ORH_wxman

GFS trying to bring Wednesday back a little. Not really a storm but a little light snow.

If we stick to La Niña, I think the only type of finish that can salvage the season is following a year like ‘55-56 or ‘00-01.

One of those seasons where if some nuance can trend worse, it does. Hopefully both our luck changes and the improved pattern shown in the 11-15 happen.

Yeah I don’t see how coastal areas (esp further south) salvage that storm. Still maybe a chance NNE and maybe interior SNE could get something but that’s looking bleaker but the cycle.

Looks like the euro locking onto no TPV is going to be correct. Murphy’s Law in full effect for snow lovers at the moment.

The physics behind CC are real. Maybe a lot of the attribution gets sensationalized and worst case scenarios given too much credit but I assure you that CC is real. Someone get wolf a nice deer carcass to snack on….relax and wait for the 00z runs.

One of my most painful memories was 2/24/98. Started off as rain and then quickly flipped to heavy snow and forecasts were for 8-12” over interior hills here. Then all of the sudden it flips to sleet and then rain after about 4” of heavy wet snow. They kept saying it should flip back but it never did. Had like 2-3” of rain on top of that paste with a benchmark track.

I had to run out after dinner for an errand and when I left the top of my hill around 350-400 feet there was light snow cover in the roads….just wet at the bottom 200 feet lower. Trees and bushes had noticeably less sticking to them too. Def an elevation gradient.

Driveway is turning into a sheet of ice all of the sudden underneath the thin layer of snow that had just started sticking to it about an hour before it ended.

Yeah this winter would be dogshit even if we were wearing knickers pulling oxen in the 1700s. Maybe ORH would’ve gotten some snow out of that 12/16 event but I can’t really point to any other events that would’ve worked well just by shaving a degree and a half off the atmospheric profile. Of course, one could claim “we wouldn’t get this upper level look in the 1700s…” which is a semi-fair point but not really valid to the discussion. Total dogshit upper level patterns have happened in all eras…maybe just the frequency of certain ones has changed. Also, you really have to do robust attribution studies on how CC connects to the hemispheric pattern. We are all old enough to remember when CC was blamed for some of the brutally cold winters (esp Midwest/plains) in the late 2000s/early 2010s…and also blamed for the increasingly -AO/-NAO patterns of that time. Somehow, we don’t hear much about that now once the AO/NAO went more positive since 2014. The funny part is the northern plains and Rockies have continued to get brutal winters in the past 5-6 years too even with a more positive AO. But the northeast has probably been the warmest place in the CONUS relative to average the past 7-8 years or so. We were due for some of that though after the relatively colder period from 2007-2015.

Pretty big snow bomb for interior elevations N of pike though with an eventually change to rain.

Yes this is likely correct as well. Data overload and also unrealistic expectations of model accuracy at long lead time. At any rate. 18z GFS looks like a snow to rain event. Still quite a bit different than the euro.

Best snow growth of the day now. Finally sticking to the roads.

Harry Markopolis was a hedge fund guy in Boston and he told the SEC like 5 times it was either a Ponzi scheme or front-trading and they basically ignored him even though he had all the mathematics to back it up based off of Madoff’s returns.

We’re gonna break out the snow blowers for a 3-6” fluffer later this winter.

Hours and hours of shit snow growth but at least it looks a bit like winter again.

Yeah no doubt its warmer. That shouldn't be affecting model performance though....in fact, if anything, our model performance has vastly improved in the past decade. Tracking a storm even 7-8 days would get you laughed off the forum with a weenie tag 10 years ago. Now, we've often tracked some of our biggies that far out (or even longer). It used to rarely be like that....now it's not super uncommon even if still abnormal. I think the model changes are just more amplified in everyone's mind when we haven't gotten shit for snowstorms and we keep missing our brief windows of favorable setups.

It's been pretty shit snow growth most of the day here...I'm about 6-7 miles north of there with a little more elevation and it's like a half inch on grassy surfaces and non-pavement.

I don’t think climate change has anything to do with model guidance shitting the bed on synoptic setups. There’s no secret “climate change parameter” in the models. Climate change doesn’t magically make the laws of physics and thermodynamics change. The model guidance is simply ingesting data and then running out the equations in time. La Niña can often be a b**ch on model guidance and that is probably partially the reason we’re seeing these swings. Some of it just random variance too going against us. When models trend favorable in medium range, we aren’t usually saying “I can’t believe how bad the models are that they all of the sudden trended much better with the confluence!”

About 2” on winter hill as of 15 min ago….now passing 2”

Models f**king up the PAC killed December....they still suck at handling the PAC, but this time, now they are mucking up the Atlantic where our confluence was coming from.

Rates just aren;t that good here. Everything whitening up, but we're prob more in line for a sloppy inch (maybe two) than the 3-4" I was hoping for. But we knew we'd need the rates for it. Radar still blossoming though, but I think it looks a bit better for northeast MA than here.

I mean, nothing would surprise me at this point....it's kind of funny actually like Scoot said when random PV lobes disappear....seems like Murphy's Law applies right now. Hopefully if that happens, you bring lots and lots of booze up north for your trip.

Starting to stick to grass and other non-paved surfaces here. A nice steady light snow...prov vis less than a mile but it's not moderate/heavy.

Every model had it except Euro. Ukie had it too even though it stops at 144.