ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Where did the PV lobe go? Lol....just disappeared.
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Finally back to steady snow here...hopefully we're done with the sucker holes. In theory, those echoes should intensify as they move east from ORH county and western MA.
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We had some huge aggregates a few min ago but back into another mini sucker hole...can't seem to escape them so far. But clearly if we get under some steady echoes, it wants to snow, so hopefully we can get a nice 3-4 hour burst here starting soon.
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GEFS were quite a bit snowier than the 06z run....there must be a lot of good members in there.
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Just started snowing again here with those echoes.
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GFS also digs the trough into Florida. Where's the southeast ridge all the experts were telling me was there when we need?
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Should go back to rain when the warm front from Albany moves through.
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You wasted one of your 5 posts on that? You hate to see it.
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Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours.
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Pretty good echoes developing in SW CT right now...as that pushes east, more echoes should fill in and we'll see if they can intensify for a good 3-4 hour burst this afternoon. That's what to watch for int he next few hours
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Massive fatties at WaWa (time sensitive) https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/
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Lift is a lot better with the midday/afternoon stuff.
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Most day 9 potential storms don't work out so it wouldn't be surprising. But who knows...maybe something else breaks favorable like Monday or the 1/11 system comes back from the dead.
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I actually think it starts looking better again around the 20th. But we'll see.
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Nice solution for ORH through 495 belt and up into S NH. Even 128 belt metrowest does well later this afternoon....something to watch.
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Yes, it's good you are snowing now...the other question there is how much QPF you get from the afternoon stuff. The best is prob to your east and northeast, but by how much? Maybe you get an inch this afternoon....or maybe you get 3".
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Yep....that is the key in this one...if we trend toward less northern stream insert, then we can punt this one to the moon.
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Looks like around 17z-22z is the best period....this morning's batch is kind of the appetizer but the better lift and soundings look like when that commahead tries to form.
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Snowing in ORH now. Mixing with snow here but still mostly pingers.
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Steady sleet just commenced here actually. Assumed it was raining and when I opened door it I could hear all the pingers.
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The crappy solutions for the 1/14 storm are not inserting much northern stream energy. That is a requirement for the storm to be any good. You don’t want this just cutting off from the polar jet otherwise it turns into a spring storm.
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10z runs were wild. Should be interesting later today.
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I think it’s mostly going to be how good the lift is. A lot of those zonked solutions with 4-6” had big omega and big QPF on 3 hour progs. Some of these warmer ones are just a bit more subdued on the dynamics. It’s usually safer to go with the more subdued progs but you always have to keep the zonked ones in the back of your mind when you have an unstable sounding like we have tomorrow.
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3k is colder than 12k…kind of a flip from 18z
