ORH_wxman

Goofus doesn't look terrible either...maybe just a shade warm but close.

Man, that's a full-blown El Nino pattern on the GFS in clown range. Pretty weird to see in a La Nina.

When the hell is the GFS doing for 1/11-12....looks like it's trying to reincarnate a mini-1888 with vertical front slicing the region by longitude.

Decent amount of sleet in your hood in Jan 94 too which also kept the snow totals down just a bit. I had closer to 3 feet that month....plus a good amount of icing on the front end of both cutters.

GFS looking a bit healthier for 1/9....still mostly just scraping, but that is pretty close to being something quite a bit better.

What an awful forecast by the euro from like 24 hours ago.

RGEM actually has a nice burst of snow over the interior of MA and maybe into N CT for Friday...prob like 2-3" in higher terrain and maybe an inch or two lower down. It's all associated with the ULL vortmax swinging through, so it's one of those things that probably won't show up on every model and every cycle....you'll just have to watch it.

Lucked out there....full on wedge here....it will eventually overcome you later today, so enjoy it now.

This one is pretty underrated too...gets overshadowed by the blizzard a few days later, but I had like 14-15" from this one: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0104.php That's a man high.

Gonna have to watch for a bit of tuck action Thursday night over eastern areas....only takes it getting to like 30-31F to get nasty pretty quick if there's some light precip lingering.

No, it's still there. It's not a high probability storm at the moment.

Still a huge difference between EPS and GEFS beyond that too.

Energy “crashing into the west coast” can go both ways. It can keep a system from cutting too and they can also temporarily amp up the ridge downstream of it…it all depends how the trough hitting the west coast is behaving. If it is n the process of digging, then it will help amp the ridge ahead of it, if it’s in the process of weakening, then it will act more like a kicker. A lot of big dogs had energy hitting the west coast…Jan 2016, Feb 2013, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 2001, Dec 1992….those are just the ones I know. But there are likely others too. We don’t know if it will help or hurt yet. It’s one of those nuances that isn’t really known at this type of lead time.

Didn’t get much of any snow in SNE until Xmas to New Years that December. We had about an inch early Xmas morning and then a larger warning event Dec 26-27 and then a solid 6-10 incher Dec 29th. The immediate coast got shafted until basically February.

Yeah Ray and I’ll note that GEFS looked better than EPS on that front. We’ll see if EPS trends more toward GEFS like it often has this season in the pacific but no guarantees. But if EPS is basically going to kill any kelvin waves, then it’s also probably going to get a lot more volatile in its forecasts with large spread given the lack of primary forcing there. Who knows. But I’d rather have the active El Niño look at least if we’re going to have marginal airmasses. It makes it more interesting to track. You don’t have a meat grinder SE ridge.

I’m also not convinced we see that Canadian chinook look all month…there’s some notable forcing moving toward the dateline on some of the charts I was looking at on Ventrice’s site. You’d think that will produce some buckling in the N PAC and raise heights over AK as we move toward mid-month. Im not expecting a Siberian express, but I could see some better looking airmasses start showing up.

@CoastalWx Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month.

Euro not gonna be enough this run for 1/9 (still has an area of confluence shunting this south) but that was a significant improvement from 00z so something to keep an eye on.

Euro looking quite a bit more intriguing through 120h than previous runs for 1/9. Kind of a classic split flow look here

You’ll avoid the latter for now. No true arctic air in site.

Yeah I think 1/9 is mostly an interior deal if it happens. Airmass isn’t super fresh but it’s not total puke either. So we’ll see if this one keeps trending better.

Yeah can’t rule that out. Pretty marginal though both on temps and QPF. But ULL swinging through should always be watched.

Fwiw, Ukie came in better for 1/8-9 as well. Seems like all guidance at 12z saw something they liked for that threat. Previously it was well squashed south but today it’s a lot more amplified.

2-4 feet for 1/12-13….can always adjust higher if we need to when we get closer.

GGEM actually has a hit too on 1/9. But yeah, I wouldn’t invest much yet in that one. It’s def not one of those large teleconnector on signals.