ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,902 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
I'm all-in on the OP GFS massive NAO block near the end of the run.
-
Yeah a large majority of our cold records are from this type of delivery....for the reasons you stated. Typically the mid-atlantic and places further west will get their best cold shots from down through the lakes (partly because they are too far southwest to get the more northerly delivery), but ours do much better when coming out of that Ottawa/Montreal corridor.
-
When was the last time we saw -40C 850 temps make it into New England? Jan 2004? The Feb 2016 cold shot was actually a bit more low-level and 850 temps were "merely" in the -33C to -35C range.
-
That is a ridiculous cold shot on the GFS....hopefully we have bare ground for it.
-
-
Yeah, that was insane...I had like 14" but it all fell in like 4-5 hours, lol. EWB to PYM had kind of gotten screwed in the previous two events, so they started playing catchup there....and they got some good events after that when we finally started coming back to earth.
-
Yep, sometimes you just catch all the breaks....and that was what happened during that period. The pattern was definitely awesome, but we could replicate that longwave pattern again 100 times and prob not get as much as we did. Though the funyn part is we actually did narrowly miss a bit more too....I recall 1/31 a few days after the blizzard, we lost a storm east that hammered Eastport. But it was briefly giving us like 6-10" on model guidance.
-
The coop had 30.5....their largest of all time beating out 1888 by half an inch.
-
Yeah I was really skeptical that it was even possible to beat out February 1934...that month was so crazy anomalous, yet we somehow beat it over 70 years later....that's pretty insane. ORH also broke their coldest J/F/M combo by over a full degree. We paid the piper though later that year in December.
-
The Ginxy-ORH band was crazy awesome.
-
13.5" and +7.6 on temps.
-
Oh it’s def looks above normal to me beyond Feb 10th…but not in the same way January was. January (at least until the last week here) had an utter dearth of cold up north….we look to get mild because of SE ridge flexing but the EPO ridge remains intact, at least through mid-Feb…we’ll see about beyond that…which means we still have a cold loading pattern into Canada and N Plains…so even if we are above normal, there could easily be an event or two mixed in when you time your cold shots correctly.
-
LOL…this was pretty good
-
Not sure when you joined the boards, but he has an extremely long track record (like a decade) of downplaying cold/snow and hyping warmth….think JB in reverse. So he will look good in torch periods even if it’s for the wrong reasons.
-
I don’t mind seeing it down there right now.
-
EPS has them…but obviously they can go either way. The d6-7 sig was actually probably the best one and not a few days later like the OP run had.
-
Looks like the pinger line is near HFD
-
It def looks a bit worse to me than guidance earlier today had it. Might not make a huge difference up there but the dryslot never looked this big until we were really close in.
-
Guidance has trended less CAD today so not sure it’s going to stay below 40F over interior…maybe up by rt 2 back to N Berkshires. This whole system just trended more influence from the primary….which is part of the reason the forcing in the snow portion of this sucks so bad. We wanted more fording further east.
-
Yeah we’ll see. I can def buy it over SE zones but not sure how far NW those amounts will get. I’m certainly skeptical of some of those 3” amounts we saw from mesos earlier.
-
GFS still trying to give me an inch and a quarter.
-
Yea maybe se MA does but I’m not expecting more than about 7 or 8 tenths looking at things. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was closer to a half inch….though there will be some convective elements in there so you can still get some decent amounts.
-
I mean, it didn't look impressive to begin with in SNE....we were largely missing out on the good forcing while we were cold enough for snow. I posted my concerns yesterday on how far west the vort was. But yeah, we somehow managed to underperform a 1-2" forecast in a SWFE.
-
Yes I think so...by the time more steady stuff moves in later this evening, it's going to be rain (maybe a short period of marginal ZR in spots or a few pingers up by Rt 2).
-
In a normal winter, all that stuff in NJ would be fire-hosing right into SNE right now and we’d be talking 6-8” front ender but this is winter ‘22-23 where we take otherwise decent setups, and mold them into dogshit.
