ORH_wxman

A large majority of the recent warming is man-made. Some of the warming earlier in the period (like say, late 1800s through 1940s or so) was largely natural. We came out of a very cold period (aka “The Little Ice Age”) that had established itself in the 1700-1900 time period (even going back to about 1300, but the pronounced cold was more centered in the 1700-1900 time period). I don’t think it does the science or advocacy for reducing fossil fuels much good to hyperbolize and exaggerate claims or focus headlines on tail-end of distribution risks…they are important and should be noted, but we don’t want to start reducing credibility by claiming the RCP 8.5 scenarios as remotely likely. That’s how you undermine the entire issue of CC. But this last paragraph is really out of scope even on the wx side…it’s getting more into a political discussion on the best strategy for public awareness and communicating the science.

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....

I think this is a good graph for people to see....this is Boston temperatures for winter....you can see both CC and mother nature on this graph....you can see we've warmed over the past 100+ years but even using the 5 year running average (black line), you can clearly see how it's not a smooth line up....there's torch periods and cold periods.....the torch periods have gotten warmer and you can see how the cold periods have also gotten warmer....they don't get as cold as they used to. Some of the pre-1937 stuff is going to be not apples to apples since Logan airport only took obs starting in 1937....prior to that it was not right on the water so you had much colder minimums.

They are definitely understaffed and underfunded, but they had him if they had only double checked the trade tickets with DTC to see if they actually were being processed. They never bothered to. It wouldn't have taken much effort at all. But Madoff was a well-respected member of the Wall St community....he ran a successful market-making business and was chairman of NASDAQ for 3 years. It was easy to trust him as long as the documents looked real enough.

1913 is a really heavy lift around here, but it's possible if the end of month pattern change is kind of meh.

Next 10-12 days are definitely a furnace.... We slowly wait and see if the ensembles keep the post-1/20 pattern change around. So far they have and haven't pushed it back yet, but that doesn't mean much until maybe another 3-4 days pass and we're comfortably inside of 10 days.

CC may not directly cause a bad pattern, but it will make a bad pattern warmer than it was decades ago (i.e. "enhance" a warm pattern so to speak)....so you'll get some of those days where it spikes 65F in January and 70F in February when it was almost impossible to do that back in the day. Certainly more frequent now anyway. Anyways, no use in beating the dead horse here. We're not going to turn into a DCA climate in winter....that's not credible. But we're not going to have consistently cold winters like the '60s/70s either. We can still get obscene cold as 2015 taught us (or late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018), but the frequency is less.

We're in a rough stretch, but they happen. CC makes them worse than otherwise, but people need to also not fall into being climate weenies too and start assuming these winters will become normal...that's not really any better than assuming they are not affected by CC at all. They are both extraordinary claims that require evidence. Most people would probably be surprised that the entire winter warming trend for us since 1990 is due to post-2015 winters. No surprise when you'd seen the hemispheric pattern since 2015.

One thing CC will help with is when we get the right pattern again, we'll prob get buried with like a 150-200" winter in your 'hood (maybe not quite as extreme down here). You'll be pimping the 47" auger housing andf everyone will be jealous.

It's actually hilarious....small part of me hopes this winter continues as is just to seehow unhinged everyone gets and starts thinking it won't ever be cold or snowy again.

I love how the pre-Xmas “warming” event didn’t even get the temps back to climo.

Misery loves company. I’m rooting for it though to end up better for NNE. The base depths have to be pretty awful right now. A mild rainer is the last thing needed.

That is a legit very good pattern on the ensembles but we waive caution flags until much closer.

Euro was a ka-ka trend. Not what anyone wanted to see. It still works verbatim for parts of NNE but another tick like that and nobody does well.

Yeah most people have never experienced this type of winter warmth living here. The only semi-comparable period were some of the winters in the 1949-1954 range. We had a string of really warm winters then…not quite as warm as recently but by far warmer than anything prior to the 2000s (save maybe a few winters in the 1930s which were very warm). If we adjust for the underlying CC warming, those winters may have been more anomalous for their time….and then a switch flipped and it was brutal cold for about 2 decades. Someone who experienced the 1930s-1970s would’ve thought we were entering an ice age. I’ve often thought maybe that’s where some of those kooky theories took off from.

The 80s weren’t warm for the most part. They were just snowless. Usually cutters would kill the pack but if you had some leftover then it would freeze into a glacier for a week or two.

We just get our derechos in October instead of summer.

Yeah that’s basically been this winter. We’ve had Philly temps and this is what happens when you get that.

I think we’re prob skunked unless this gets a lot colder in the next cycle or two. I’m expecting it to tick back warmer inside of 84.

Still can’t rule out a bit of SN- for southern areas tomorrow morning. Prob not much but a whitening wouldn’t be totally shocking.

Clown range Reggie not biting. That vort energy is too close to the main shortwave. You’ll just advect out the colder airmass before the main show arrives in that look as the two would eventually phase i think….you need that Wisconsin/Minnesota piece to run out well ahead

That doesn’t exactly scream warm solution extrapolated out. All that smooshed vort energy leading the main shortwave looks like it would hold in high pressure well…but I ain’t biting until we see most guidance trend this way

Clown range NAM but those were pretty big changes by 72-84h. Lot of confluence going on.

Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now.

Yeah I saw that. Almost trying to recreate the good look from several days ago except it’s not using this massive piece of the TPV to do it…trying to key in on a smaller vortmax which is more precarious. It’s doable but that would require things to actually trend well inside of 5 days.