ORH_wxman

Guidance has been cutting back on QPF for later too ive noticed.

Still can't believe we got almost completely skunked on that pattern (save for the small 12/11 event)....but it does happen (similar pattern occurred in Dec '87 where we got mostly skunked)

Never be afraid of what other posters think of your snow...the forum is for sharing obs and snow pics.

Blues over the east didn't do much good either.

Yes....though at least it's not as bad as it used to be. Remember on Eastern back in the day when we'd all be in the same model threads as DC posters? Every other threat, all the New England posters would be slapping high fives while getting death threats from Mid-Atlantic posters.

Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by.

There's a big break in the precip over NNJ that may temporarily put an end to the snow, but we'll see if the stuff behind it expands more...it's kind of close for W CT folks looking at the trajectory.

The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining.

I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now.

Euro also looks interesting for 2/1. Snow to ice over interior.

Jerry is really enjoying his retirement....

Funny you said that....GGEM tries it this run. This is def a pattern that could produce a legit ice storm. They are not easy to get, but this is the type of pattern you want to maximize the odds.

Weenie flakes here for the past 20 min....not remotely steady enough for any accumulations. Radar definitely looks more impressive than I was expecting over E PA/NJ/DE/MD at this point. Lots of 1/4 mile SN/+SN obs in that stuff....so we'll see how it looks in a couple hours.

In your 'hood...prob 9-10pm-ish?

Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs. This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89)

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

Doesn't look like much of anything...maybe a few flurries or showers? Looks prety warm int he BL unless that weak sfc low trends a bit south. Best lift is well north so I'm not expecting much precip in that. Maybe a tenth or two of QPF. NNE could see a band of 3-5"...esp up by powderfreak.

Yep, I mentioned this several times in the past couple of days....the vort is just too far west for the classic big thump on the front end....this will be more like a steady light snow that flips after an inch or two. Slight chance at something more if those beefier echoes move in just in time a couple hours before the flip, but I wouldn't count on it in our area. Further north they'll have that chance.

Yeah they are probably going to slay.....I think we'll get a good system or two as well...but hopefully we don't have to wait until like 2/5. Would be nice to cash one in before that.

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

12z RAP has like 3-4" here while 12z NAM has maybe an inch or less.

LAtest RAP is almost trying to pull a NAM from yesterday....but it looks like an outlier at the moment.

Desperation sets in after a while I think for some. It clouds judgement and then you have emotional hedging too…they might sort of think the pattern is actually fine, but it’s still not super easy to snow even in good patterns (esp southern zones near water), and if it doesn’t this time, it feels like winter is totally shot…so best to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if it pans out.

There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice.

CNE/NNE got their mojo back AWT in this pattern. Hopefully SNE can get going a bit here in the next couple weeks.