ORH_wxman

I’d be pretty surprised if anyone got more than 2 or 3 inches. Most will prob just get a C-1” type deal. You want solid lift for at least 6 hours if we’re talking plowable and most guidance is keeping the goods offshore.

Yeah yesterday was reversed at 18z…12k was lame and the 3k went wild. Lol. At least we have something to track.

It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different.

NAM def more robust. Rips the band back to like 495 Sunday night. Prob high end advisory to low end warning down near the Canal this run.

Our shittiest patterns often occur with west coast troughiness but we have a lot of patterns/winters where we still score fine with it (2010-2011 being the chief example….but also years like ‘16-17, ‘07-08, and ‘08-09) But yeah, always smart to keep expectations low and then be pleasantly surprised if things break positive.

Don’t count on a +PNA this winter. But that’s at least a look where there’s a lot of arctic cold around. I’m sure there will still be cutters but we can score well in that pattern too. Just hope we finally catch a couple breaks.

06z euro was pretty nice for the Cape area to maybe adjacent parts of PYM county…does get a few inches for ORH-eastward too

All iced up outside. Almost seems like a HECS this winter to have something impactful.

I feel like that event is a tease for SNE and it will end up north….but as you said, we’re kind of due for one to break right, even if only for part of SNE. But that one has a marginal setup/airmass so I’m not getting too invested.

I think it’s pretty much do or die time by roughly 1/25 on the pattern. We need to catch a break and put up a crooked number on the scoreboard by the end of the month or we’re not recovering to a respectable seasonal number. It would’ve awesome to steal a few inches this weekend and then steal a low end warning event next Thursday but there’s a decent chance both don’t pan out which leaves the clock ticking…we are down the final week of January…and while the pattern looks pretty good, you can easily still miss.

Yes.

The guidance post-12z seems to be trending more toward the round 2 stuff and less emphasis on that initial band in round 1 on Sunday afternoon. We’ll see if 00z keeps that up or reverses trends. It’s been a pretty volatile system on guidance.

Coming west with the bigger band on Sunday too. Though again, it remained the eastern outlier at 12z so it had to come west…hitting the cape by 48h. Not sure if it will reach BOS this run.

Yeah it hammered almost all of E MA from ORH eastward. There was a pretty good gradient just west of ORH though where the dryslot was able to punch in from the SW and they also didn’t get some of the heaviest bands that developed at the height of the storm. That CCB band at the end collapsing SE that dumped like 8” in two hours is what put it over the top from a run-of-the-mill 15 incher to a 2 footer. Further west missed most of that band.

Lets not get hyperbolic....after a summer GTG on the golf course with me, Bob, and a few edibles with Ginxy meeting us for a beer afterwards, I will enamor you with tales of Feb 5, 2001 to Jan 12, 2011 to even Feb 1983 if we have to stoop to such levels.... you'll be ready to run through a wall again searching for that W CT HECS.

Lower levels should cool quite quickly tonight...I'd expect most everyone is at or below freezing by 09z outside of the coastal spots. So any snow that is in the 09z-15z time range early tomorrow should stick. I don't really expect much of anything in that time range, but should it materialize, it should be cold enough for something better than white rain.

It has the Monday round 2 snows too that are more widespread...kind of like at 12z.

18z RAP had a little snow too....but again, nothing like the HRRR

Like it brought an inch from ORH to maybe Windham county near Garth...you get a little less, like maybe a half inch verbatim. Gvies Scooter to N RI like 3 inches though, lol. It's prob on crack, but might as well keep an eye out. 3k had a little bit in eastern areas but not like the HRRR

3k was trying to get some precip into eastern areas overnight tonight too...not the full blown advisory snow event that the HRRR had, but maybe some light sleet/snow for a time.

Yeah on Monday night....lol. This whole setup is kind of a clown show. I don't expect model guidance to be consistent on this, so we're kind of going old school with each model cycle....back to the 1990s and early 2000s when you'd have 100 mile shifts inside of 48 hours.

It’s just nice to maybe get a pattern where we can track stuff. Hell we are already tracking a couple potential threats.

I feel like this could wobble a lot from run to run because the E vs W trend isn’t solely reliant on normal shortwave mechanics. It’s this elongated massive ULL with a lot of vort lobes rotating around.

Lol. Slays E MA

NAM coming in solidly east of 12z.