ORH_wxman

Yeah we’re probably cooked regardless. But it’s definitely not happening if we trend back warmer at 12z.

Gonna need another solid trend south/colder today to get me interested.

Ukie trended colder but it wasn’t really enough for down here. Only a modest amount of front end snow. Prob would be pretty good in NNE. Still need some more trends.

I think we were a bit shy here but not too far below. I want to say something like 54-55” or so.

If 1/17 last winter hadn’t pulled the most grotesque 1 in 100 phase that ripped it up the Hudson valley, last winter may have had a legit standing as solidly good. That cost us double digits in snowfall and also a large change in the tenor of the month. It would’ve given us deep pack almost the whole month after 1/7. It would’ve turned January into a true big dog month.

Yeah I’m hoping this system will at least be decent for NNE because the situation is going to be pretty dire there if they eat a 3 inch rainstorm. As bad as it’s been down here, it’s been sneaky horrific in NNE since about Xmas.

Just saw 18z GFS. That’s one way to save the system for NNE. Not even that bad for interior SNE pike northward. Net gain there. Kind of hard to buy right now until more guidance trends that way.

What other storms besides the blizzard last year? That was my only 12”+ storm. Jan 7th was maybe 8” here, you did have a great band that prob gave you a foot. I can’t think of any others that got close there. Feb 25th was around 9” here but we were close to jackpot. Most people had 6-8.

That Jan 2001 pattern you showed highlights how subtle differences can make a large impact on sensible wx. Jan 2001 wasn’t cold but it wasn’t warm either. The pacific wasn’t quite as hostile. That ridging in Canada was displaced a little west too. I think Jan ‘87 was somewhat similar as well. Big ridge over Canada but we weren’t torching because we had some subtle features a bit more favorable in both ATL and PAC. The first 3 weeks of Jan ‘87 were actually semi-mild but we just got crushed with snow because the storm track was favorable. We lived in that +2 to +3 temp departure zone.

Yeah you just need to avoid +10 (which we aren’t doing in the upcoming storm)

Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus.

2020-2021 was a pretty good winter at least here. I was above normal with 2 storms over a foot and another around 10”. The 80s basically had 2 really good winters (81-82 and 86-87) and 2 half-decent winters (83-84 and 87-88)..the rest were just smoking hot turds shoveled into our mouths. We didn’t have a really high-end winter though that decade like we typically have other decades….it was modest upside with a shit ton of downside. The 80s did have some really good spring storms though…April ‘82, Mar ‘84 and Apr ‘87 come to mind.

We’ll there was a reason I said I was skeptical….

We haven’t had any Aleutian ridging in a while…it’s been El Niño out there recently. I’m sure a flat Aleutian ridge will show up just in time for February to give us a classic Niña February with a stout SE ridge….

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter.

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it.

Oh yeah. It’s embarrassing how much they were solely focused on the $$. It’s hard to wrap my head around the SEC having all the evidence gift-wrapped for them but didn’t take the one final step in actually checking to see if the trades were real. Gotta hand it to Madoff on how authentic everything looked though. That’s prob why the SEC didn’t get him much sooner. They were prob thinking “ok these trade tickets are real”. The most mind-boggling aspect though is how successful Madoff was at his legitimate market-making business. You’d think that would’ve been enough success and $$. But greed knows no bounds.

Let’s trend this into a FROPA and then grab a CCB from the low that redevelops on the front.

Yeah this seems to be one of those dogshit years….but as you said, we’ve had some brutally awful starts before and then turned it around. But it’s a lot harder to do in La Niña. Need a 55-56 ending or 00-01 ending.

I dunno this feels like it’s trending toward Euro at the moment. Maybe it will reverse but it better happen pretty soon.

The PV lobe didn’t just disappear from euro, it also got weaker on the other guidance that still has it. It’s more like a little closed system rather than a larger portion of the TPV swinging southwest which is why the confluence/airmass doesn’t hold up at all. Just slides right out of the picture. In those solutions a couple days ago that had a real airmass, you had this big lobe swinging around the southwest side and creating an arctic high that held pretty stout.

He’s not interested in good-faith discussion. Just trying to post zingers. But I think he used up his 5 posts for today.

Might as well try and get some massive flooding rains out of this if we can’t get any snow.

Late Dec 2017 and early Jan 2018 had some legit cold. I think ORH set like 4 or 5 cold records during that stretch (3 or 4 record low maxes and a record low min)