ORH_wxman

That’s a definite possibility. Lot of solid upper level energy hanging back so I think there’s something to it. These can be fickle though so I won’t really look closely at it until tomorrow or even Thursday.

This 1/17-1/24 pattern is a little bit better than earlier this month so I’d be pretty optimistic where you are. The airmasses aren’t quite as putrid as early January (though they are far from ideal). It’s definitely like a step-down look to the pattern where SNE starts looking a lot more favorable the final week of the month while NNE looks very good a full week before. We’ll see. Like you, I’m almost still expecting the other shoe to drop…not because of anything scientific or empirical I can point to…but sometimes seasons start grating on your expectations. Kind of like the reverse of a year like 2015 where you keep expecting everything to break your way after the 3rd or 4th storm…but even in years like that it eventually shifted. Seemed like south of us (and south coast of SNE) really started catching the breaks after mid-February that year.

I wouldn’t get optimistic on 1/23 at this point. Except maybe if I was up by powderfreak. That event could easily cut. But then again, we’re kind of “due” to get a break on one of those….but being “due” doesn’t increase your chances unfortunately, lol. 1/25-26 has a better shot imho and the period beyond that is much colder than previous so I like that timeframe too. Obviously we’re already tracking stuff between 1/19 and 1/25 so people don’t want to hear about the pattern beyond that, but I’m personally keeping expectations low in SNE over the next week.

Yes. 12z partially phased northern and southern streams which allows 1/23 to go nuts. We’d need a perfect thread the needle to get hit here….CNE/NNE get it on this run…they have a little more wiggle room but there’s still a risk of a stronger phase which would make it more of a pure cutter. But regardless, it allows us to reset the baroclinic zone further south for the next system so there’s some utility with 1/23 even if the system itself isn’t very snowy.

Nice middle finger going up the I-95 corridor south of New England.

Yeah this is an excellent pattern for NNE and hopefully filtering down into SNE with time as we get some better airmasses. Very active pattern.

1/25-26 will be a good hit this run for SNE I think. That’s prob the first one that has a realistic chance of being good here. Beyond that looks more favorable but at least with 1/25, we have some better looking upper levels with the PV getting closer and trying to intrude into Quebec.

NAM? That’s a D6 depiction. There’s actually an ongoing new thread for the Thursday system.

That one was run out of my basement….GGEM has to be the best model for phantom weenie snow

Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015….

I’m tossing the Canadian guidance on this. Cold/southern outliers.

GFS really hitting the IVT with the upper level energy hanging back. Always tough to buy into that but when you see good upper level support, you don’t want to ignore it either.

Yeah so basically 1956 ending…like I said. Agreed that would save it but even an awesome longwave pattern is unlikely to produce that result again.

I mean, if I’m still sitting in single digit snowfall by mid February, even a great March won’t save it from ratter…maybe late Feb/March 1956 here would save it, but that’s a pretty big bar to clear, lol.

Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up.

We’ll see how the storm threats start looking post-1/25….we’ve def seen a bit of a sag south in the snow gradient compared to earlier this month. But for SNE to do well with western troughing, we want to see that PV get down into Hudson Bay or Quebec. That happens on pretty much all ensemble guidance around the 25th so we may actually have some good antecedent airmasses after that time. 1/19-20 and 1/23-24 are uphill battles due to the lack of good antecedent airmasses and storms coming out of the OH valley.

It was about the best possible type of snow for a small event for kids to play in. We had about 2” or so but the piles from shoveling seem more like a 4-6” snowfall. Very dense snow.

You’re in a great spot. I really like the CON to PWM corridor in this one for a solid low end warning event.

RGEM is pretty cold. Lot of snow for the pike region. Not changing my thought based off of that run, but something to note in case other guidance comes in colder too.

The IVT alone may give many 2”…even down into SNE. Though better odds north of of pike. The main slug looks like mostly rain south of NH border…close for you but I’m still pretty leery of another tick or two warmer/north which takes you out of that part of the storm.

Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be.

I’d feel decent north of MA/NH border for Thursday. I’m punting down here though in the pike region until we’re much closer. This has one of those CON to PWM type vibes.

There were like sub-PV lobes in western Canada after Xmas. The bulk of the cold in the NHEM was not on our side of the pole after that Xmas arctic shot (were talking like last week of Dec through mid-Jan currently). That is going to change. So now, at least if/when we get a cutter in the newer pattern, there’s some legit cold behind it to try and reload again for the next threat. The past few weeks, we’d get a cutter and the temp behind it would still be pretty mild.

What I’m saying is I don’t think it was clear whether he meant the pattern beyond that. If he’s referring to the Jan 23-24 system and the cold shot behind it, it’s possible that ends up mirroring the Dec 23-25 period. But beyond Jan 24, things look a lot different than that. Pattern broke down to torchy shortly after Xmas, and this time it appears we’re getting a significantly colder look for late January.