ORH_wxman

Jet mechanics FTW. I think Chris posted it earlier and I was discussing yesterday, but we have a pretty impressive left exit region with this CCB so that got the job done. Sometimes we’ll have a ULL/energy swinging underneath us but not much jet assist, and it can just be light to moderate stuff, but we were able to get that extra enhanced lift to get heavy bands.

Yep most of that fell in 90 minutes.

Man snow. I just went out and shoveled really quick during this lull and the piles look like I got double my 3.5 so far

In a little sucker hole now but those last 90 min were intense. Looks like another good band about to rotate in that’s hammering ORH to windham county…someone on the north shore must be doing well because that band has been parked there

Over 3” now

Still poundtown up on north shore....good band over ORH now too

North shore is really pounding now per radar

Utterly pounding in this band....I must be approaching 2" already eyeballing outside.

Incoming for you on another band

Metrowest band

Really going to town now

Rippage

Metrowest is going to absolutely rip for a bit....these are impressive bands setting up

Clock is ticking there....hopefully that stuff rotating SE near NY border keeps backfilling for a bit, but otherwise it's prob another hour or two of the steady stuff.

Some impressive bands starting to set up....maybe we can actually exceed 2" in this??....that would exceed expectations. We'll see, but I like the radar right now.

Steady snow...temp has dipped to 32F...shouldnt have much trouble accumulating.

Over-stating attribution is just as anti-science as implying there is none.

What is the physical mechanism though? Models aren't taking a hypothetical mid-20th century climate and trying to apply it to 2023.....they are ingesting real time data. A smaller PV might make the model performance a bit worse because models perform worse in lower gradient environments....however, the model verification score improvement is at odds with that theory becoming dominant. Models are improving faster than any sort of "shrinking PV" can offset that performance.

Snow line is basically over BOS now on CC-dual pol. We're not snowing here though, but echoes are really light right now...we'll see if its flakes when this batch knocking on the door comes through.

No it does not mean that.....just the average temp of the globe was 1C cooler. The arctic is where the most warming has happened, so it might be like 4C cooler there....while in many tropical areas it hasn't warmed at all. In our case in the state of MA, if we take the average DJFM temps from the middle 20th century and do a least squares regression, we've warmed at about 0.18C per decade which equates to about 1.3C of warming where we are. So it happens that our area is pretty close to that 1C of warming as it turns out but that won't be true everywhere.

Flipped over to snow in ORH now.

Looks like snow line is just getting near Tolland up through ORH and northeast along 495

No it wasn’t directed at you but I’ve seen some posts from others that hinted at it WRT ensemble forecasts and such not verifying as cold. And yeah, I don’t think it’s controversial to say “if this event happened in a world where it was 1C colder, then it would have been more wintry”….duh

Attribution studies are inherently imprecise. We know CC is obviously making things warmer….however, I don’t see much utility at all in discussing CC as it pertains to forecasting using NWP guidance. The laws of atmospheric thermodynamics don’t change. Model guidance is not going to be too cold or too warm because of CC. They are simply taking actual data (which is from a CC world) and then simulating the atmosphere with that data using the laws of thermodynamics and physics.

Man, and that was the one good storm all winter.