ORH_wxman

To answer his question though....I think the latest was 2007 when it took until Feb 14th for the first event of an inch or more (cumulative first inch happened in January that year).

So you admit you never use ensemble guidance? Just trying to clarify.

My biggest "worry" from a forecasting perspective on bust potential is the IVT/norlun look prolongs the heavier snow over central/eastern areas for 3-4 hours tomorrow evening. That could turn a 2-3" event into a 6er. The lower end bust potential will be if the BL has trouble cooling (esp lower elevations...don't think this will apply for higher terrain)....but if we're ripping 20-30 microbars in the DGZ, I have a hard time believing even the coastal plain doesn't flip to moderate/heavy snow for a time.

I’m hoping my little bit of weenie elevation being out near 495 will do the trick. And yes, I think for ORH county and other elevated areas, it will prob be close to 10 to 1 ratios because it’s going to be good snow growth I think. A little trickier lower down but if you dynamically cool to 32F, then ratios will be closer to 10 to 1 when that happens or maybe even a little higher….but during the 34F SN- periods it will be 5 to 1 slop.

That's a pretty good BOX AFD that covers the specifics. The potential for a heavier burst is where the biggest bust potential lies. IF we get 4 or 5 hours of heavier snow, then it's going to be a positive bust with some 4-6" lollis....but if it stays mostly light, then it will be a general C-2" type deal with maybe a 3"+ lolli or two in the highest terrain.

Ya'll are gonna drive yourself nuts looking at OP runs 200 hours out....Euro has like -20C 850 temps over SNE at 200 hours last night and the entire system gets shoved out to sea. If the storm gets completely cut off from the rest of the polar jet, then yeah, you're gonna have a springtime look to it but I'd probably wait until we're a little closer to start your whine and cheese party all over again

Wouldn’t be surprised if advisories go up for interior if euro mostly agrees with the 12z guidance so far. But the 00z and 06z runs weren’t that impressive so it needs to ramp up a little from those solutions.

Wow 12z GFS is really impressive for tomorrow over interior.

Yeah if you had one of those Pineapple Express Ninos. But not all of them are that far south. We’ve had some that are a little further north too.

It was the next day that pushed you over the edge. You were already furious about the pics of Megan and I walking through the woods with 8” of paste and then the next day we had that little impulse come through and we got hit with a surprise 4” while you were pouring rain. I posted the pics below and then you just went on an all time melt…it was probably better than my melt at the ecmwf.int folks

Well we’re in an El Niño pattern right now

Yeah it’s MLK 2010 redux. But he might be ok in reality. 925 0 line was almost over his head.

That’s actually almost a norlun look on reggie. The developing low extends back an IVT which prolongs the precip and you see the 850 flow go almost calm and you already have the very steep lapse rates.

Lol reggie gone wild. That’s almost low end warning snows for ORH maybe even to my area.

NAM was pretty good in CT

NAM even colder. Nice NE flow at 925…already -1 in your hood by 15z. Maybe a surprise there?

925 collapses SE as that little mesolow develops. RAP showed the same thing.

That’s solid advisory for N CT right up into most of MA and S NH

Little mesolow tries to form tomorrow too with that potent vortmax. If that develops a little quicker and backs the winds more N, that will help out the lower areas near the coast…even 2F can make a big difference.

Yeah the sig is really strong on ensembles. People need to ignore the OP runs for now as hard as that is. It’s 9 days out and has a great chance of not amounting to anything too. But for this lead time, it’s all you can really ask for realistically.

Wonder if someone can pick up 4 or 5 inches in the high terrain tomorrow. Like ORH county to berks. But even down lower could be interesting. Nice soundings.

NNE should def start making up some ground in the next 10 days. Esp those upslope areas…a lot of these little disturbances embedded in the flow will be good for 4-6” moose fart events and anything synoptic in these marginal airmasses will be fine up there. I wouldn’t be too nervous yet if I was Tblizz. If they are still looking bleak a week to 10 days from now, then I’d be worried.

BDL and ORH didn’t move them. They just didn’t report them. They often reported in individual events but not all the time. Esp the smaller ones. We were able to reconstruct ORH data pretty accurately and they now have it on the nws site (after like 15 years! Woohoo!). But BDL was never been pieced back together. I tried with BDL for some years but I wasn’t able to do all of them. I think PVD may have had a few missing years too but not as many as ORH and BDL. I think those two were missing 7 full winters and parts of another.

They don’t get the tag unless they provide proof (or in some cases, we might already know them or another met went to school with them)

It’s good you finally agree that we’re not dealing with a SE ridge the next week or two.