ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It’s def snow on that panel…but yeah, I get not getting invested in a day 8 OP run.
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That map doesn’t have ptype on it.
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Decent band rotating toward north shore/Cape Anne.
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Some of that may be bright banding but not all.
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Once those big dog echoes hit, it should start sticking much faster I think.
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I think upper cape and PYM county are starting to look pretty good on this. Nowcast for sure but those are some big echoes moving west.
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Let’s get a GFS/Euro compromise. Steal a warning event for the pike.
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Yeah that stuff near ACK is the type of precip we want to see get onshore to get good amounts.
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Not really. It does get a little back that way though.
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06z euro really crushes PYM county. Much more than 00z.
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RAP and HRRR both hammer the cape with like 8-12” on clown maps. Lol. Prob overdone because ratios will be a lot less. Still….gonna have to watch if there’s a more intense band with good lift as that will cool the lower levels pretty efficiently underneath one of those.
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Hopefully some of the mesos can jump on board. I do agree with eduggs that the satellite and radar look kind of decent…hopefully not just weenie goggles which might get enhanced via desperation in an awful winter to date.
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I think I’d be cautiously optimistic for N Conway over the next 7-10 days. Still a risk thursday totally shits the bed up there but less likely than a couple days ago.
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Yeah that run threw a little band back there. Hopefully it has a clue. Would be fun to even get a long duration 2-3” event. Just give it a festive look and feel. Something we haven’t had much of this winter.
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Total QPF
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Stubborn Euro. 18z not really backing down.
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That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs.
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Need that little PV lobe-arm north of maine to be pressing a bit more. But that map isn’t that bad…euro did give the pike northward a good hit in that. I’m skeptical of that system though because the antecedent airmass is mostly crap. Classic loom to trend north.
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It got pretty damned cold in early January actually. December was def a furnace though that winter. ORH had 4 out of 5 days with highs in the teens between Jan 6-10, 2015 with a low of -6. The highest temp between Jan 6-17 was 34F. Then we got a monster cutter on Jan 18-19 which set off all the bridge jumpers after we had the legit cold already in place.
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I like the PV in the eastern parts of Hudson Bay though. Classic cold gradient look. But I’m not getting expectations up until I actually see it.
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We e had light snow here off and on for the past hour. The best is just east of me though.
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It’s got something brewing but that event has all sorts of problems too. Until a true arctic airmass gets into New England, any systems coming up through the Oh valley is going to be a problem…:barring perfect timing on confluence.
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No problem…I’d say it’s fine to still be concerned. It could easily look worse for us as we get closer. I’m not buying in yet either. I want to see those arctic airmasses spill over into New England first before getting hyped up for potential snow events.
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Euro trying to dump on pike-northward for next Thursday night. Still not buying that though. I think that one can be good for NNE though.
