ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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2-3” would feel like a KU this winter
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It's funny that the 925 temps are like -7 while 850 is struggling to be below 0C.....dendrites below the warm layer?
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I mean, we don’t really care if there is an SSW or not if the TPV is being stretched and ripped apart. Part of the intrigue with SSWs is that they will propagate down into the troposphere and cause the PV to get displaced and/or stretched/split. If the latter is already happening, then it’s the end-game we were rooting for. Id say the only thing a big SSW and SPV-split can do is often it may prolong the tropospheric PV (TPV) being displaced and broken.
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Yeah if we get the PV down into Hudson Bay like that, then there’s more wiggle room to deal with western troughing. It will help promote more confluence in addition to better antecedent airmasses.
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Fwiw, that EPO ridge goes whacko on the GEFS this run...it's covering a large part of the arctic ocean. Quite a bit more amplified than the EPS
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What do the geese say about the upcoming storm? Any chance it backs further west?
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Latest echoes are 32.1F drizzle/light rain here. May have been a sleet pellet mixed in, but didn't wait outside to really confirm if I was just hearing things. At least everything is white for the next few hours.
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Is there a Euro/JMA rule? Lol....those are the two models that show a good hit.
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There were some offsetting features....12z was a bit stronger with the H5 closed low, but the whole thing was just a smidge east of 06z....the expanded H5 low helped offset the microscopic east trend. It's still an outlier though....I was wanting to see more help at 12z than we got. Just about all model guidance shifted west towards it but not by enough IMHO. We'll see though....we've had some of these weird "backing up" storms trend hard in the final 60 hours before.
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Actually it might as good as 06z...lol....it's backing up surprisingly well at 78h
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12z is still going to hammer the Cape, but I don't think it will be as far inland into SE MA as 06z was
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There's no precip.....next round is back in OH/PA....though there should be some lighter stuff trying to develop almost overhead this afternoon.
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You want the PV at least in Hudson Bay or a little east of that if you have a deep western trough....kind of like Feb '94....we had troughs digging pretty deep there but it worked out because the PV wasn't sitting over Alberta, it was much further east.
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GFS just keeps dumping deep troughs into the west....we slowly get arctic cold bleeding in here but it takes a long while....so that is partly why I'm not all that gung ho at least prior to 1/25....there's certainly a possibility that one of the pre-1/25 shortwaves produce something interesting, but no way to be confident in that with the deep western troughs it shows.
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The OP GFS has a good SWFE here anyway
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We only comment on the OP runs that show cutters these days...we ignore the D13 snowstorms.
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Euro is prob on crack....I'd be a lot more intrigued if this was a few years ago when it was more dominant on east coast storms.
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No the original cranberry bog storm was 12/31/08.
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One more pic. Actually coming down a bit harder now. Normally this wouldn’t even get attention but this winter it feels like a real storm
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Yeah Jan 27, 2008 to be specific.
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Fatties
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Icon still a clean whiff but it did back west about 40-50 miles.
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Let back that in another 40-50 miles.
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Nice fatties falling here. Solid coating on everything.
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This weekend....storm that crushed the Cape/SE MA on the 06z Euro
