ORH_wxman

We didn’t have much of a SE ridge signal at all once the block formed. Only transient during the initial evolution in the Dec 5-8 range. The height response to the NAO block was pretty classic to the south…all along that latitude band. Typically we’d prob get something decent out of this look but not this time…just the smaller event on 12/11

I’m taking the under on any snow after the flip. Radar doesn’t look that impressive to me to the SW. I think best chance might be for a rogue squall or two later on this evening.

CLE -3F with heavy snow and 44 knot gusts

Yeah look at the location of the western ridge on those two frames. That’s really the biggest difference. We buried a bit of the PV into the NW instead of having a chunk of it get trapped under the block like in the first image which also allowed the western ridge to amplify a bit further east.

To answer your question earlier on temps, my guess is it maybe gets to high single digits in spots tonight? Western CT will be colder than eastern MA at higher latitude. It’s about the worst type of delivery for us to get very cold…so it will modify quite a bit from from negative temps we currently see in western PA. But the airmass itself is so impressive that even on an awful delivery vector, it will still be pretty cold.

You can see it punching into SW NJ right now on the sfc plot

If you sharpen up the trough just a bit more, there could be a decent band of fronto snows…I think there’s too much work to do to get a legit major coastal storm, but there’s still a chance we could get a shovelable event. Low chance…but it’s still possible.

Increased ridging in central Canada is helping a bit on the 12z GFS.

NAM was mildly intriguing. Might end up producing some light snow even if the bigger storm idea is a bust.

Man obs (that’s -2F for those at home) KCLE 231509Z 23028G37KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV014 M19/M23 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 21037/1508 TWR VIS 1 P0000 T11891233

Almost dead calm here now. Sun trying to poke out.

Lol KCLE reporting heavy snow with 37 knot winds and 0F temp.

Pretty meh where I am for wind events. Nothing like Oct 2017 when I was in my first year here and we roared from the south. Seems like CT got it good and then maybe into SE MA. Interior MA was more middling. ORH peak gust so far is 43 knots which is not exceptional for them like those 50+ knot gusts in CT valleys.

Gusty here but nothing that crazy yet on the hill. Congrats to those getting better winds.

We had a little sleet here to start about an hour and a half ago, with maybe a few mangled flakes. Didn’t last long. Rain and 37 now.

If they do it would only be right near that exit. They will do everything to try and keep it open though. They don’t want to shut it down. If they somehow close it, you could prob take the Pembroke exit a few miles east and then come in on genesee rd (rt 33) from the east until it intersects with transit.

If it’s on Transit rd or rt 33 (Genesee rd) those will be plowed pretty good. I’ve spent a lot of time around there.

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

Yeah I don't think anyone else had pack...it was a brutal torch December leading into that and then a rogue cold shot plus a scraper got SE CT/RI/far SE MA with a decent snow event while everyone else was screwed.

1998? GON had like 2-3" on 12/24 (and sub-freezing the next few days) while everyone else in the state was skunked.

I think threads can be created a bit further than that if the signal is very strong...there are certain events where that is possible. But yeah....generally we at least wait until inside 100 hours.

There was never much of any support for this threat....it was always a long shot. It's not a good idea to make threads on systems that have a decent chance of never forming to begin with.

You can use 30 years if you want for snowfall but you'd have to understand that it won't be as predictive of the future as a longer term mean. A lot of decadal cycles go about 25-30 years so if you aren't capturing the both the peaks and valleys of those cycles, then you'll get a skewed presentation of what your snowfall climate really is. The 1980s has been eliminated from the 30 year mean....but those of us who remember that decade know what can happen. If you looked at only the mid-1990s and beyond, you would not see how things can go badly for longer periods like they did in the 1980s and early 1990s....because that 30 year climate calculation has artificially removed that period from the record. For temperatures, it makes a bit more sense to eliminate the decades of yore, but it's a lot more perilous for snowfall IMHO.

Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)