ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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What about 1/21/19? That day had a high of 1F at ORH. Coldest max temp since Jan 1994.
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I might throw in the towel too if I had a trace of snow through January.
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The Jan 1957 cold outbreak was the coldest temp on record at both ORH airport and at BOS Logan airport. Their previous cold records were at different locations that probably radiated better. The Feb 2016 cold outbreak was the coldest temps at each location since the 1957 outbreak. But yeah, toss that -56…not credible. It isn’t recognized officially anyway. I think the state record is -40 in 1984.
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Yeah winter hill is basically in Holden. About 200 yards past the top of the hill is the Worcester/Holden line. There’s often a big gradient across the city from the northern/northwestern part and the rest of the city. But sometimes it’s more drastic and this is one of those times where it looks like two different climates
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It is definitely frustrating to go like 4-5 seasons in a row below climo. But yeah, we had it coming. Between 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 (6 seasons), 5 of them were above climo for BDL. Only 2015-16 was below.
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Full snow cover on winter hill in ORH....go about 2 miles away and 300-400 feet lower and it's wiped almost totally clean. Crazy.
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Yeah there's a reasonable chance at something next week...whether it's just a crap C-2" event or something more significant can't be determined. But I do think we'll have multiple shots starting with 1/31-2/1....and prob going all the way through 2/8ish. Hopefully one of them is real...I'd enjoy a 2" event more if we already had a good pack....but otherwise give me a warning event.
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Lack of cold too is pretty awful this year....esp for January. December 2015 was an epic furnace, but at least January was within shouting distance of seasonal (like +2 on temps)....unlike this year where we're gonna finish top 5 warmest. For snow though....yeah, 2015-16 was worse to this point up in the pike region...southern half of CT though caught the northern chunk of the blizzard while we had a few inches of arctic sand.
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#11 on the list is also a funny one.....1968-1969. Then all hell broke loose in Feb '69. Too bad this isn't a weak Nino like that winter (though it didn't act like a Nino....actually acted like a Nina)
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Funny thing is if we assume BOS gets no additional measurable snowfall through end of January, this winter would "only" rank 15th for least snow through 1/31. 2006-2007 has the top spot....but other notables are 1988-1989, 2018-2019 (this one was surprising, but BOS did well in Feb/Mar that year), 1994-1995, and 1979-1980. 2011-2012 would actually rank 16th behind this year....
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That early? Nahhh
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Only way to stay sane this winter.
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Blizzard warnings issued....criteria has been adjusted for just the 2022-23 winter
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Yep....that warmup around 2/9=2/11 looks pretty transient....trying to reload at the end of the run....we'll see how it looks going forward.
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Yeah I'd figure they are close with CEF a little more. I was just curious where the CEF 49.5 came from....they don't have snow obs there since the 1960s.....there's a few coops that are kind of close by, but they aren't the same as first order airport obs.
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BDL seems high or CEF? What is the source of the CEF data they are using? Unfortunately Westover Field only kept snowfall data for about 20 years between the late 1940s-1960s
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Ukie actually tries for a snow event for south of pike for 1/31
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It might...unless the boom or bust seasons are occurring in roughly equal numbers, then it won't change it too much.
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BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5" Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4"
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Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean. For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2". BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean. If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1"
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Yes, not because of "5 bad ones in a row means i have a better shot at doing well next year"....you're offering an even money bet when we're about to go into an El Nino (that has a good chance at being modoki)....the fact that you said you would pull the bet if that didn't happen also means you agree with me that the El Nino factor is the real reason you're confident in better snow next season, not because of the voodoo "6 in a row".
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Well I wouldn't bet on it either because of the potential for El Nino....but outside of that, the other stuff doesn't matter. If we go into next year neutral ENSO, and you are still overwhelmingly confident in a big season, I'd take the bet with odds.
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The first part of your quote is perfectly valid....if we believe that we're going for a modoki El Nino, then there's reason to be think it's good. But the bolded is pretty much completely irrelevant. The reason you never had 6 in a row is because you previously never had 5 in a row (and rarely even had 3 or 4 in a row)....well, we already have had 5 in a row. That makes 6 in a row a hell of a lot easier when you already have 5 banked.
