ORH_wxman

GGEM is more like what you want to see for 1/25 if we're not getting a coastal out of it....you have that front-running shortwave in Canada get well out ahead of the southern stream piece which allows a decent high to set up. That at least gives you a solid chance for a SWFE.

Post-1/25 is objectively a pattern change though.

Yeah after the 25th, we get arctic air in here for the first time since Xmas Eve. So we'll see if we can pop something in the final week of the month or early February while the PV is close by us....we can handle some revision back to western troughing as long as the PV is nearby Hudson Bay or eastward. Once it retreats back toward the pole or if it ends up in western Canada, then we're cooked. There's a possibility it could sort of split too...EPS hints at that....one piece does end up in western Canada but another is to our northeast over Labador....that type of setup can work too. Early Feb 2017 was like that when we got blitzed with multiple storms.

It's ironic that only today's system has any type of decent high....and of course, today's system has the worst airmass of any of the next 3 threats. Rearranging the pieces but they always follow Murphy's Law....whatever type of combo gives the least snow.

It redevelops....it's basically a SWFE, but any marginal cold gets mostly advected out due to a weak low front-running the main system up in Canada.....it's the same theme....we cannot buy a solid high. It does give some snow though north of the pike and more up into NH/ME. The 25th is another storm where if there is any type of high, the airmass would be more than good enough for snow even though it's not an arctic airmass.

The 25th on GFS almost looks like today's storm.

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Need something more like the NAM to have a chance....GFS went the right direction to try for it, but you can see how ridiculous of a needle-threader it is for SNE. Almost not worth even tracking here....but we're watching models anyway for 1/25 so I guess we're gonna see it one way or the other. Hopefully it doesn't come back in amped...it would be nice for at least part of NE to get something from it.

I'd really only apply the "NAM has a warm bias" when we're more like 60 hours out until very close in....at 84 hours, it's so far out that it can be wrong in all sorts of directions which is frequently is. Some other guidance was trying to come in flatter though on that, so it's not on a total island. It's still a really bad setup though....even an ideal track would probably struggle to snow inside of 495 and southeast of I-84 in CT.

Technically BOS has already had an advisory event though....they cleared 3" in the 1/15-16 event

Prob 2006-2007....you prob didn't get an advisory event until St. Patty's day that winter (unless you cracked 3" of sleet in the Vday storm).

Biggest problem is zero high/confluence. The airmass isn't great but it would easily be enough if we weren't getting blasted with southerly winds on the front end. Usually we'd have light E or NE winds out ahead of a system if there was any type of high.

1/23 is coming in pretty flat on some of these more recent runs (12z NAM....yes i know it's the NAM), 06z Euro and even 06z GFS came in a bit flatter though still more amped than the other two. That setup has such a bad high placement though that I think even a decent track would only benefit interior SNE.

Ray is still promising me 1956 ending.

Both systems look like ka-ka for SNE....1/25 has a better chance to do well, but we'll need some luck on that one too.

Most guidance has been shifting north with Friday stuff. It looks like mostly north of pike now....though you still may get a little. But I think best chances for 2-3" would be north.

The snow near and south of the pike is mostly dependent on Friday. Some runs look really good and others are just a few snow showers.

I basically need between 55-60” from here on out to reach average. Not happening without some big dogs.

First euro run that really hits the Friday stuff decently too.

1/23 back to being torchy on GFS except for far NNE. But 1/25 coming in decent again.

That Friday stuff on GFS is getting pretty impressive. Looks a little colder than the 1/6 IVT which struggled to accumulate but a lot of that depends on snow growth too.

Really good cross-hair sig on the NAM in that area too....that's both good for keeping it snow and also increases risk for power issues since you start getting hooked dendrites near freezing creating massive aggregates that stick to everything.

Spread is massive though....the individual plot looks like buckshot...tells me we'll prob see a lot of model volatility over the next couple days on that one

The pond near here was like 5-6" thick ice in Dec 2013 and Dec 2017 with people skating all over it and playing hockey. It's open water right now (had some thin ice yesterday but its gone today).

Potential for 2010 MLK-esque melt is pretty high. Esp if this trends even another tick colder and he’s watching BOS get pounded for several hours.