ORH_wxman

Not really. It does get a little back that way though.

06z euro really crushes PYM county. Much more than 00z.

RAP and HRRR both hammer the cape with like 8-12” on clown maps. Lol. Prob overdone because ratios will be a lot less. Still….gonna have to watch if there’s a more intense band with good lift as that will cool the lower levels pretty efficiently underneath one of those.

Hopefully some of the mesos can jump on board. I do agree with eduggs that the satellite and radar look kind of decent…hopefully not just weenie goggles which might get enhanced via desperation in an awful winter to date.

I think I’d be cautiously optimistic for N Conway over the next 7-10 days. Still a risk thursday totally shits the bed up there but less likely than a couple days ago.

Yeah that run threw a little band back there. Hopefully it has a clue. Would be fun to even get a long duration 2-3” event. Just give it a festive look and feel. Something we haven’t had much of this winter.

Total QPF

Stubborn Euro. 18z not really backing down.

That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs.

Need that little PV lobe-arm north of maine to be pressing a bit more. But that map isn’t that bad…euro did give the pike northward a good hit in that. I’m skeptical of that system though because the antecedent airmass is mostly crap. Classic loom to trend north.

It got pretty damned cold in early January actually. December was def a furnace though that winter. ORH had 4 out of 5 days with highs in the teens between Jan 6-10, 2015 with a low of -6. The highest temp between Jan 6-17 was 34F. Then we got a monster cutter on Jan 18-19 which set off all the bridge jumpers after we had the legit cold already in place.

I like the PV in the eastern parts of Hudson Bay though. Classic cold gradient look. But I’m not getting expectations up until I actually see it.

We e had light snow here off and on for the past hour. The best is just east of me though.

It’s got something brewing but that event has all sorts of problems too. Until a true arctic airmass gets into New England, any systems coming up through the Oh valley is going to be a problem…:barring perfect timing on confluence.

No problem…I’d say it’s fine to still be concerned. It could easily look worse for us as we get closer. I’m not buying in yet either. I want to see those arctic airmasses spill over into New England first before getting hyped up for potential snow events.

Euro trying to dump on pike-northward for next Thursday night. Still not buying that though. I think that one can be good for NNE though.

Depends where the PV is….if it’s in Hudson Bay or eastward, that is pretty good for us. We’ve seen that pattern before and done well in it. It’s not a 2015 look, but very few patterns are. If PV drops into like Alberta or something, then it’s a lot worse because we won’t get fresh arctic airmasses in here ahead of any potential SWFEs (which often turn into cutters if you have weak or not confluence and a bad antecedent airmass)

Of those heavy bands rotate in, they should be at least pretty close to 10 to 1. But I’m still skeptical of the big lift needed. If we can get some good model consistency on showing big omega, then I’ll start jumping on board for a warning event in SE areas….but this feels like one’s of those systems that might be disorganized.

I think you have a point in the “certainty” aspect. But I disagree with the magnitude of your claim. Very frequently, we can see better setups coming in advance. If people take that as a claim that good snow events are definitely going to happen, then it’s on them, not the original poster…unless the original poster is making those claims. Pattern talk is inherently going to be less certain than discussing a synoptic setup 4-5 days out…I think most understand that. There’s a reason that very often you’ll see the phrase “let’s get that inside of 10 days…” or some iteration of that. We used to have a separate thread for just pattern talk a few years back that you may or may not recall, but it seems like it always eventually just got smeared into the monthly threads so we stopped doing them.

The 1988-89 through 1991-92 winters are unmatched in ORH in the record for futility. Just an utterly brutal stretch. Not a single 10”+ storm in 4 consecutive winters (no other period in the record has even 3 winters in a row…nevermind 4)

While I agree we’ve mostly verified crappy looks (exception was we did get a nice pattern for about 10-12 days in December but didn’t cash in outside of CNE/NNE), there’s no reason to go post-modern and say the extended doesn’t look good when it actually does. We can obviously discuss whether we think it will verify or not, but as shown, it’s a much colder look than we’ve had.

We really want a good antecedent airmass for these to produce. Airmass out ahead is pretty crappy. It’s cold enough for snow if you get perfect timing but counting on perfect timing is a fools errand most of the time. GGEM actually gives a lot of SNE a pelletfest with some snow at the end.

There was a distinct trend yesterday but it was fleeting. The only way to make that system snow is to time the confluence perfectly. That’s plausible but unlikely.

I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is.