
    No, too warm at 925.....but my guess is in reality there could be. The clown maps are going to be wrong for a chunk of high terrain on the eastern edge of our hills IMHO if you are tracking 925 low over the Cape.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I think it's def too warm at 925 with that track.....but we'll have to wait until Friday to know for sure assuming the track is similar to reality.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Looks like it goes right over the Cape
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yep, def started SE, and then it hooked....it's def the most NW model now of all the major guidance.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euro looking a bit SE through 36h.
  18. ORH_wxman
    GFS still might be too far south but there’s no doubt other guidance has trended hard towards it.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Here's an example on GFS....this is 06z Saturday (late Fri night)....look where the 850 low is here at this point...its still down by Islands so you are getting great easterly inflow
  20. ORH_wxman
    There are rules for "Wrap around" working out....the biggest rule is keeping the ML centers to your south....very hard to do good wrap around when you are ripping 850mb out of the NW or even NNW which tends to dry out the atmosphere. You want it still coming out the NE to give good moisture advection. The runs that give good CCB wrap around are doing that....GFS/Ukie....even RGEM though RGEM was a little more precarious. PRob better up by Ray's hood on RGEM wraparound.
  21. ORH_wxman
    06z to 12z looked the most intense. It does linger into Sat PM though on that run....
  22. ORH_wxman
    The track is almost perfect....850 stays below freezing for everyone N of MA/RI border now on the Ukie, but it's still trying to furnace 925 (but it cooled a decent amount there too versus prior runs)
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it hammered most of E MA with big CCB overnight. Remains to be seen if that will materialize, but we follow. Ukie verbatim was pretty warm, but it's always warm in the low levels and it's been cooling as we get closer. The track is more important to me on that model and the track looks lot more like the GFS.
  24. ORH_wxman
    They also got stronger....which is what we want. You want to see this sfc low bomb out big time to collapse things SE as quickly as possible in the CCB stage
  25. ORH_wxman
    GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now
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