ORH_wxman

CC shows the R/S line basically over you. So anything meaningful from here on out should be snow

New HRRR and RAP both went wild on the latest run for eastern areas later.

Those can be way too low though at times if the snow is coming down at anything heavier than light snow...usually it ends up in the middle somewhere. If it stays mostly light snow, then the depth maps are prob pretty decent in a marginal airmass.

Or if it pounds 1-2" per hour S+, then BL temps won't matter....but those solutions haven't really been believable. I'd go 1-2" for most...but there will prob be a few bands that do better.

On the single station menu selection, select "seasonal time series" and then under "options" you choose "average temperature" and then under "period of interest" on that same selection you choose when you want the time series to be for.....I selected "other" and put the date 1/1-1/20 in there. HVN has issues though with all that missing data from 1979-2001. A place like BDR would have the full record.

Hard to say....because even the meh solutions have the CCB going over SNE later, but its a matter of how intense it is. So we'll likely see this developing to our southwest one way or the other....we'll know as it gets closer probably based on how intense it is if it's going to be good or not.

Kraft got pulled over after the 06z run

HRRR is out to 10z run. It’s pretty interesting but not like the 06z NAM.

Steady light snow continues but CC says the R/S line is close.

Smoking some wings while fatties come down…nice wintry afternoon at least. Hopefully tomorrow delivers

I haven’t looked at any of the hovmoller charts but I know the gfs was being a lot more aggressive taking MJO into phase 4 on the RMM plot while EPS was killing the wave into the COD. So not sure if that is playing a role.

It’s bizarre looking…almost what you’d expect when a midlevel low is going over like the south coast of RI but we don’t have that yet. Almost convective looking…

Weird little blowup of precip

Steady light snow here right now…pretty good snow growth too after the first few minutes of tiny flakes. Temp is 33 though so gonna need it to come down harder to really stick

Seems like the EPO ridge is staying further east on the EPS and not retrograding back to WPO territory. It also stays quite poleward which helps. That sucker is way up into the east Siberian sea

Yeah I’m still heading against it but the more guidance that shows it, the more likely it becomes. Even the 12k closed off h5 right as it was passing under us…so there’s a reason to watch it. It takes a lot of things to like to get those big rates. I’m expecting snow for much of SNE tomorrow but I’m leaning toward just steady light snows for the most part that might have trouble accumulating…esp low elevations and further south. But hell, even a bit of a compromise would help in getting 2-3” for many.

@CoastalWx what do you make of EPS today? Seems like a continuity break in LR. That’s a brutally cold look later in the period.

Yeah that’s a hell of a CCB on 3k for SNE. Violent ending. 12k was too far north and only had light snow for several hours.

12k is pretty flaccid

3k NAM might be

Need a good wind storm to rip some dog logs against the chain link fence….clang clang clang

It’s easier to stomach if you accept this winter won’t rally back to near average snow. Just look for a few decent events. I personally would like to grab a good warning event (plus another event of at least advisory) before the pattern flips back to shit and then see if we can grab a big dog in very late Feb or March…then call it a season.

Yeah at like d11. It’s actually looked kind of ugly for a long time since then but the last couple days it started looking like more of a front ender when confluence showed up to our north. Still prob not good for SNE but looks like another big hit for CNE. Hoping for a net gain here but I think I need a slight trend east with the vort max.

Yes prob a good way to view right now…expect nothing, and then if you grab a couple inches it will be a victory. There’s a lot of jet mechanics on the back side of this storm so it will be worth keeping an eye on.

You’ll get some snow tomorrow. Just not sure if it’s a coating or 4 inches.