ORH_wxman

Yeah that’s basically been this winter. We’ve had Philly temps and this is what happens when you get that.

I think we’re prob skunked unless this gets a lot colder in the next cycle or two. I’m expecting it to tick back warmer inside of 84.

Still can’t rule out a bit of SN- for southern areas tomorrow morning. Prob not much but a whitening wouldn’t be totally shocking.

Clown range Reggie not biting. That vort energy is too close to the main shortwave. You’ll just advect out the colder airmass before the main show arrives in that look as the two would eventually phase i think….you need that Wisconsin/Minnesota piece to run out well ahead

That doesn’t exactly scream warm solution extrapolated out. All that smooshed vort energy leading the main shortwave looks like it would hold in high pressure well…but I ain’t biting until we see most guidance trend this way

Clown range NAM but those were pretty big changes by 72-84h. Lot of confluence going on.

Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now.

Yeah I saw that. Almost trying to recreate the good look from several days ago except it’s not using this massive piece of the TPV to do it…trying to key in on a smaller vortmax which is more precarious. It’s doable but that would require things to actually trend well inside of 5 days.

Yeah we’re probably cooked regardless. But it’s definitely not happening if we trend back warmer at 12z.

Gonna need another solid trend south/colder today to get me interested.

Ukie trended colder but it wasn’t really enough for down here. Only a modest amount of front end snow. Prob would be pretty good in NNE. Still need some more trends.

I think we were a bit shy here but not too far below. I want to say something like 54-55” or so.

If 1/17 last winter hadn’t pulled the most grotesque 1 in 100 phase that ripped it up the Hudson valley, last winter may have had a legit standing as solidly good. That cost us double digits in snowfall and also a large change in the tenor of the month. It would’ve given us deep pack almost the whole month after 1/7. It would’ve turned January into a true big dog month.

Yeah I’m hoping this system will at least be decent for NNE because the situation is going to be pretty dire there if they eat a 3 inch rainstorm. As bad as it’s been down here, it’s been sneaky horrific in NNE since about Xmas.

Just saw 18z GFS. That’s one way to save the system for NNE. Not even that bad for interior SNE pike northward. Net gain there. Kind of hard to buy right now until more guidance trends that way.

What other storms besides the blizzard last year? That was my only 12”+ storm. Jan 7th was maybe 8” here, you did have a great band that prob gave you a foot. I can’t think of any others that got close there. Feb 25th was around 9” here but we were close to jackpot. Most people had 6-8.

That Jan 2001 pattern you showed highlights how subtle differences can make a large impact on sensible wx. Jan 2001 wasn’t cold but it wasn’t warm either. The pacific wasn’t quite as hostile. That ridging in Canada was displaced a little west too. I think Jan ‘87 was somewhat similar as well. Big ridge over Canada but we weren’t torching because we had some subtle features a bit more favorable in both ATL and PAC. The first 3 weeks of Jan ‘87 were actually semi-mild but we just got crushed with snow because the storm track was favorable. We lived in that +2 to +3 temp departure zone.

Yeah you just need to avoid +10 (which we aren’t doing in the upcoming storm)

Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus.

2020-2021 was a pretty good winter at least here. I was above normal with 2 storms over a foot and another around 10”. The 80s basically had 2 really good winters (81-82 and 86-87) and 2 half-decent winters (83-84 and 87-88)..the rest were just smoking hot turds shoveled into our mouths. We didn’t have a really high-end winter though that decade like we typically have other decades….it was modest upside with a shit ton of downside. The 80s did have some really good spring storms though…April ‘82, Mar ‘84 and Apr ‘87 come to mind.

We’ll there was a reason I said I was skeptical….

We haven’t had any Aleutian ridging in a while…it’s been El Niño out there recently. I’m sure a flat Aleutian ridge will show up just in time for February to give us a classic Niña February with a stout SE ridge….

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter.

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it.