ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I wouldn’t sell the last few days of January yet post-1/25. Could be something overrunning there…but nuances won’t be predicted yet this far out. I do like seeing lots of scooter highs traversing to our north on some of these runs.
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Well a few days ago this was flipping to rain up past dendrite so it did trend favorably….just not enough for south of pike. Really south of rt 2 is mostly skunked but pike region may get a couple inches tomorrow.
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Violent endings are typically the exception. I’m still envisioning this being like a steady light to moderate 6-8 hour deal on Monday that drops 1-3”. Maybe we get lucky back here with a little more. But the intense 1-2” per hour rates are unlikely unless we really curl that upper air trough south of us…but it seems to be a bit more positively tilted than I’d like to see. There’s still some good jet mechanics there so a heavier band or two embedded may happen.
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Super flat at 06z. Just like NAM was super amped. Both converging toward the middle.
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Horrific starts to winter do some damage to people…esp in NNE. Interventions may be required.
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The risk is quite high that we sneak a cutter in there even during these 10-14 days where it’s a colder pattern. But at least there’s real cold behind those systems and real cold lurking just to the north so we’ll have some chances.
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Reggie is really good for those who stay mostly snow. Big hits there to ORH. But southeast where they are relying on Monday’s changeover it was kind of weak. Prob like 1-3” of slop finish.
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Yeah it’s pretty robust aloft.
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Sfc low is hanging well back from 06z so this will be better for Monday.
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Yes. Though the worst of it may be little before that.
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You can already see the 12z NAM will be south of 06z through 6 hours. Question is how far south.
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Main precip shield doesn’t get in here until tonight and that’s what will be rain. Any scattered stuff earlier will prob be snow.
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HRRR looks violent on Monday.
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Yeah we’ll you aren’t getting much on the front end so most of us are relying on the monday CCB stuff south of ORH-ASH line.
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It’s the furthest north outlier at the moment so it’s prob wrong. But in this winter, I get hedging.
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https://www.simpleimageresizer.com
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Main shortwave goes negative pretty far west. If that can be tamed just a bit then it would mean a lot more snow in the front end. There will still be plenty of snow up there on the front end but you may have a decent period of pingers/ZR too.
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I’m kind of skeptical for us still. I think we’ll get accumulating snow but I’m still leaning on like 2-3” from the Monday stuff. But admittedly I’m still “worried” about a big positive bust. My snowblower is still in the backyard shed. I take it out every year in December. Never bothered this year and haven’t needed it.
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Yeah the GFS run does share the wealth pretty good. Obviously that requires both parts of the storm to go as advertised but it’s a good solution to make snow lovers fairly happy
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Yeah starting to get hard to ignore the Monday stuff. I’d still like to see the sfc low hand back a little more. The more low level support for that CCB, I think the best chance it can go nuts….help keep the BL from trying to dry out a little.
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GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z
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I’ll just say that there are some select posters who have a long track record going back many years (in some cases a decade plus) before this winter and there’s a reason if any of them have restrictions on their account. I’ll leave it at that as well.
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Yeah I’m not super impressed by the CCB right now. I think the sfc low is prob gonna outrun things a little too much to make this really good…but I can see maybe a good 4-6 hour burst in marginal temps that drops a couple inches….maybe a little more if lucky. I’d love to be wrong…there is still some upside bust potential here. So I’ll keep an eye on the short term stuff tomorrow and tomorrow night. Phase 1 of the storm looks like 90% rain here…so not all that interested in that south of N ORH hills.
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I don't think this event has ever really been a true SWFE. It’s mostly been a coastal (albeit a hugger at times) once we were inside of 4-5 days. It just has no high pressure so most of the solutions have been pretty warm.
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It’s meaningless…without any real discussion, you might as well debate whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. Yeah someone will be correct, but it doesn’t mean anything when there was no skill to it.
