ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Can’t disagree with him though on either Thursdays system or the pattern beyond. Latitude is going to be a premium variable with the SE ridge.
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I dunno, sounded kind of wishy-washy. The pattern broke down pretty quick after Xmas, but this time the pattern is getting established after Jan 23-24 so it’s not an analogous comparison to that evolution. The pattern could always shit the bed I suppose. That’s def a possibility.
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I’d be tossing them far and wide for S ME into S/C NH…down here I feel like we don’t get those lower level temps established at all…maybe some drain during the event with a little help of wetbulbing. But the subtle colder trend is encouraging.
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The look is pretty darned good beyond D9…the Jan 23-24 system is definitely precarious which is what precedes that cold blast…maybe that’s what he was cryptically talking about. But it’s hard to say the EPS doesn’t look good for us beyond that. We all don’t really care what it looks like though if there’s no snow, so a lot of this is mostly moot in here. We’re actually tracking potential snow events prior to that anyway. They look best for NNE but can’t rule them out down here yet.
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RGEM is pretty cold too. Not buying these colder solutions until we’re way closer though.
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The snow is really dense…prob a little bit of sleet in there too…makes for good staying power even with temps in the mid 30s. We’ll prob lose most of it though over the next couple days as temps nudge above 40F.
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Was that Jan ‘99? I think that one had temps ridiculously cold at the onset. Trying to think of some ice storms from back then…obv it wasn’t Jan ‘98…and I can’t remember any other ones…Feb 14, 1997 was kind of big in ORH. But we didn’t have a half inch radial ice in that one. Maybe a quarter inch which is still pretty good.
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And you almost always need active for a major icing event (say, greater than 3/8th radial)…though you can maybe get close if the low level antecedent airmass is extremely good, but that’s kind of hard to do without having a lot of sleet and snow contamination eating up QPF on the front end…which then by default means less QPF as ZR.
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The PV placement is definitely key when we have the huge Aleutian ridge with some western troughing and a SE ridge. If it’s west of Hudson Bay, we’re in for a rough time mostly, but over or (preferably) east of Hudson Bay, and we can do really well. There will still be cutter risk of course but typically even the cutters in that type of setup have triple point lows that tend to limit how long we warm sector in New England.
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Nah. I can buy some sleet in a small zone but icing (freezing rain) will be almost non-existent in this. Maybe a really small area in high terrain somewhere south of the snow line but it’s likely negligible. This is prob a cold rain for most of us until after the main low passes and then we could get an area of light snow as the upper level energy hangs back. But that might end up north too if the whole system trends north which these always have a good chance of doing.
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I told him this earlier but he ignored me.
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Or the Bills in 1992 wildcard round against the Oilers. (35-3 in the 3rd quarter)
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Ramping up in the last 2-3 min. Started as big fat puffy flakes but light…like almost flurries but now the ridge line 3/4th mile away is starting to get obscured. So almost moderate snow now. Like a snow globe.
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Sell that idea. Lower levels are garbage ahead of this so I don’t like the icing idea…maybe an extremely narrow zone could get a bit of ice. There is a chance we get a flip to snow as the upper level support hangs back for quite a while.
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Snow was pretty dense so it made good piles. My boys are enjoying it this morning
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At least grass is covered and looks like winter
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Ripping here right now. Had some pingers when I was up about an hour ago but now it’s solid moderate snow.
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It’s def snow on that panel…but yeah, I get not getting invested in a day 8 OP run.
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That map doesn’t have ptype on it.
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Decent band rotating toward north shore/Cape Anne.
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Some of that may be bright banding but not all.
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Once those big dog echoes hit, it should start sticking much faster I think.
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I think upper cape and PYM county are starting to look pretty good on this. Nowcast for sure but those are some big echoes moving west.
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Let’s get a GFS/Euro compromise. Steal a warning event for the pike.
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Yeah that stuff near ACK is the type of precip we want to see get onshore to get good amounts.
