ORH_wxman

You must have been under a rock in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

Really the earliest chance for anything would prob be around 1/6-1/7…so we snooze for now. There’s so much spread on the state of the PAC, I’m not going to get too invested in trying to analyze the guidance. There’s still a generally improving look in the tropics so I’m cautiously optimistic the deeper we get into January but there’s far from any guarantees.

‘12-13 too for coastal areas (interior had some good events prior) But those years weren’t Ninas. Gotta hope for a year like ‘55-56 or ‘00-01 in the second half if we’re gonna do it in a Niña. The one positive we have going is the huge blocking that already showed up. Those types of blocking episodes tend to be a harbinger of future blocking later that same winter. Not always but more often than not. I’m not seeing much blocking though returning yet on guidance. Mostly just the PNA turning positive.

Those h5 maps above are a great illustration of how the ensembles actually did predict the mean pattern fairly well, but the smaller scale features within the mean pattern mostly broke against us and those smaller scale nuances are not easily predictable at 1-2 weeks notice.

And if you get rid of the transition period between 12/5 and 12/8, it looks even more classic

This is the last 3 weeks mean pattern. Hard to believe we didn’t do better. NNE didn’t do too bad…so much for fearing suppression.

His posts aren’t serious and shouldn’t be considered so.

I feel like the GEFS actually change the pattern earlier than the EPS but it just never gets as favorable as the EPS. Like here’s D11…EPS looks worse than GEFS here: But by the time we get to D13-14, the EPS looks a lot better in the PAC but I’d don’t really hate either look:

Energy policy has been embarrassing for a while now. We’ve made voluntary decisions to move away from nuclear (an excellent bridge energy source between fossil fuels and renewables), we’ve hindered the natural gas infrastructure which actually increases the use of oil and coal in the short term (see the nixing of natural gas conversions away from heating oil all across New England because we cannot pipe nat gas in from PA), and we’ve had a lot of NIMBY problems updating the grid itself to be less susceptible to weather (such as putting lines underground). It’s unfortunate that everything becomes so political that it’s hard to navigate our way through all of it with logic, but that’s the reality we live in today.

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility.

“Recorded” means since official measurements were taken. Though we know by proxy that it hasn’t been this warm for a long time….certainly the past 1100-1200 years and possibly not since the early Holocene. I don’t have an issue with the temperature claims. Biggest problem with those articles is the attribution dialogue. They get so many things wrong too often (such as the incorrect relationship they stated between hurricanes and El Niño) that it renders the article mostly worthless.

This is why you got a bunch of shit. If your vacation was next weekend, you’d have legit concern. But you’re not going for almost 4 weeks…NNE might be buried by then. Honestly, if I was you worrying whether my wife would have a good experience, I’d be more worried about bitter cold temps in mid/late January than snow conditions. Nothing ruins a ski experience like bitter cold that you might be slightly underdressed for.

I could see 1/5-6 being more interesting for NNE and perhaps down into interior SNE if we get a bit more compression up north as Tip mentioned. Longwave pattern though becomes more favorable a few days beyond that.

Yes we will want to do anything to disturb the “base climo” of La Niña in the 2nd half of winter.

SSW is prob the best path to salvaging a big winter if it’s going to happen. Typically Feb/Mar climo isn’t so kind in Ninas but as we saw in ‘00-01, ‘17-18 or ‘55-56, big blocking in latter stages of La Niña winters can do very big damage. It would help if we could rock for a couple weeks in January too.

At least there’s some clear light at end of tunnel. Gonna be a torch 10 days though between 12/29 and 1/7ish.

I grew up learning to ski in dogshit….1990-1991, 1991-1992 were my first two winters where I learned to ski and skied a lot. Someone can go look up those winter but the spoiler alert is they sucked giant donkey balls with tons of cutters. I assumed it was normal back then as I didn’t know any better. But you are correct at how good they are at fixing those groomers. Even back then. Yeah, we couldn’t go on the natural snow moguls all the time but the groomers were often great even the day after a cutter. At any rate though, NNE could get buried before the 19th.

Yarmouth a little while ago

I haven’t seen any reports recently but last night I saw parts of MVY had 8-9” already. Someone there prob has double digits of fluff by now. The band has lifted mostly north of them this morning so I’d be surprised if anyone got more than 10-12”.

Yeah starting to slowly get better looks on the ensembles near the end. But we’re gonna have an ugly 7-10 days before that between 12/28-1/6 or so.

That looks nice for the Cape incoming

Yeah someone is getting double digits on MVY. That streamer just nailing them and those are fluffy 20 to 1 flakes Id bet

Northern part of Falmouth up to Bourne and Sandwich getting it pretty good.

Yep. That’s why NNE winds aren’t bad either…they can use the shoreline as a bit of a way to converge bands toward the PYM area. Or even NNW can sometimes sort of converge on the outer Cape using the bay side shoreline as a way to organize them a bit more. But neither are as efficient as LI sound where you have shoreline on both sides…like in LES. Pretty cool seeing it today.