ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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EPS looked pretty decent for 1/25 at 06z...prob the coldest run I've seen yet on that one. Kind of a classic SWFE look but there's actually just enough cold around to give a good hit....some of them sort of morph it into a miller B but as of now, I am skeptical of that evolution. But a little more confluence and we could see it redevelop soon enough for that.
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These weak echoes have started to produce steady light snow now. Hopefully we can pick up a couple today.
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We missed the changeover by about 10 miles here. Guidance look pretty decent for 1-3” today though along pike so hopefully can grab something later.
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Weathertap?
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Doesn’t shut it off until predawn hours where you are around Saturday. That was an impressive run. Hopefully we keep seeing it ramp up like that on the mesos as we get closer. IVTs often disappoint but once in a while you get a doozy so they keep us on the hook.
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18z euro looked pretty good too tomorrow. I’m always somewhat skeptical of those IVTs but they sometimes can surprise. But you usually need good/intense lift when lower level temps are kind of marginal.
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18z euro looks pretty interesting for interior New England.
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Rays area into SE NH is counting on that 03z to 06z period where it just goes gangbusters for a few hours. We’ll see if that verifies enough to give several inches.
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Yea they are. They’ve been awful this year too more than normal. But just stating what it shows.
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Man that is an absolute furnace for mid-February on weeklies. Total CONUS-wide blowtorch. Funny that it then tries for Ray’s epic ending starting in late February and into March.
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We had a solid coating of sleet here a while ago but we’re just plain cold rain at the moment.
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I think the best chance up in NE MA prior to the IVT is later tonight...that second round of really intense lift seems to collapse the snow line back south into NE MA after about 03z (10pm).
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Yeah if people don't like it, they should log off for a while. Excessive trolling won't be tolerated either...people not here in good faith won't last long (or get post limited)....but otherwise, we will continue to discuss the pattern, even if it is sucky or keeps screwing us.
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Absolutely pelting here now....few mangled flakes mixing in
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18z NAM is the type of solution you want to see to get snow into SNE and even further south....but I'm very skeptical of it at the moment. Perfect needle-threader it needs to be.
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Looks like it has flipped to fatties on the south side of ORH on the holy cross webcam https://www.holycross.edu/webcams/recreation-center
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Yeah I’d roll the dice on that pattern. There will prob be a cutter threat or two but at least in that look, you have a decent chance of turning them into SWFEs or minimizing the warmth from them.
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That run certainly was for snowfall. Pattern is def different though. Hopefully results are similar. Would be funny if Monday actually ended up working out considering it’s the worst of all the looks.
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Pelting sleet back at home now.
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New Ipswich jackpot run
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Driving through downtown Sherborn and windshield is getting pelted.
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Where are you again? Even BDR has never had 3.5” in a season.
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They still had like 4” of snow depth from the first storm prior to blizzard of 78 hitting at Logan airport. I’d be surprised if Cambridge had nothing. ORH still had 11” of pack.
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People getting overly invested in crappy setups (1/23 and 1/25) Nothing beyond that has changed.
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The longevity of the pattern change can be debated, but lets not pretend it's not a pattern change. I actually agree February is probably going to revert back to typical Feb Nina climo....but ignoring the fundamental shift in the NHEM pattern at least for a while post-1/25 isn't being honest.
