ORH_wxman

I’m fine with pessimism as long as it’s backed up by some legit meteorology. But when they aren’t and it’s clearly an attempt to troll, then there’s a reason the reactions are what they are.

Yeah that run crushes you. 12+. Doubt it ends up that prolific though.

It looks like the Monday stuff is real and that’s where most of the snow south of NH border will come from. I’m skeptical of crazy 1-2” per hour stuff but I could see a 6-8 hour period of light to moderate snow that dumps 2-3”.

Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB

The 18z run was so cold that I find it almost unrealistic that 00z would come in colder or hold serve.

I’m still expecting a slight tick back north to take pike region out of any front end snow…I think we could get some in the CCB on Monday but I’m not buying the violent solutions that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. Hopefully I’m wrong though and we tick it one more nudge colder.

Yeah N CT got mostly skunked but that inch line prob got down a bit south of the pike…at least in some areas.

That map isn’t final. ORH had 3”+ and that map shows like an inch. I had almost 2” down here.

He said there was no pattern change. I tried to engage a little bit a couple days ago when it briefly looked like he wanted to discuss in good faith…but that quickly went by the wayside. Having the PV move down to Hudson Bay is something we haven’t seen for a month. There’s still western troughing, but there’s arctic air nearby now so we’ll have some chances. It prob goes to shit as we go deeper into February….I haven’t disagreed with that part, but that’s out in clown range for now.

I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though.

Typically that doesn’t end up mattering much but in a really marginal setup it can be the difference. Tip likes to call it “cold capped”….ala Dec ‘97 storm. If you have trouble heating the sfc, then the adjacent 925-950 layer ends up maybe one half tick colder and that could matter for those on the line.

3k looked great for ORH-ASH line.

I’d be officially invested where you are now. I still need to see another bump to convince me but it’s looking more likely that even my area gets a little in the CCB.

18z NAM coming in colder but 12z was pretty torchy/north so not a shock. We’ll see just how far south it comes.

Yeah I’ll maybe bite if 00z big boy models keep trending that way. Literally trying to thread a needle without anything to guide the thread.

It was a system that got crunched south. We were forecasted to get like 2-4” in ORH and then at the last second they downgraded to 1-2” and we actually got zero…not a single flake. But about 10 miles south had 3” and there were some spots in CT that had 4-6”

Colder than the 12z run. Not buying them yet though. EPS also wasn’t really buying the OP run’s vicious ending…though it had a weaker version of it.

You didn’t get anything in the 12/11/97 event? Maybe Norwalk was barely on wrong side of R/S line

Yeah I’d agree. If rates/lift are robust, then it’s going to produce and lower level temps will respond. If they aren’t, then we get another “white rain” scenario outside of the higher terrain…maybe a couple of slushy inches on the grass but wet roads/driveways. The earlier closing off of the system would help too…You start the process of ageo drain and also blunt the northward extent of the low level WAA earlier than other scenarios. I’d have more confidence in snowier solutions over interior MA if we had a solid high but we’re working with a high in a terrible spot and relying on in-situ CAD and evaporational cooling on a flatter scenario.

925 temps are -2C during that crazy CCB so that is definitely going to be snow. But clearly it’s the type of thing where good accumulations would be rate-dependent. Esp lower elevations. Im fairly skeptical on a euro type evolution but we’ll see.

The short term mesos (HRRR/RAP) are really flat with tomorrow. Kind of weird as they are often amped on coastal systems.

There’s an ongoing thread for 1/23

That’s actually a really dynamic look on the euro. That’s what you want to see if you’re trying to flip this into something good further south. That trailing energy really goes to town before the baroclinic zone is too Far East.

Thick clouds all day so far has kind of led to a low grade temp bust. Was expecting the snow to be wiped out quickly but we’ve hovered around freezing so it still looks nice out there. You take the small victories in a winter like this