ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Going on a hike this afternoon once the youngest wakes up from nap. Gotta take advantage of these days. Beats the useless cold we just had with bare cracked ground.
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Still a lot of uncertainty beyond 1/5. GFS suite has been more aggressive on the cold…esp post 1/10. Euro suite not as much…it’s been more of a stale polar airmass look which is kind of what we had for a while in Jan 2021 before the pattern flipped to colder/snowier in the Jan 25-Feb 15 timeframe.
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Forecasting a pattern and forecasting specific storms threats, etc are definitely two different things. The Dec 9-25 period is a good illustration. The general pattern was forecasted quite well. I’ve posted the composite. The individual storm threats were a total nightmare to forecast during that period.
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Dissenting points of view are definitely welcome. But they will be mocked mercilessly if they don’t have much substance or science to it.
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It can be. No guarantees though. It’s a good way to “reshuffle” the hemispheric pattern though. It will help make coastals a little more favorable than a classic base state La Niña pattern.
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Yep if you wanted a break from La Niña, the upcoming pattern has granted that wish. Both N PAC and the North America pattern look like El Niño boilerplate.
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It’s basically split flow with above normal heights over most of Canada but BN over the south in the LR. Very El Niño-ish. It can work as long as you keep the flow split…Jan ‘83 was like that and so was Jan 2016….but I like how in this case, the STJ wouldn’t be as raging.
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Retro that mean ridge a bit back toward Rockies like weeklies and GEFS have and it would prob start getting a lot colder. Not Jan 2003 cold…that is one of the colder Januarys in the pst few decades…but still colder than we’ve been. Kind of weird seeing very low gradient in the height field in a Niña though. Might give us some chances in a meh pattern coming up here in the next 7-10 days.
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No, midweek system is like 1/3. We’re talking end of week.
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That man high has been showing up a bit more on various runs. Even some of the EPS members had it. It’s watchable at least. Better than nothing to track. Also, getting an event on 1/5 would be a bit of a bonus when we were mostly writing off until at least 1/8-1/9
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Low confidence forecasts. I mentioned this yesterday but the long range guidance is not confident on the look past the first week of Jan. This isn’t high confidence like we saw with the monster December NAO block and -EPO block. Ensembles were very confident with not a ton of spread.
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Actually impressive how close the match is on the pattern over much of North America…except we got the PV trapped under the Baffin block in Dec ‘55 which actually just gave us suppression depression and frigid temps.
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Meteorological winter is just a designated date on the calendar. It doesn’t mean anything in terms of sensible wx. Early March is a lot more wintry than early December. If you asked me what our coldest/snowiest 3 month period is from a climo standpoint, I’d prob say something like 12/10-3/10…maybe even 12/15-3/15.
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I love when people at 1200 feet in ORH county try and credibly claim winter is over on Feb 28.
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Yeah it’s possible there’s a connection. Those were both brutal stretches here too. That ‘32-44 stretch was nearly as bad as the ‘79-‘92 stretch here.
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There were some good mid-Atlantic winters that decade. Esp southern and coastal mid-Atlantic. Like jersey shore area down to Delmarva. But they were brutal up here. There were basically 3 solid winters that decade but no true blockbuster winters. ‘86-87 was close I guess. And there were some awful rats. Just god-awful snow totals in spots multiple years.
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We’re just worried about him. Sometimes we have to whip him back into winter mode, even if it means dragging him there while kicking and screaming.
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Dude, you need to log off for like a solid week and then check back in. You’re going to drive yourself crazy searching for a winter wx event 10+ days out.
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Yeah and I don’t think the pattern looks that great by 1/10 anyway on the EPS. But we’re getting close to peak climo for cold so simply moving away from an AK pig would give us some chances. GEFS looks a bit better. There will likely be changes too on the ensembles given the spread we see right now. The mean is not a high-confidence mean like we saw in the NAO block some weeks back. Ensembles were very confident in that -EPO/-NAO pattern. They are not confident at all in the 11-15 day right now.
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Right but that just reinforces my main point…we’re essentially looking at d10-15 snowfall. Nothing before that. Any “calls” about snowfall beyond D10 should be very low confidence. It’s different than when you’re going into a favorable pattern like around d5 where you’d prob get a slew of ensemble members showing something favorable prior to d10.
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In practice, any snowfall on there south of about the VT/Canada border is prob beyond D9…so in that sense, it’s mostly long range snowfall.
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The amount of spread on these makes it somewhat useless to try and prognosticate on snowfall.
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EPS looked pretty bad in the D10-13 range. It got better at the very end. But there’s a ton of spread on the EPS (and the GEFS too) so it’s hard to take the LR too seriously at the moment. The tropical forcing seems to generally get more favorable as we go into January so hopefully that produces better outcomes.
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Euro and EPS took a step toward GFS for 1/5-6. That one might be watchable. Esp for NNE but perhaps further south.
