ORH_wxman

Gonna have to watch 1/9 a little closer? Both Icon and GFS somewhat interesting so far at 12z.

I don’t think it’s ever happened away from the coast there. Looking at BDL, which isn’t exactly a snow magnet, their lowest is 14.7 in 1936-37 and then 14.9 in 1988-89. BDR has done it a handful of times but their lowest is 8.2” so I’d find it difficult for your location to have ever been sub-10” at least in the years we have records. I’m sure if you go back far enough prior to official records maybe there was a near snowless winter.

1/12 and maybe 1/14-15 are prob the two periods to watch after this weekend. There’s a very low prob that 1/8 could try and bring something but the flow looks a bit too flat to get that system far enough north.

Yeah I’m just going to start aggressively moving the whining posts to the panic room thread. There’s actually some events to track now and even though many don’t care about an inland icing threat or marginal snow threat, some still do so the whiners/don’t carers can exit this thread or we will do it for them.

NAM is basically ZR north of pike over elevated interior by 12z Thursday. By overnight Thursday night, it cold tucks into eastern areas. Gotta watch that if there is light precip going on.

It mostly sucks where he is unless there’s good Atlantic blocking. But it can work for us. If it snows, nobody is going to remember any of the pattern talk. Snowfall is the end-all regardless of what the pattern shows.

There’s no QPF really for a real ice storm. It does look like there could be a prolonged period of freezing drizzle though so things could certainly get pretty slippery.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the whining reach this level. Not in 2013, not in 2015 and not in the horrific Jan/Feb/Mar 2020 stretch. It’s gotten embarrassing.

Yeah I’m fine with realism. Always saying it looks good or always saying it looks bad just eliminates any credibility.

Well deserved too.

This is the silver lining of the last few years. Some of these younger snow-entitled spoiled brats who never saw more than a couple cruddy years in a row can feel the sting a little bit.

Interesting look at the end with all that energy still west. Gonna have to watching for icing over interior too prior to that. Has the freezing drizzle look for like 24-36 hours after Thursday morning.

Yeah I thought that was funny. Whining nonstop about the ski trip and then a pattern coming up that looks quite good for ski country and he…..whines

Maybe but much better shot in that pattern than Taunton.

Prob nothing for you. Interior and NNE will have chances though in that pattern which they need to get back into the game for snowfall climo.

Regardless of the very end of the ensembles, people should not overlook the favorable look mid-month just before that.

Both of those patterns were pretty epic. That was part of the funny meltdowns….people were throwing tantrums left and right about not getting anything and then they both showed up inside of 6 days.

EPS was def better because it has the lower heights just offshore the west coast which often creates a bit of ridging in the Rockies.

If you didn’t wear a winter coat in Xmas Eve, you don’t need to own one at all. It was like 10F and windy. Lol.

That’s actually not a bad look overall. Esp for interior and NNE. It’s pretty active. I wouldn’t want to be on coast or further south though. Can’t sustain ridging up by Yukon so arctic cold will be limited.

Yeah but mostly rain first. The cold drain happens throughout We’d night/Thursday and eventually sub-freezing reaches SNE but most of the precip is rain before that happens. The bigger question is how much snow can happen from the last piece of energy rotating through for Friday. GFS has been a little more aggressive than other guidance. It’s dropping several inches while Euro is more like a little bit of light snow.

18z euro got more interesting. Here’s 90 hours (doesn’t go out any further on off-hour runs)….it’s already below freezing down to the pike at this point away from the coast…but that’s an awful lot of energy lagging back

Longwave pattern is really just showing where the general above normal and below normal heights are. We cannot discern from those maps how individual shortwaves will behave. So we typically like seeing ridging out west and into AK and troughing in the east…or ridging over Greenland/NAO region. You can see from the map that Brooklynwx99 posted, the height pattern is quite favorable for us. We like that look for trying to get snow events in here. We know this because of past years with similar looks and they tend to produce more often than not. But as we learned in December, there’s no guarantees.

Yes. It has always been like that. I was just chuckling at the sentiment that the pattern was being kicked down the road or that it never developed.

The funny part is we got the huge blocking to verify…but as some of us said before that pattern, nobody cares about longwave patterns in here, they care of it delivers snow or not. The pattern can set up like models showed but if the big snowstorm doesn’t happen, it’s irrelevant.